It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Given the unknowns of left-vs-right in Philly’s bullpen game, the Braves are going with Dubón in left instead of Mike Yastrzemski and letting Ha-Seong Kim get a start at shortstop.
Philadelphia Phillies Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
RF Bryce Harper
2B Luis Arraez
1B Alec Bohm
3B Bryson Stott
LF Brandon Marsh
C J.T. Realmuto
CF Justin Crawford
Quick thoughts:
Philly’s back to their normal lineup, with Stott at third and Marsh and Crawford taking left and center, respectively.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.05 ERA, but 2-1, 1.24 w/ ATL)
Quick snapshot:
4.05 ERA / 4.12 xERA / 3.95 FIP
22.8% K / 7.9% BB / 14.9% K-BB%
With Atlanta: 24.8% K / 4.3% BB / 20.6% K-BB%
Pitch mix (w/ATL):
vs LHH: 48% four-seamer, 40% splitter, 12% cutter, 0 sliders
vs RHH: 51% four-seamer, 37% splitter, 10% cutter, 2% slider
What to watch:
Mahle has supplied exactly the stability Atlanta wanted at the deadline. In six Braves starts, he has a 1.24 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 35 strikeouts against six walks over 36⅓ innings. Five of the six have been quality starts, and he has allowed only three home runs.
The simplified arsenal remains the clearest explanation. Mahle has thrown his four-seamer and splitter approximately 86% of the time since joining Atlanta, using the cutter selectively while almost entirely phasing out his slider and sinker. The narrower plan has coincided with his walk rate dropping from 3.5 per nine innings with San Francisco to 1.5 with Atlanta.
Philadelphia gets an unusually quick second look. Mahle held the Phillies to four hits and two unearned runs over six innings Sunday, walking one and striking out three. He threw four-seamers or splitters on 82 of his 94 pitches and settled down for five scoreless innings after Atlanta’s first-inning defensive mistake helped Philadelphia score twice.
The counter-adjustment is fairly obvious: Philadelphia will try to stop chasing the splitter and make Mahle win inside the strike zone. He generated 12 whiffs Sunday but only three strikeouts, suggesting the Phillies were able to put the ball in play without doing much damage. Mahle may need to alter his early-count sequencing rather than simply repeating the same four-seam/splitter script six days later.
Right-handed hitters remain the less comfortable assignment. Righties are batting approximately .288 against Mahle this season, compared with .227 for lefties. His first-inning numbers are also concerning: a 5.25 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and .902 opponent OPS. That makes Trea Turner, and whichever righties follow Schwarber and Harper, just as important as Philadelphia’s left-handed power.
Mahle has faced Philadelphia three times this season, producing a 2.70 ERA over 16⅔ innings. All five earned runs came in one April start; he has thrown 11⅔ scoreless innings in the other two. The less encouraging portion is 12 strikeouts against eight walks, although five of those walks came before Atlanta simplified his repertoire.
The Phillies against Mahle:
The good: Kyle Schwarber (6-for-22, two homers, nine walks, 1.014 OPS), Trea Turner (9-for-22, .889 OPS), Luis Arraez (4-for-10, double, .833 OPS), J.T. Realmuto (3-for-8, .750 OPS)
The bad: Bryce Harper (4-for-15, double, .686 OPS), Alec Bohm (2-for-8, .625 OPS), Brandon Marsh (1-for-6, .310 OPS), Bryson Stott (0-for-7, four strikeouts, .125 OPS), Edmundo Sosa (0-for-3)
Opposing Starter: Bullpen game, opened by lefty Tim Mayza
Mayza: the opening assignment
Mayza makes sense as an opener. He owns a 3.23 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, with 59 strikeouts against 15 walks in 61⅓ innings. Lefties have a .586 OPS against him and righties a .668 OPS, so he’s probably being used to navigate Atlanta’s left-handed bats near the top rather than to provide real length.
Don’t construct the lineup around beating Mayza. Nearly 90% of his pitches are sinkers and sliders, but Atlanta may see him only once. Loading up on righties could become counterproductive as soon as Philadelphia turns to its right-handed middle relievers.
How Philadelphia gets 27 outs
Friday’s workload is the larger story. Philadelphia used José Alvarado, Alex McFarlane, Jonathan Bowlan, Chase Shugart and Brooks Raley after Aaron Nola departed. Collectively, those five threw 64 pitches. Bowlan, Shugart and Raley each blew a save opportunity.
Alvarado and Bowlan are the most compromised. Alvarado has thrown 48 pitches across three appearances since Tuesday, including Thursday and Friday. Bowlan threw 22 Friday after throwing 21 Wednesday. McFarlane has worked two of the last three days. Shugart and Raley threw only nine pitches apiece Friday and remain more realistically reusable.
Grant Holman is the fresh-arm wild card. He hasn’t appeared since his September recall and is the most logical candidate to absorb multiple innings, although that is an inference rather than an announced plan. He had a 3.60 ERA and 28 strikeouts against seven walks over 30 Triple-A innings, primarily using a four-seamer and splitter. Asking him to make his Phillies debut in this divisional setting would introduce considerable uncertainty.
The fresh high-leverage arms don’t solve the length problem. Jhoan Duran pitched Wednesday and Thursday but rested Friday, so he should be available for one inning. Orion Kerkering hasn’t pitched in a week due to some turf toe, although he has also fallen down Philadelphia’s leverage hierarchy. Duran can finish a lead; neither pitcher is likely to cover the middle of the game.
Atlanta’s best platoon matchups may arrive after Mayza. Righties have a .724 OPS against Bowlan, compared with .493 for lefties. Shugart has the opposite vulnerability: lefties have an .870 OPS against him, compared with .698 for righties. That makes Atlanta’s balanced lineup more valuable than a lineup designed solely to attack a left-handed opener.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Ray Kerr and Brent Suter are fresh as the length arms, while Dylan Dodd is the freshest leverage reliever.
Potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes is almost certainly down after the rare back-to-back here, and while Raisel Iglesias should be down, closers have different rules.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves sure would love to win without a save situation today, since Iglesias has worked both of the last two games and their go-to alternate closer de jour at the moment, Didier Fuentes, is coming off his own back-to-back and has never been asked to pitch on three straight days.
Final Thought
The Braves are -134 on the moneyline to Philly’s +116 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. Can Atlanta turn a planned bullpen game into an emergency bullpen game? Philadelphia can navigate the night if Mayza handles the opening inning and one fresh arm supplies length. If the Braves force an early mid-inning change or prevent anyone from covering multiple frames, the Phillies must return to a bullpen that threw 64 pitches and blew three leads Friday.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.