The Scouting Report: Braves vs Phillies, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:20 PM ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
TV: Peacock
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 55° partly sunny, wind WNW at 13 mph
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
Quick thoughts:
No changes from the standard RHP lineup for Atlanta.
Philadelphia Phillies
SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis García (R)
LF Brandon Marsh (L)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
2B Bryson Stott (L)
C Rafael Marchán (S)
CF Justin Crawford (L)
Quick thoughts:
Catcher J.T. Realmuto left last night’s game with back tightness and is not in today’s lineup. Is he being held out because of the back, or is this a planned rest day for the veteran?
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Grant Holmes (1-1, 3.32)
Quick snapshot:
3.32 ERA / 3.16 xERA / 4.14 FIP
19.3 K% / 11.4 BB% / 8% K-BB%
Pitch mix
vs LHH: 45% four-seamer, 33% slider, 12% curveball, 7% changeup, 2% cutter & sinker
vs RHH: 49% slider, 33% four-seamer, 13% sinker, 4% curveball, 1% cutter
What’s changed in 2026:
Holmes has cut back on his cutter usage, replacing it with more sliders and four-seamers to lefties and with his new sinker to righties.
What to watch:
There is not a ton of experience versus Holmes on Philly’s roster - in 20 career ABs, there are only three total hits off of Holmes.
In Holmes’ only career start against Philly, he went four innings last April with no runs allowed on three hits, striking out six but with four walks.
Opposing Starter: RHP Andrew Painter (1-0, 3.77)
Quick snapshot:
3.77 ERA / 2.20 xERA / 1.52 FIP
26.2 K% / 4.9 BB% / 21.3% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (36%, 96.6 mph)
Slider (19%, 88.5 mph)
Sinker (14%, 95.0 mph)
Curveball (13%, 81.0 mph)
Splitter (10%, 87.5 mph)
Sweeper (9%, 82.8 mph)
How he attacks hitters:
vs LHH: well-sequenced without notable tendencies
42% four-seamer, 23% slider, 18% curveball, 13% splitter, 2% sweeper, 1% sinker
vs RHH: well-sequenced without notable tendencies
34% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 20% sweeper, 13% slider, 4% splitter, 3% curveball
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No Braves have seen Painter in his brief major league career, so there’s no preexisting at-bats to work off of. He’s also very well sequenced, so this will be down to pitch recognition and capitalizing on Painter’s mistakes in location.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
A lot of the middle relief - Joel Payamps, Aaron Bummer, Tyler Kinley - have had plenty of time off and might get into this one if the score permits.
Used recently:
Both Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez pitched last night but were efficient enough that they can come back today, if needed.
Potential limitations:
Raisel Iglesias was down yesterday due to sleeping wrong and waking up with shoulder soreness - I’ve never related more to a professional athlete.
Quick takeaway:
Even if Iglesias is still unavailable today, Atlanta has all the pieces required to secure a sweep if needed.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Lefty Kyle Bachus should be back from Wednesday’s extended outing.
Used recently:
Everyone? All of the arms in the pen other than Bachus have pitched in this series so far, so they’re all working off of a recent workload.
Potential limitations:
Lefty Tanner Banks had extended workloads in the first two games of the series, so he should be down today.
Quick takeaway:
Philly can likely send almost anyone to the mound in a win, but they’re all working on coming back from usage in this series.
What to Watch Today
If Philly gets to the late game with a lead, who closes the game with Jhoan Duran on the IL?
How well does Atlanta handle Andrew Painter without the ability to sit on any specific pitch? That being said, how does Painter fare against the top of the lineup? The first inning will tell us a lot.
Final Thought
The Phillies are favored on the moneyline today (FanDuel) in what projects to be a low-scoring game (O/U 8). Who strikes first, and who can hold the lead late? Give me Atlanta in their first sweep of the season.
Didn't change the title... Game 3