The Scouting Report: Braves vs Phillies, Game One

The Braves and Phillies have a rematch of last week's Atlanta sweep, but this time it'll be in Truist Park

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: Apple TV (national exclusive)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 77° and partly sunny, wind NW at 10 mph

Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski

Quick thoughts:

• Austin Riley in the #6 hole makes this a new lineup for Atlanta, their 16th of the season. Ozzie Albies doesn’t profile as the normal cleanup hitter, but his propensity for pull-side balls in the air means that he’s outperforming his swing speed and gives Atlanta a good chance of driving in the top of the order.

Philadelphia Phillies

SS Trea Turner
DH Kyle Schwarber
1B Bryce Harper
RF Adolis Garcìa
LF Brandon Marsh
2B Bryson Stott
3B Alec Bohm
CF Justin Crawford
C Garrett Stubbs

Quick thoughts:

• Stubbs is in the lineup for JT Realmuto, who is on the injured list, but other than that, it’s the same lineup we saw last weekend in Philly.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes

Quick snapshot:

• 3.42 ERA / 3.52 xERA / 4.29 FIP

• 19.6% K / 10.3% BB / 9.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 45% four-seam, 33% slider, 14% curveball, 6% kick-change, 2% cutter & sinker

• vs RHH: 45% slider, 35% four-seam, 13% sinker, 7% curveball, 1% cutter

What to watch:

• Grant has significantly improved his fastball this season, but he’s still artificially limiting his pitch mix per handedness. Is that perhaps contributing to his struggles the second time through the order?

• Against Philly last week, Holmes didn’t make it out of the 5th inning, being pulled for Aaron Bummer with a runner on first and Kyle Schwarber up with two outs. But he otherwise held Philly at bay, allowing only two runs on four hits and a walk. Can he repeat that performance against a slumping Phillies team?

Opposing Starter: RHP Andrew Painter (1-1, 4.42)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.42 ERA / 2.93 xERA / 2.49 FIP

• 25.0 K% / 5.0 BB% / 20.0% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (37%, 96.5 mph)

• Slider (19%, 88.3 mph)

• Sinker (13%, 94.8 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 80.9 mph)

• Splitter (11%, 87.3 mph)

• Sweeper (8%, 82.5 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seamer/slider early, curveball/splitter when ahead

vs RHH: FB-heavy mix early, sinkers & sweepers when behind, four-seam/slider when ahead

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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What This Means for the Braves

• Braves hitters weren’t exactly teeing off on Painter last week, but several did see him well - Michael Harris went two for two with a homer, while Dom Smith, Mike Yastrzemski, and Ronald Acuña Jr. all picked up hits and Atlanta had six hard-hit balls off the righty.

  • They also popped out four times off of Painter, twice on the four-seamer.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Robert Suarez and Tyler Kinley both got a day off on Thursday, so there’s the eighth and ninth if needed

Used recently:

• Carlos Carrasco, normally a starter, covered one inning on just ten pitches on Thursday, so if Atlanta needs some bulk work, I’m guessing he’s the guy.

Potential limitations:

• José Suarez and Martín Pérez both remain out for today’s game based on their extended relief outings this week, while Dylan Lee has pitched on two consecutive days so I’m sure he’s only an emergency option.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the leverage arms available if they need them, but is Bummer the only lefty available tonight?

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Lefties Tim Mayza and Kyle Bachus should both be available, having had at least one day off. Reliever Alex McFarlane, called up for the first time today, will be available out of the pen for bulk innings, per reports.

Used recently:

• All of the leverage arms pitched yesterday (just to still get walked off by the Cubs). While pitch counts are pretty perilous for some of them, I’m guessing Philly won’t rule anyone out today if it means beating the losing streak.

Potential limitations:

• Off of pitch count, Tanner Banks should be down today, but again, nine-game losing streak.

Quick takeaway:

• Philly’s pushed their bullpen pretty hard this week, with today being their eighth straight game without an off day and not having had anyone go more than five and a third in the last five games. There’s an opportunity here for Atlanta to take advantage.

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What to Watch Today

• Can Painter avoid the big inning? His undoing on Sunday night was a three-run fifth inning where the top of the order strung together multiple hits to hang a crooked number on the board.

• Can the top of Philly’s order can some support from everyone else? Bryson Stott has a 42 wRC+ and Alec Bohm has a 23 wRC+, and that won’t be enough offense behind Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner.

• Can Holmes escape this trend of Braves starters giving up multiple runs in the first inning?

Final Thought

Atlanta’s favored by a run and a half (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-ish scoring game. It all comes down to which version of Philly’s offense comes to play, honestly.