The Scouting Report: Braves vs Pirates, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 87° and intermittent clouds, wind S at 7 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Austin Wynns
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II, who left last night’s game late with tightness in his back, is being held out of this one.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

1B Spencer Horwitz
DH Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Ryan O’Hearn
2B Nick Gonzalez
CF Oneil Cruz
C Endy Rodriguez
3B Tyler Callihan
SS Jared Triolo

Quick thoughts:

• It’s a load management day for slugging 2B Brandon Lowe at designated hitter, while Nick Gonzalez Tyler Callihan checks in to play third.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (3-1, 3.77)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.77 ERA / 2.93 xERA / 4.69 FIP

• 31.5% K / 13.4% BB / 18.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 44% four-seamer, 21% curveball, 20% slider, 15% changeup

• vs RHH: 56% four-seamer, 36% slider, 7% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• There isn’t a ton of experience on this roster off of Strider - only two hitters have faced him more than three times. Henry Davis is 2-5 with a homer, while Spencer Horwitz is 2-3 and Jared Triolo is 2-5.

  • On the flip side, Bryan Reynolds is 1-7 and Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O’Hearn are all 0-3.

Opposing Starter: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (5-2, 2.77 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.77 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 3.04 FIP

• 27.3 K% / 5.7 BB% / 21.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (32%, 97.0 mph)

• Curveball (25%, 85.1 mph)

• Slider (24%, 91.9 mph)

• Sinker (15%, 96.7 mph)

• Splitter (4%, 91.6 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seam dominant mix, one that ramps up slider usage when behind (think of this more like a cutter than a slider), sinkers early and when behind, and curveballs when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: A four-pitch mix, anchored around ‘two-and-a-half’ fastballs and a breaking ball. The four-seam and sinker usage gets juiced when he’s behind in the count, with the sinker persisting into the middle of the at-bat (prior to two strikes). The curveball use ramps up when ahead and with two strikes, when that cutter-ish slider also sees an uptick in usage.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Exactly one Braves hitter has ever seen Ashcraft: Dominic Smith, who is 1-2 with a single.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Tyler Kinley’s not thrown since Wednesday, and Dylan Dodd hasn’t gotten into a game since Thursday.

Used recently:

• All four of the top leverage arms pitched yesterday, but none of them with a pitch count onerous enough to keep them out of today’s game.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes did just complete a back-to-back, though, and looked to be dragging behind on his fastball velo a bit in the second appearance. He’s almost certainly down for today’s game. Reynaldo López, who threw 36 pitches on Thursday, is likely down for today since the Braves do have another long man in Carlos Carrasco.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces they need to lock down a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Yohan Ramirez and Wilber Dotel, who each had 40+ pitch outings during the week, should be available after a few days of rest.

Used recently

• Dennis Santana threw just seven pitches last night and can come back today.

Potential limitations

• Lefty Evan Sisk threw 28 pitches last night and is likely down for today, as is middle reliever Brandon Bidois (24 pitches).

Quick takeaway:

• Pittsburgh has most of its leverage pieces all available, including two fresh lefties in closer Gregory Soto and middle reliever Mason Montgomery.

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What to Watch Today

• Braxton Ashcraft’s having an amazing season so far, probably the second-best starter on this team outside of Paul Skenes. Can the Braves be the elusive stumbling block for the breakout righty?

• How does the flyball-prone Spencer Strider do against a Pirates that excels at both getting the ball in the air and to the pull side? Watch for Brandon Lowe - he’s punished four-seamers to the tune of a .327 average & .836 slug this year and has one of the league’s best pull air percentages at 27.6%.

Final Thought

The Pirates are narrowly favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U eight runs). This one comes down to which offense can get the big hit off of a quality starter on the other side.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.