The Scouting Report: Braves vs Pirates, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 80° and intermittent clouds, wind SW at 7 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II, who left Friday night’s game late with tightness in his back, is out of the lineup for a second consecutive game. Manager Walt Weiss said on Saturday he’d be available off the bench for a pinch-hit appearance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

1B Spencer Horwitz
2B Nick Gonzalez
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Ryan O‘Hearn
DH Marcell Ozuna
3B Tyler Callihan
CF Jake Mangum
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis

Quick thoughts:

• Brandon Lowe, who left last night’s game in the ninth inning, isn’t in the lineup today but told reporters before the game that he believes he avoided any sort of significant injury.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (5-3, 2.63)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.63 ERA / 3.07 xERA / 3.34 FIP

• 20.9% K / 7.2% BB / 13.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 34% four-seamer, 28% slider, 17% cutter, 12% changeup, 9% sinker

• vs RHH: 54% sinker, 31% slider, 9% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 1% cutter

Who to watch:

• Only six Pirates have ever faced Elder in the majors, with Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis being 1-3, Bryan Reynolds being 2-8, and Jared Triolo being 1-4 with a homer

Opposing Bulk Pitcher: RHP Bubba Chandler (2-6, 5.05 ERA)

(Per MLB.com’s Jason Mackey, lefty Mason Montgomery will work as an opener today)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.05 ERA / 4.47 xERA / 5.05 FIP

• 21.2 K% / 14.7 BB% / 6.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (50%, 98.4 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 92.0 mph)

• Slider (14%, 89.6 mph)

• Sweeper (8%, 87.9 mph)

• Sinker (7%, 97.8 mph)

• Curveball (3%, 85.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seam dominant mix without significant tendencies. Changeup is the main secondary, but he will use all his ancillary pitches in any situation.

vs RHH: Fastball-dominant mix without significant tendencies, other than a reduction in sinker use in favor of the changeup with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Only four current Braves hitters have faced Ashcraft and the only one who has a hit off of him, Michael Harris II, isn’t in today’s lineup.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Sure glad tomorrow’s an off day!

Likely available:

• Reynaldo López has had two days off and should be good to go, while Carlos Carrasco still hasn’t gotten into a game since being selected to the roster on the 2nd.

Used recently:

• Everyone else. Didier Fuentes and Robert Suarez are the leverage arms that got Saturday off, and should be good to go for today.

Potential limitations:

• Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Dee both just pitched back-to-back and should be given the day off, while Dylan Dodd’s coming off a 20-pitch outing and 35 pitches in three days, so he might be down today.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta can likely figure this one out, but a long start out of Bryce Elder sure would be nice!

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Gregory Soto and Wilber Dotel both have yet to throw in this series and should be good to go this afternoon in the finale.

Used recently

• Dennis Santana, lefty Evan Sisk, and Brandon Bidois all pitched in game one and should be available today. Yohan Ramirez got 20 or so pitches on Saturday, but based on recent workloads, isn’t off the table for the finale.

Potential limitations

• Carmen Mlodzinski, who is a starter by trade and had a 55-pitch outing on Thursday, is likely down one more day before he can be used for bulk innings again.

Quick takeaway:

• Pittsburgh has all their bullpen bullets available to avoid a sweep.

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What to Watch Today

• What can Atlanta do against lefty Mason Montgomery in the first inning of this one? In his 20 pitches last night, the Braves didn’t register a single whiff on ten swings, although none of their three batted balls (one hard-hit) fell for hits. He dealt with the bottom of the order yesterday, but he’ll get the top of it this afternoon.

• Bubba Chandler’s completed more than five innings only once this year, and many of those were against lesser offenses than Atlanta’s. How quickly can the Braves get into the soft underbelly of the Pittsburgh bullpen, and will Montgomery working as an opener change the calculus for Chandler

  • The Braves also need to capitalize on Chandler’s walks - he’s terrible in that regard and they need to drive those runners in.

• Can Atlanta break their bad luck in sweep opportunities?

Final Thought

The Braves are comfortably favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Can the Braves complete the drill and lock down a sweep?

Let’s Talk About It

No livestream this morning - I had coffee on the back deck with my wife (there’s a Johnny Cash quote about this) and then took the kids to the community pool, but we’ll have a Postcast this afternoon.