The Scouting Report: Braves vs Pirates, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind S at 6 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sandy León
Quick thoughts:
Mauricio Dubón, who has hit two homers in the last two days, gets another start at shortstop and swaps places with Michael Harris.
Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup
3B Nick Gonzalez
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
DH Marcell Ozuna
CF Oneil Cruz
RF Jhostynxon Garcia
1B Spencer Horwitz
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis
Quick thoughts:
Three lefties and a switch hitter versus a lefty-handed Braves starter.
Hot hitters for Pittsburgh:
In the last 15 days, several Pirates are absolutely raking right now:
Bryan Reynolds is hitting .381/.500/.619 with six XBH (including two homers)
Oneil Cruz is hitting .326/.453/.605 with four homers and 11 RBI
Spencer Horwitz is hitting .306/.390/.510 with three homers.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (3-3, 2.79)
Quick snapshot:
2.79 ERA / 4.34 xERA / 4.15 FIP
20.5% K / 8.8% BB / 11.7% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 53% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% curveball, 8% cutter, 2% four-seamer
vs RHH: 35% changeup, 26% cutter, 20% sinker, 11% curveball, 7% four-seamer
Who to watch:
There isn’t a ton of experience on this roster off of Pérez - only six hitters even have a single AB off of him - but Brandon Lowe is 3-9 with three RBI and Marcell Ozuna, while not having homered, is 4-7 with four RBI.
Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Keller (5-2, 4.35 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.35 ERA / 4.37 xERA / 3.38 FIP
18.2 K% / 7.1 BB% / 11.1% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (33%, 93.4 mph)
Sweeper (18%, 82.3 mph)
Sinker (16%, 92.2 mph)
Changeup (10%, 88.9 mph)
Slider (9%, 87.7 mph)
Curveball (7%, 78.3 mph)
Cutter (6%, 90.1 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Well-sequenced mix, anchored by the four-seamer. Changeup and sweeper ramp up when ahead, four-seamer and sinker when behind, with sweeper as the putaway pitch.
vs RHH: A three-pitch mix, anchored around two fastballs and a breaking ball. The sinker is more prevalent early in the count and before getting to two strikes, while the four-seamer is most used when behind and the sweeper takes over (at the expense of the sinker) when ahead and with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Watch out for Ronald Acuña Jr. today. In 19 career ABs off of Keller, he’s hitting .421 with a 1.371 OPS, three homers, and four RBI. Matt Olson’s 6-12 with a homer, while Austin Riley and Mauricio Dubón are both 4-10.
Counterpoint: Dominic Smith and Jorge Mateo are both 0-3, while Ha-Seong Kim is a brutal 0-11 off of Keller.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
All of Atlanta’s leverage arms should be good for this one.
Used recently:
Didier Fuentes and Dylan Dodd both threw less than 20 pitches last night and can likely come back, if needed.
Potential limitations:
Reynaldo López struggled in the 9th, requiring 36 pitches and causing Carlos Carrasco to get up and start tossing. He might not be available for this one.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have the pieces they need to lock down a win.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Most of Pittsburgh's leverage arms haven’t thrown since either Tuesday or Wednesday.
Used recently
Wilber Dotel threw 41 pitches on Tuesday, but after two days off, should be available tonight.
Potential limitations
With Yohan Ramirez throwing 40 pitches on Wednesday and demoted starter Carmen Mlodzinski throwing 55 yesterday, I’m expecting both men to be down tonight.
Quick takeaway:
Pittsburgh has its leverage pieces all available, including three lefties in closer Gregory Soto, setup man Evan Sisk, and middle reliever Mason Montgomery.
What to Watch Today
Mitch Keller is looking for elusive success against Atlanta - In his last five starts, he’s 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA.
Danger of small sample sizes, though. That ERA is heavily colored by getting blasted by 2023’s generational Braves offense for eight runs on 12 hits in five innings. He allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, a 6.2-inning masterpiece in 2024 and a walk-filled abbreviated outing (3.2 innings) in 2025.
Any dangers of a Marcell Ozuna revenge game? The Big Bear’s hitting just .190/.277/.305 this season, but has been very good against Pérez.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Martín Pérez avoiding the big inning and leaving Atlanta’s offense an opportunity to stay in it.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.