The Scouting Report: Braves vs Padres, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Mike Yastrzemski
LF Mauricio Dubón
SS Jim Jarvis
RF Brewer Hicklen

Quick thoughts:

• The Braves keep the exact same starting nine, but move some of them around. Mike Yastrzemski at DH for a second straight day might come close to signaling the end of Dominic Smith.

San Diego Padres Lineup

RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
DH Luis Rengifo
3B Manny Machado
1B Ty France
CF Jackson Merrill
C Luis Campusano
SS Xander Bogaerts
2B Jake Cronenworth
LF Jase Bowen

Quick thoughts:

• Rengifo’s been pretty hot so far in this series and San Diego’s moving him up to the #2 spot with a lefty on the mound for the Braves.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (6-6, 3.54 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.54 ERA / 4.61 xERA / 4.43 FIP

• 18.6% K / 9.6% BB / 9.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 54% sinker, 25% changeup, 14% cutter, 6% curveball, 1% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 33% changeup, 28% cutter, 23% sinker, 9% curveball, 7% four-seamer

What to watch:

• What does Pérez look like after the injured list stint - only taking the minimum 15 days- is this a “now I’m well-rested for the stretch run” scenario, or is this a “now I’m rusty from being limited to toss sessions and bullpens” scenario?

Who to watch:

• There’s a handful of Padres that have faced Pérez ten or more times, and as always, Manny Machado’s dangerous here - 7-21 with a homer and three RBI, OPSing 1.005.

Opposing Starter: RHP Michael King (6-7, 3.34 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.34 ERA / 4.62 xERA / 4.10 FIP

• 20.7 K% / 9.7 BB% / 11.0% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (29%, 92.9 mph)

• Changeup (27%, 86.3 mph)

• Sweeper (19%, 81.9 mph)

• Four-seamer (19%, 94.0 mph)

• Slider (5%, 84.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A horizontal game for King, focused on changeups and sinkers away from lefties, four-seamers up, and sweepers in, with the occasional slider down. King increases usage of the changeup when ahead, dropping the sinker and sweeper, while that sweeper gets the most run as a strike stealer early and when he’s behind in the count.

vs RHH: A sinker/sweeper-based package with more sweepers when ahead (at the expense of the sinker, reversing the trend when behind) and increased four-seam and changeup usage with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Nobody has a ton of experience off of King on Atlanta’s roster, and the only one to take him deep is Ozzie Albies, who is 1-5 with that homer and three RBI.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• The leverage arms have all gotten two days off and should be good to go after their back-to-backs over the weekend.

Used recently:

• Danny Young has had a day of rest after Monday’s 13-pitch outing and should be good to go, but Victor Mederos is likely ticketed for one more after throwing 29 pitches

  • Unless Mederos needs to pinch-hit for someone, obviously.

Potential limitations:

• JR Ritchie ate the majority of last night’s leftover innings and then was optioned down today, so there’s likely no one that is outright unavailable for game three.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta should be good to cover the rest of tonight’s outing if it’s a normal five-and-dive for Martín Pérez.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Longman Matt Waldron is well-rested and hopefully it’s enough of a blowout that we get to see some knuckleballs in Truist Park tonight.

Used recently:

• Lefty Wandy Peralta has had a day of rest since the back half of his back-to-back, while fellow lefty Kyle Hart had a day and should be good to come back, as well. Closer Mason Miller threw 21 pitches last night but it’s unlikely that they hold him out of a potential win.

Potential Limitations

• Bradgley Rodriguez has pitched back-to-back in the series and is likely down, while lefty Yuki Matsui has 40 pitches in the last three days and could likely use a breather.

Quick takeaway:

• The Padres have the pieces they need, but none of them are that fresh after they’ve almost all been used so far in this series.

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What to Watch Today

• King faced Atlanta on June 22nd and pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out five with no walks and scattering six hits (all singles) in a 1-0 Padres win. Can Atlanta have more success against the righty on a second look?

Final Thought

Braves are, somehow, a favorite at -118 on the moneyline and with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. I’m skeptical, though, given the issues Atlanta had at generating any runs against King when they faced him last month. I hope I’m wrong.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.