The Scouting Report: Braves vs Rangers, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
RF Brewer Hicklen

Quick thoughts:

• The Stripers Bros are back together, with Brewer Hicklen checking back into the lineup with a righty on the mound and slotting in right behind his former Gwinnett teammate Jim Jarvis.

Texas Rangers Lineup

DH Joc Pederson
LF Wyatt Langford
3B Josh Jung
RF Brandon Nimmo
1B Jake Burger
SS Ezequiel Duran
CF Evan Carter
2B Nicky Lopez
C Kyle Higashioka

Quick thoughts:

• Texas is going with the exact same lineup that got them the win in game two.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (5-4, 3.61 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.61 ERA / 4.52 xERA / 5.04 FIP

• 20.2% K / 10.4% BB / 9.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 34% four-seamer & slider, 11% curveball, 10% cutter, 7% changeup, 4% sinker

• vs RHH: 41% slider, 30% four-seamer, 20% sinker, 3% changeup, curveball, & cutter

What to watch:

• It’s a broken record at this point, but Holmes has shown to be incredibly vulnerable the second time through the order. While he’s avoided blowups the last two times out once the lineup turns over, he needs to continue improving in this regard if he wants to provide the Braves sorely-needed length today.

  • 1st PA in game: .194/.288/.276, .564 OPS

  • 2nd PA in game: .305/.377/.633, 1.010 OPS

  • 3rd PA in game: .167/.274/.241, .515 OPS

Who to watch:

• Former Marlins infielder Jake Burger has only faced Holmes five times, but he’s 3-5 with two home runs and three RBI.

Opposing Starter: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (9-7, 4.04 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.04 ERA / 3.95 xERA / 4.03 FIP

• 25.9 K% / 5.6 BB% / 20.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Splitter (37%, 88.6 mph)

• Curveball (22%, 76.5 mph)

• Cutter (20%, 90.5 mph)

• Four-seamer (13%, 94.7 mph)

• Sinker (8%, 93.5 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A relatively static mix that throws more of both splitters and cutters when behind (at the expense of curveballs).

vs RHH: A more variable mix - less splitters early in the count, but increased usage of it and the curveball when ahead (at the expense of the cutter) and with two strikes (at the expense of the sinker).

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Most Braves with ten or more ABs off of Eovaldi haven’t been that successful - Mauricio Dubón’s 1-10, for instance, while Matt Olson’s 2-13 - but some of the small sample sizes are promising. Drake Baldwin’s 1-2, while Michael Harris II is 3-8.

  • The real thing to watch here for me is Ozzie Albies, who is 0-9. Can he finally figure out Eovaldi in the finale?

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Uh, this morning’s call-up, Elieser Hernández, hasn’t thrown in a week and should be fresh for multiple innings today, if needed…

Used recently:

• …which is good, because everyone else has thrown so far in this series. Victor Mederos covered 34 pitches Friday night and then everyone else got into Saturday’s game.

Potential limitations:

• Based on the way Atlanta’s treated their starters who are moonlighting as bullpen arms, both Didier Fuentes and JR Ritchie are likely down for today based on getting into yesterday’s game.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has guys who can come back on a back-to-back, but anyone that gets used today is subsequently out of tomorrow’s series opener versus San Diego.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Several Texas arms, including Saturday call-up Jose Corniell and setup man Peyton Gray, have yet to get into a game and are fresh for the finale.

Used recently:

• Closer Jacob Latz, newly activated Jackb Junis, and lefties Tyler Alexander and Robby Ahlstrom all got into last night’s game, but none with a pitch count that should preclude them from returning tonight.

Potential Limitations

• Genuinely doesn’t feel like anyone should be down for Texas in the finale. Must be nice.

Quick takeaway:

• Texas has all hands on deck for the finale.

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What to Watch Today

• The Braves need length out of Grant Holmes and frustratingly, that’s not been a thing for him in a while. He hasn’t pitched into the sixth in any start since June 3rd, although today it’s a matter of ability and not rest.

• Eovaldi’s last matchup with the Braves came in 2025, where he held them scoreless over five innings with three hits and four walks, striking out seven.

  • In his five career games versus Atlanta, Eovaldi’s 1-1 with an ERA of 3.00 but that also dates back to 2018, so how much can we really learn from this?

• Attacking Eovaldi early will be important. He’s been susceptible to first-pitch hits, with opponents putting up a .294/.331/.523 line when they swing at the first pitch of the at-bat. Anecdotally, it feels like splitter-reliant guys really do well when they get ahead of you and you’re forced to chase the pitch out of the zone, so maybe there’s a connection here?

Final Thought

Braves are an underdog in game three, with Texas being -122 on the moneyline (as compared to Atlanta at +104) and with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Can the Braves both figure out Nathan Eovaldi and get enough length out of Grant Holmes today?

Let’s Talk About It

No livestream today; Sunday mornings are usually for coffee on the back deck with the wife and dog.

“This morning, with her, having coffee.” - Johnny Cash, describing paradise in a love letter to his wife, June Carter Cash.