The Scouting Report: Braves vs Padres, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Mike Yastrzemski
RF Brewer Hicklen
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Mike Yastrzemski, who was activated from the injured list today, is back in the lineup and hitting seventh.

San Diego Padres Lineup

RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
2B Jake Cronenworth
3B Manny Machado
1B Ty France
CF Jackson Merrill
C Luis Campusano
LF Gavin Sheets
SS Xander Bogaerts
DH Luis Rengifo

Quick thoughts:

• San Diego reorients their lineup with a righty on the mound for the Braves, moving Jake Cronenworth up and Jackson Merrill down; Luis Campusano checks in behind the plate and bats 6th.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (4-2, 3.50 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.50 ERA / 4.51 xERA / 4.30 FIP

• 20.8% K / 9.6% BB / 11.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 27% slider, 16% curveball, 5% changeup

• vs RHH: 61% four-seamer, 35% slider, 4% curveball, <1% changeup

What to watch:

• Ever since finding his mechanics again, López has quietly been an above-average performer in the rotation - a 3.50 ERA across four starts, with just four walks and fifteen strikeouts. But of those seven earned runs, four of them came his last time out, when the Cardinals knocked him out of the game after just four innings of a 4-1 road loss. More whiffs and some length would be nice for the Braves to get out of Reynaldo.

Who to watch:

• No Padres hitters are doing exemplary in their extended looks against López, but there are some small sample size shenanigans at play here - catcher Freddy Fermin is 2-3 with an RBI, while infielder Luis Rengifo is 2-6 with a homer and three RBI and outfielder Gavin Sheets is 2-5.

Opposing Starter: RHP Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.36 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.36 ERA / 4.51 xERA / 4.35 FIP

• 20.9 K% / 9.0 BB% / 11.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Cutter (24%, 90.2 mph)

• Four-seamer (21%, 94.0 mph)

• Sinker (17%, 94.1 mph)

• Curveball (11%, 78.3 mph)

• Slider (11%, 87.0 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 89.0 mph)

• Sweeper (7%, 82.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A multi-fastball-based ‘kitchen sink’ mix that ramps up changeup and knuckle curve use when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of cutters), but reverses those usage trends when behind.

vs RHH: A multi-fastball-based ‘kitchen sink’ mix that ramps up slider and sweeper use when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of sinkers and cutters), but reverses those usage trends when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• It’s a big day to be an Austin Riley fan. The slugger is 5-9 with a homer and two RBI off of Buehler in their respective careers, while Michael Harris II is 3-5 with an RBI.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• JR Ritchie, Tyler Kinley, and Elieser Hernandez are all fresh, having gotten multiple days off.

Used recently:

• Today’s the first day I imagine some of the leverage arms that did back-to-backs over the weekend are available, although I’m sure the Braves would love to avoid throwing the same guy three times in four days if they can avoid it.

Potential limitations:

• Last night’s Player of the Game, Victor Mederos, is likely down for at least a day or two, while Dylan Lee might get the night off after throwing 45 pitches on Saturday and Sunday.

Quick takeaway:

• Shoutout Mederos for buying most of the bullpen a breather. With Martín Pérez likely being activated for tomorrow’s start, it sure would be nice to have a big enough lead where they can get some innings out of Hernandez before he’s sent back to Gwinnett in the morning.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• None of the leverage arms have thrown since Friday, so there’s plenty of late-inning availability if San Diego has a lead in this one.

Used recently:

• Lefty Kyle Hart threw 20 pitches last night, so while I’m sure they’d love to give him the night off, he’s probably on the table if needed tonight….

Potential Limitations

• …especially because fellow lefty Wandy Peralta is likely down after throwing back-to-back games between Sunday and Monday.

Quick takeaway:

• The Padres have all-universe closer Mason Miller available, if they can get him the ball with a lead.

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What to Watch Today

• Walker Buehler has not been good recently, allowing 20 runs in his last three outings, walking nine and giving up 17 hits (6 of those homers). Even worse for the Padres is he’s done that in just 11 innings, so if the pattern follows tonight, they’re going to be getting deep into that bullpen.

  • A diminished version of Buehler pitched in Truist Park last year while a member of the Boston Red Sox and was obliterated - five runs on ten hits in 5.2 innings, being taken deep by both Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña Jr.

• Buehler’s been vulnerable to righty power, allowing them a .454 slug and eight of his 12 homers on the season.

Final Thought

Braves are a favorite at -146 on the moneyline and with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. What kind of length can Reynaldo López give the Braves, and can a stumbling Buehler keep the ball in the yard?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.