The Scouting Report: Braves vs Phillies, Game Two
The Braves are favored in today's game despite the return of Phillies ace Zack Wheeler
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 70° and cloudy, wind WSW at 6 mph
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
CF Eli White
Quick thoughts:
Michael Harris II was announced for yesterday’s lineup before dealing with a recurrence of his quad tightness and being scratched before first pitch. Wasn’t bad enough to prevent him from being the Player of the Game with some pinch-hit magic, though. He’ll be the designated hitter tonight, a sign that he’s getting better but they’re being cautious with the outfielder.
Philadelphia Phillies
SS Trea Turner
DH Kyle Schwarber
1B Bryce Harper
RF Adolis Garcìa
LF Brandon Marsh
2B Bryson Stott
3B Alec Bohm
CF Justin Crawford
C Rafael Marchán
Quick thoughts:
Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs gets the night off, being replaced by fellow backup Rafael Marchán.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.50)
Quick snapshot:
1.50 ERA / 2.68 xERA / 3.16 FIP
24.6% K / 7.6% BB / 16.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 33% slider, 27% four-seam, 16% cutter, 14% changeup, 9% sinker
vs RHH: 48% sinker, 40% slider, 8% four-seamer, 3% changeup
What to watch:
For Bryce Elder, it all comes down to the walks. We saw Grant Holmes give up two home runs last night and still come out of it with a quality start because only one of them was hit with runners on base. Can he avoid the free passes and if he can’t, can he at least stop them from coming around to score?
Trea Turner is 1-8 with a homer off of Elder, while no one else on the roster has taken him deep in the regular season. Bryce Harper, famously, went yard off of Elder in Citizens Bank Park during the ill-fated 2023 NLDS.
Opposing Starter: RHP Zack Wheeler (2026 Debut)
Quick snapshot (2025):
2.71 ERA / 3.20 xERA / 3.29 FIP
33.3 K% / 5.6 BB% / 27.7% K-BB%
The arsenal (2025):
Four-seamer (41%, 96.1 mph)
Sinker (17%, 95.4 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 83.7 mph)
Curveball (10%, 81.1 mph)
Splitter (9%, 87.1 mph)
Cutter (9%, 91.9 mph)
How he attacked hitters last year (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Four-seam dominant, curveball/splitter when ahead
vs RHH: Simplified three pitch mix. FB-heavy early, even more fastballs when behind, sweepers and four-seamers to put hitters away
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Wheeler wasn’t exactly lighting up the radar gun in his Triple-A rehab starts, averaging 92.9 on his four-seamer with just a 3.7% whiff rate. It’s possible that this is a ‘2025 Spencer Strider’ scenario and the righty isn’t the same guy when he returns, at least early, but one advantage for Wheeler is that he still has a six-pitch mix to navigate through his first start back.
There is a lot of experience against Wheeler on Atlanta’s roster. Ronald Acuña Jr. is hitting .245 with four homers and seven RBI in 49 ABs, Ozzie Albies is hitting just .173 in 52 ABs but with three homers and five RBI, while Matt Olson is hitting .188 with two solo homers in 32 ABs. Austin Riley has had a bit more success, hitting .267 with a homer and five RBI in 45 ABs, while Dom Smith has an absurd .394 average and .944 OPS with a homer and five RBI in just 33 ABs.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Leverage arms Tyler Kinley and Dylan Lee both have at least one day of rest under their belts.
Used recently:
Robert Suarez threw 17 pitches to finish things off last night, so he’s likely able to come back for his third appearance in four days if needed tonight.
Potential limitations:
Martín Pérez should still be down today, based on Wednesday’s workload, but José Suarez has had three days of rest and can probably cover an extended outing if this one’s a blowout.
Quick takeaway:
I’m curious about where the Braves go in the 9th if they’re trying to save Robert Suarez, but I imagine it’ll be dependent on which part of the lineup is coming to bat - whichever inning has the top of the order’s lefties of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper is likely the one that Dylan Lee covers.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
All of the leverage arms got the night off after pitching in Thursday’s walkoff, extra-innings loss to the Cubs.
Used recently:
Lefty Kyle Bachus threw seven pitches last night, but that shouldn’t preclude him from returning tonight if he’s needed.
Potential limitations:
Chase Shugart’s coming off a back-to-back and will likely be down tonight, while lefty Tim Mayza threw 20+ pitches last night and that’s typically a sign to give a guy a day off…but again, Philly’s dealing with a ten-game losing streak at the moment and so they’ll likely pull any lever they need to if it means securing a win.
Quick takeaway:
Philly’s actually stabilized a bit in their pen, a factor of manager Rob Thomson deciding not to go for it last night and using his medium-leverage arms instead of the top options. They have the guys needed to secure the elusive divisional win, if they get there.
What to Watch Today
Thing number one is Zack Wheeler’s velocity. He relies on that four-seam fastball a lot and if he’s throwing 93 or 94 mph with subpar shape (<16 inches IVB), it’s going to be a long day.
Can Bryce Elder keep Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper at bay? They’re the ones that did all the damage last night, with the rest of the order mostly letting them down in high-leverage moments.
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored by a run and a half (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game. This one depends on Zack Wheeler’s inability to keep Atlanta’s offense at bay. The Braves haven’t really blown out the Phillies this season, and if Wheeler can be even 90% of last year’s starter, it’ll come down to Philadelphia’s ability to score runs.
Video Version
If you’d rather watch than read this, here’s the live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.