The Scouting Report: Braves vs Phillies, Game Three
The Braves have yet to lose a series on the season, but that could end tonight
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 77° and partly sunny, wind N at 6 mph
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Eli White
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
Mike Yastrzemski had a rough night last night and gets today off, despite it not being a lefty on the mound. We’ll see if Walt Weiss says anything about if this is a rest day or something more.
Philadelphia Phillies
SS Trea Turner
DH Kyle Schwarber
1B Bryce Harper
LF Felix Reyes
RF Adolis Garcìa
3B Alec Bohm
2B Edmundo Sosa
CF Dylan Moore
C Rafael Marchán
Quick thoughts:
Moore’s first start against Atlanta comes at the expense of prospect Justin Craawford, while Felix Reyes put the very first big-league pitch he saw into the seats…against Chris Sale.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (4-1, 2.79)
Quick snapshot:
2.79 ERA / 3.16 xERA / 4.43 FIP
25.2% K / 6.1% BB / 19.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 48% slider, 27% sinker, 25% four-seamer
vs RHH: 43% sinker, 43% slider, 13% changeup, 1% sinker
What to watch:
As always, it’s Philly’s Big Three, who have different levels of success off of Sale. Kyle Schwarber has two homers and four RBI in 17 ABs, hitting .294, while Trea Turner is batting .313 (16 ABs) and Bryce Harper just .167 (12 ABs).
Opposing Starter: RHP Aaron Nola (1-2, 5.06 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.06 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 4.05 FIP
25.2 K% / 8.7 BB% / 16.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Knuckle Curve (29%, 78.5 mph)
Four-seamer (29%, 91.7 mph)
Sinker (20%, 90.8 mph)
Changeup (12%, 85.2 mph)
Cutter (10%, 86.1 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Fastballs early, knuckle curve or sinker as the putaway pitch, changeups mixed throughout
vs RHH: Balanced three pitch mix between sinker, curveball, four-seamer. Knuckle curves are most prevalent late in the count, four-seamer is the second putaway pitch
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
It’s hard to find a Braves regular who doesn’t have pretty good numbers against Nola. By number of ABs:
Albies (67): .284 average, .781 OPS w/ 2 homers, 6 runs batted in
Riley (57): .386 avg, 1.206 OPS w/ 6 HRs, 11 RBI
Acuña (52): .308 avg, 1.025 OPS w/ 4 HRs, 9 RBI
Dom Smith (41): .268 avg, .774 OPS w/ 1 HR, 5 RBI
Olson (32): .250 avg, 1.010 OPS w/ 3 HRs, 5 RBI
Harris (27): .259 avg, .943 OPS w/ 3 HRs, 7 RBI
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Robert Suarez, Joel Payamps, and Aaron Bummer all had the night off last night, as did long man Martín Pérez.
Used recently:
While Tyler Kinley and Dylan Lee both pitched last night, I'd imagine that they’re on the table if needed to secure a series win this afternoon.
Potential limitations:
That being said, last night was Lee’s third appearance in four days and Kinley threw 24 pitches, so if you can give them the day off, that’d be nice.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta should have the pieces they need to secure a series win if it comes down to the bullpen late.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Middle relievers Tim Mayza (lefty) and Chase Shugart (righty) were the only arms that got last night off and are likely some of the first from that medium leverage group to get the ball today.
Used recently:
Philly ran all of their top guys out there to secure last night’s extra innings win...
Potential limitations:
… and those pitch counts are climbing, with virtually the entire Philly pen in the orange for pitch count. However, even Orion Kerkering (37 pitches in the last three days) is likely on the table if it’s the difference in a much-needed series win or their sixth consecutive series loss.
Quick takeaway:
I expect manager Rob Thomson to use any and all of his relievers to secure a win, especially in light of Dave Dombrowski-favorite Alex Cora being fired in Boston yesterday.
What to Watch Today
Aaron Nola’s fastballs have been some of the worst in the sport this year, with that pitch group coming in at a 3rd-percentile mark of -6 Run Value. Can Atlanta’s hitters take advantage?
Philly hitter to watch: Alec Bohm. The slumping third baseman has a surprising .313 average off of Chris Sale in 16 career ABs, although it comes with an unfortunate .666 OPS.
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored by a run and a half (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game. This pitching matchup feels pretty slanted towards the Braves, considering each starter’s recent performances and Atlanta’s history against Aaron Nola. But this is Braves/Phillies, and nothing about these matchups is ever normal.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch than read this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.
It's time to start talking about Yaz as a DFA candidate. When the bat speed and barrel rate is going south this fast in the mid-30's: it ain't coming back.