The Scouting Report: Braves vs Padres, Game Four

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 12:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with their normal RHP-oriented lineup despite a lefty opener for San Diego.

San Diego Padres Lineup

RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
LF Luis Rengifo
3B Manny Machado
1B Ty France
SS Xander Bogaerts
DH Gavin Sheets
C Freddy Fermin
CF Jase Bowen
2B Jake Cronenworth

Quick thoughts:

• It’s a day off for Jackson Merrill, as Luis Rengifo takes over left field so that Jase Bowen can spend a day in center.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (10-6, 2.06 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.06 ERA / 3.32 xERA / 2.72 FIP

• 28.9% K / 5.9% BB / 23.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 39% slider, 31% sinker, 29% four-seamer, 1% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch:

• Chris Sale is Chris Sale - there’s not typically a lot of concern here, other than how deep will he go in the game.

Who to watch:

• Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Manny Machado is a dangerous matchup for Sale today: .357 average with a homer and two RBI in 28 ABs against the veteran. Other notables include Sale’s former Boston teammate Xander Bogaerts (.318 avg w/ one homer and two RBI in 22 ABs) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (4-12, one HR)

Opposing Bulk Arm: RHP Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.67 ERA)

(The San Diego Padres are going with LHP Kyle Hurt as an opener)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.67 ERA / 4.94 xERA / 4.81 FIP

• 22.3 K% / 12.1 BB% / 10.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (26%, 94.4 mph)

• Slider (24%, 87.4 mph)

• Changeup (23%, 90.0 mph)

• Sinker (11%, 93.6 mph)

• Cutter (7%, 89.8 mph)

• Curveball (6%, 81.3 mph)

• Sweeper (4%, 86.3 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A mostly three-pitch mix without a lot of variability - it’s four-seam/changeup/slider, mostly, with sprinklings of the rest of his pitches.

vs RHH: A more robust and variable slider-based arsenal, one that ramps up knuckle curve use when ahead (at the expense of sinkers and cutters), four-seam and changeup when he gets to two strikes, and swaps sliders for cutters when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Mauricio Dubón is 3-8 off of Canning, while Matt Olson’s homered twice and drove in three but is otherwise hitting just .211 across 19 ABs.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Elieser Hernández is the only Braves reliever who hasn’t pitched in this series, so if things line up well, Atlanta can hopefully get him some run in this one.

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias (12 pitches), Dylan Lee (14 pitches), and Dylan Dodd (11 pitches) can all come back for the finale, if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes threw 37 pitches to cover two innings last night and is most certainly down for the finale.

Quick takeaway:

• Let’s hope that Chris Sale can give his usual seven or so innings, but the Braves have the pieces they need to finish the game if he comes out earlier.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Longman Matt Waldron is the only Padres reliever that hasn’t pitched in this series.

Used recently:

• Lefty Yuki Matsui and closer Mason Miller got last night off, so they should both be good to go for the finale.

Potential Limitations

• Lefty Adrian Morejon has pitched back-to-back days and should probably be unavailable for the finale, while Wandy Peralta has thrown three of the last four days. However, with Kyle Hart opening the game and Yuki Matsui not being a leverage reliever, does San Diego ask either Morejon to come back on a third straight game or ask Peralta to pitch a fourth time in five days? The alternative is giving Matsui a leverage inning. We’ll see what they choose to do.

Quick takeaway:

• The Padres have most of the pieces they need, but none of them are that fresh after they’ve almost all been used so far in this series and their setup options are a bit slim.

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What to Watch Today

• Canning faced Atlanta at home in June and got obliterated - four runs on four hits and a walk in just two-thirds of an inning, throwing forty pitches. Does he fare better today after lefty Kyle Hart takes care of the top of the order, or is this going to be a similar outcome for the one-time Brave?

Final Thought

Braves are a strong favorite at -260 on the moneyline and with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of eight runs. It’s hard to feel bad about Atlanta’s chances on Chris Sale Day, admittedly.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.