It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s back to their likely playoff lineup here, with Yastrzemski in left (versus a right-handed starter, at least) and Murphy behind the plate.
Philadelphia Phillies Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
RF Bryce Harper
2B Luis Arraez
1B Alec Bohm
3B Edmundo Sosa
LF Bryan De La Cruz
C J.T. Realmuto
CF Derek Hill
Quick thoughts:
Against a lefty, Bryson Stott gets the day off and Hill/De La Cruz check in for Crawford and Marsh in the outfield.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (14-9, 2.10 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.10 ERA / 3.06 xERA / 2.26 FIP
30.6% K / 4.8% BB / 25.8% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 39% slider, 34% sinker, 27% four-seamer, 1% changeup
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 40% slider, 14% changeup, 1% sinker
What to watch:
Sale enters another heavyweight matchup in peak form. Over his last five starts, all against teams currently positioned for the postseason, he has a 2.18 ERA and 1.55 FIP across 33 innings. This will already be his fourth start against Philadelphia this season; he has allowed three earned runs in 19 innings across the first three.
Last Friday, Sale dramatically increased the slider. He threw 52 sliders among 103 pitches, a 50.5% rate compared with 39.9% for the season. The pitch produced a 37.5% whiff rate and .208 xwOBA. Philadelphia has now seen a very specific blueprint, so Sale may need to alter when the slider arrives even if he doesn’t reduce it substantially.
The four-seamer created almost all of last week’s dangerous contact. Sale threw 30, and Philadelphia went 2-for-4 with a double and home run in plate appearances ending on it—both extra-base hits belonging to Alec Bohm. Sale’s four-seamer remains good over the full season, but Bohm supplied a reminder that 95–96 mph becomes hittable when Sale misses over the plate.
There isn’t a meaningful platoon or times-through-the-order escape hatch. Righties have a .568 OPS and .257 wOBA against Sale; lefties are at .619 and .276. His opponent wOBA has barely changed from the first trip (.258) to the second (.257) or third (.267). Philadelphia cannot simply wait for him to tire.
The Phillies against Sale:
The good: Alec Bohm (7-for-21, HR, .888 OPS), Trea Turner (7-for-22, .830 OPS), Kyle Schwarber (5-for-22, 2 HR, .883 OPS), Luis Arraez (6-for-19, .737 OPS)
The bad: Bryce Harper (2-for-18, .222 OPS), J.T. Realmuto (2-for-16, .426 OPS), Edmundo Sosa (3-for-18, .417 OPS), Bryan De La Cruz (1-for-6, .500 OPS)
Opposing Starter: RHP Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.76 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.76 ERA / 3.97 xERA / 4.72 FIP
24.4 K% / 7.8 BB% / 16.6% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Curveball: 33%, 78.4 mph
Four-seamer: 24%, 92.3 mph
Sinker: 18%, 91.6 mph
Changeup: 16%, 85.6 mph
Cutter: 8%, 86.2 mph
Slider: 1%, 83.2 mph
Atlanta’s path against Nola:
Nola’s stabilization is real, but the 2.31 ERA slightly overstates it. Over his last eight starts, he has allowed two runs or fewer seven times while posting a 2.31 ERA across 46⅔ innings. His FIP during that stretch is 3.93, however, and he has still allowed seven home runs. Last Sunday was the best version: seven innings, four hits and one earned run against Atlanta.
The primary adjustment has been exchanging sinkers for changeups. Since July 28, Nola has increased his changeup usage from approximately 14% to 21% while cutting his sinker from 19.5% to 15.8%. The change is particularly pronounced against lefties, who have seen it 25.8% of the time during the turnaround, compared with 11.5% for righties.
Atlanta should still hunt the fastball family. For the season, Nola has allowed a .445 wOBA on his four-seamer, .454 on the sinker and .473 on the cutter. The changeup has allowed a .231 wOBA and the knuckle curve .249. His 32 home runs allowed are already a career high. The rebound has reduced the frequency of damaging fastballs, not transformed their quality.
The changeup’s recent results contain some regression risk. Since July 28, hitters have a .196 wOBA but .301 xwOBA against it. They have yet to record an extra-base hit, but its 23.9% whiff rate isn’t overwhelming. Atlanta’s lefties should respect the pitch without treating every changeup as unhittable.
The curveball remains the pitch Atlanta cannot chase. It owns a 42.3% season whiff rate and .222 xwOBA. Nola threw 31 curves Sunday—one-third of his pitches—and Atlanta missed on 31.8% of its swings against it. If Braves hitters expand beneath the zone, Nola can again avoid exposing the fastballs that have caused most of his trouble.
The second look has been Nola’s most vulnerable. Opponents have a .331 wOBA the first time through, rising to .360 on the second trip before settling at .345 on the third. Atlanta failed to exploit that window Sunday; Nola faced 21 batters before allowing his only run.
The Braves against Nola:
The good: Austin Riley (22-for-62, 6 HR, 1.111 OPS), Ronald Acuña Jr. (19-for-56, 4 HR, 1.076 OPS), Matt Olson (9-for-38, 4 HR, .988 OPS), Mike Yastrzemski (5-for-16, HR, 1.046 OPS), Drake Baldwin (4-for-8, 1.056 OPS)
Additional power success: Michael Harris II (7-for-32, 3 HR, .820 OPS)
The bad: Sean Murphy (3-for-14, .500 OPS), Kyle Farmer (1-for-7, .393 OPS), Ha-Seong Kim (1-for-5, .533 OPS)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A well-distributed mix that devolves into knuckle curve and some fastballs with two strikes. The four-seamer is the primary fastball early in the at-bat, with the sinker being a secondary player, but usage is close to even with two strikes.
vs RHH: A well-distributed mix that prioritizes 50% knuckle curves with two strikes. The sinker is the primary fastball early here, although usage is almost even with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Atlanta should have full availability of their leverage arms today, given that they were only needed once (if at all - looking at you, Dylan Lee) against the Rays.
Quick takeaway:
If Atlanta can get a lead, the leverage arms can take it the rest of the way, although an extended outing for Iglesias today may lead to some interesting scenarios if the Braves have a lead late on Saturday.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Philly’s bullpen is largely fine, outside of their highest leverage arms.
Potential Limitations:
Both setup man Jose Alvarado (39 pitches over the last three days) and closer Jhoan Duran (31 across a back-to-back) are likely only if needed today, but with Philly chasing the Braves for the division, I’m guessing Don Mattingly will go to them in the 9th if needed.
Quick takeaway:
Philly likely can’t afford to sit Duran or Alvarado tonight, which could pay some interesting dividends for the rest of the series.
Final Thought
The Braves are -188 on the moneyline to Philly’s +158 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. Can Atlanta force Nola’s improved pitch mix back toward the fastball family? He dominated the Braves five days ago by stealing strikes with the curve and preventing damage against his four-seamer. Atlanta needs to reject the curve below the zone and make Nola challenge Riley, Acuña and Olson with the pitches they have historically punished. Sale has repeatedly demonstrated that he can win a low-scoring game; the bigger question is if Atlanta can turn their familiarity with Nola into a meaningfully different offensive plan.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.