The Scouting Report: Braves vs Phillies, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 77° and partially cloudy, wind NNW at 9 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II

Quick thoughts:

• No changes from the standard lineup for Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies

SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis Garcia (R)
2B Edmundo Sosa (R)
C J.T. Realmuto (R)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
CF Justin Crawford (L)
LF Otto Kemp (R)

Quick thoughts:

• I imagine that veteran Brandon Marsh will be substituting in for Otto Kemp as soon as Martín Pérez is out of the game.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Martín Pérez (0-1, 3.14 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.14 ERA / 3.84 xERA / 4.07 FIP

• 11.3 K% / 7.5 BB% / 1.9% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 32% changeup, 30% cutter, 21% sinker, 11% curveball, 5% four-seam

  • vs LHH: 60% sinker, 28% changeup, 7% cutter, 5% curveball

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Nothing, really. His cutter usage is slightly down (-5%), replaced by more four-seamers and curveballs, but he’s mostly the same pitcher he was in 2025.

What to watch:

• Know who was tied for 11th best hitter in all of baseball against sinkers last year at a +2.4 RV/100? Kyle Schwarber. The lefty hit .330 with a .648 slug and smashed seven homers off the pitch, so maybe don’t leave one of those up, yeah?

  • He was also Philly’s best hitter against changeups (+1.3RV/100), too, so…good luck?

• Alec Bohm is towards the bottom of the order, but it’s not because of a lack of success off of Pérez: He’s 8-17 with a homer in his career against the southpaw.

  • Trea Turner is hitting .357 with a homer in four RBI in just 14 at-bats, as well.

Opposing Starter: RHP Taijuan Walker (1-2, 7.36)

Quick snapshot:

• 7.36 ERA / 6.57 xERA / 6.51 FIP

• 16.9 K% / 9.9 BB% / 5.6% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Splitter (86.7 mph, 28% usage)

• Sinker (91.4 mph, 20% usage)

• Cutter (86.2 mph, 17% usage)

• Curveball (74.2 mph, 14% usage)

• Slider (81.2 mph, 12% usage)

• Four-seamer (91.5 mph, 9%)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: splitters when ahead early, but fastballs when he NEEDS a strike

35% splitter, 18% curveball, 17% cutter, 14% sinker, 11% four-seamer, 5% slider

vs RHH: please sir, can I have a groundball?

33% sinker, 26% slider, 16% cutter, 11% splitter, 7% curveball, 6% four-seamer

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Several Braves regulars are…okay against Walker in their careers over 10+ ABs: Ronald Acuña Jr. is hitting .250, while Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson are at .231 and none of them have a homer.

  • Austin Riley, however, has 15 career ABs with five hits, including a homer.

• Braves who hit splitters well last year include Austin Riley (6.7 RV/100) and Matt Olson (2.3 RV/100), while Ronald Acuña Jr.(-1.7 RV/100), Michael Harris II (-1.4), Ozzie Albies (-0.9), and Drkae Baldwin (-0.8) all struggled.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Ian Hamilton, who was added to the roster prior to the road trip, hasn’t thrown since last Saturday.

Used recently:

• Atlanta threw the leverage arms on Wednesday, but none of them had workloads that would prevent them from pitching today.

Potential limitations:

• None

Quick takeaway:

• With an off day on Thursday, the bullpen’s been essentially reset for manager Walt Weiss.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Jhoan Duran hasn’t pitched since Saturday and setup men Brad Keller (Tuesday) and Orion Kerkering (Monday) are well rested, as well.

Used recently:

• Jose Alvarado threw 11 pitches on Wednesday, but with an off day on Thursday, he’s good to go.

Potential limitations:

• Kyle Bachus will be down today, as he still needs a day from Wednesday’s bulk role.

Quick takeaway:

• Other than their long man, Philly is fully rested and ready for the series.

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What to Watch Today

• If there’s any game in this series that projects to be high-scoring, it’s this one. Just feels like a bad matchup for both pitchers. While the Braves are favored (FanDuel), this one could honestly go either way.

• The bullpen feels extra important tonight, given the abbreviated nature of some of Pérez’s outings. If he gets in trouble early, Walt Weiss has shown that he has a quick hook and isn’t afraid to mix and match with the bullpen the rest of the way.

Final Thought

Enjoy this one, because it’s the only game of the series that is being broadcast on BravesVision. Fox on Saturday and another Peacock game on Sunday.