The Scouting Report: Braves vs Phillies, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 67° with ‘intermittent clouds’, wind SE at 12 mph
Today’s Lineups
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Eli White
C Jonah Heim
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
After Eli White was able to check in late to both get a hit and play defense last night, they’re confident enough in his health to give him his first start since April 7th. Michael Harris II gets the day off, with Atlanta installing Mateo at shortstop, Dubón in left field, and White in center.
Philadelphia Phillies
SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis Garcia (R)
C J.T. Realmuto (R)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
LF Felix Reyes (R)
2B Edmundo Sosa (R)
CF Brandon Marsh (L)
Quick thoughts:
With the struggles of Otto Kemp in left field (just 2-20 and nine strikeouts, with both hits being singles) being bad enough that the team sent him down to Triple-A today, Felix Reyes makes his MLB debut today, batting seventh and playing left field.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: Chris Sale (3-1, 3.27)
Quick snapshot:
3.27 ERA / 3.88 xERA / 4.75 FIP
24.7 K% / 6.7 BB% / 18% K-BB%
Pitch mix
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 42% slider, 13% changeup, <1% sinker
vs LHH: 40% slider, 32% sinker, 28% four-seamer
What’s changed in 2026:
Nothing significant. Sale’s slider usage has ticked down slightly to righties, from 46% to 42%, but it’s still a small enough sample size where this could be just a few pitches each game being different.
What to watch:
There are a few Philly hitters with more than 10 at-bats and some success against Sale - Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are both 3-13.
As always, Kyle Schwarber’s the main threat here. He’s hitting .286 with two homers and four RBI off of Sale in 14 ABs.
The flipside here is that Bryce Harper’s just 2-9, J.T. Realmuto’s only 2-13, and Edmundo Sosa is 1-11 versus the southpaw.
In Sale’s last five starts against Philly, he’s 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA. He faced Philly three times last year and got roughed up in the first meeting - five runs on nine hits in 4.2 - but rebounded by allowing just one run on five hits across two six-inning starts while striking out seventeen.
Opposing Starter: LHP Cristopher Sánchez (2-1, 2.01)
Quick snapshot:
2.01 ERA / 2.90 xERA / 1.90 FIP
32.6 K% / 7.4 BB% / 25.3% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sinker (94.7 mph, 49% usage)
Changeup (86.1 mph, 32% usage)
Slider (85.5 mph, 19% usage)
How he attacks hitters:
vs LHH: all sinkers (unless ahead early, then sliders)
64% sinker, 27% slider, 9% changeup
vs RHH: changeups when ahead, mostly even split when behind or late
45% sinker, 39% changeup, 16% slider
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Sánchez isn’t doing anything confusing or hard to handle; he’s just doing it extremely well. Everyone but Jonah Heim has seen him in their careers, and several of those Braves hitters have performed in those small samples - Austin Riley is 4-9, Matt Olson is 6-18 with two homers, Ozzie Albies is 6-12, and Drake Baldwin is 2-3.
When searching Statcast for Atlanta’s performances against lefty changeups last year, some interesting names stand out in one extreme or the other. (All performance expressed as Run Value per 100 pitches, RV/100)
Good last year: Drake Baldwin (10.240), Eli White (1.097)
Close to neutral last year: Ronald Acuña Jr. (.228), Matt Olson (-.362)
Bad last year: Ozzie Albies (-3.741), Michael Harris II (-1.928), Austin Riley (-1.748)
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
All but one arm in the bullpen have had two days off.
Used recently/Potential limitations:
José Suarez recorded Atlanta’s third three-inning save of the year last night, so he’ll be down for a few days.
Quick takeaway:
Suarez covering the end of last night’s game (and Philly’s pen not being able to do that) gives Atlanta the bullpen edge for the rest of the series.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Setup man Brad Keller hasn’t pitched since Tuesday and is well rested. He’ll need to be, as closer Jhoan Duran was placed on the injured list ahead of today’s game with a left oblique strain.
Used recently:
Their other setup man, however…Orion Kerkering entered last night’s game and took more than 20 pitches for his designated inning. Philly also needed 20 or more pitches from lefties Tim Mayza and Tanner Banks, so the only fresh lefty they have remaining is José Alvarado.
Potential limitations:
Kyle Bachus, who threw 41 pitches on Wednesday, needs to be available for Philly so they have a second rested lefty behind Alvarado.
Quick takeaway:
Philly very quickly went from almost fully rested to a perilous situation. If Sanchez can’t give them some length today, they’ll be running on fumes for Sunday night’s series finale.
What to Watch Today
Can Philly get enough runs on Chris Sale where they can go to their leverage arms to lock up a win?
If the game is vaguely close after the starters are out of it, does Philly match Atlanta’s aggressiveness and push the chips in for a win, knowing that their bullpen is already taxed a bit?
Can Atlanta’s hitters hang runs on Sanchez early? He’s allowed 11 hits in the first two innings of his four starts (as compared to 13 hits in innings 3-6), but only two runs in the early frames.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored in a low-scoring game, per FanDuel, and I understand why. Give me Sale over Sanchez and Atlanta to win this one. Heads up that Fox has tonight’s game, not BravesVision, so enjoy Ben Ingram and the Atlanta Braves Radio Network.