The Scouting Report: Braves vs Rangers, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Eli White
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s adjusting the lineup for a lefty starter, putting Eli White into right field and Joey Bart behind the plate.
Texas Rangers Lineup
DH Joc Pederson
LF Wyatt Langford
3B Josh Jung
RF Brandon Nimmo
1B Jake Burger
SS Ezequiel Duran
CF Evan Carter
2B Nicky Lopez
C Kyle Higashioka
Quick thoughts:
Braves legend Nicky Lopez gets a second start at second base, batting 8th, while that mf’er Joc Pederson enters the lineup as the leadoff hitter.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Owen Murphy (0-1, 2.25 ERA)
Quick snapshot (AAA):
3.88 ERA / 3.84 xERA / 4.24 FIP
27.0% K / 8.3% BB / 18.7% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 46% four-seamer, 23% slider, 15% curveball & changeup, 1% sinker
vs RHH: 42% four-seamer, 34% slider, 10% sinker, 8% changeup & curveball
What to watch:
Murphy’s weakness in Triple-A was giving up barrels (14th percentile mark of 10.7%), owing to his 40% hard-hit rate (38th percentile). Keeping Rangers hitters from making solid contact will be crucial today.
Who to watch:
Obviously, no Rangers have faced Murphy in the majors.
Opposing Starter: LHP MacKenzie Gore (5-8, 4.63 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.63 ERA / 3.88 xERA / 3.62 FIP
25.7 K% / 9.2 BB% / 16.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (45%, 95.4 mph)
Curveball (21%, 81.8 mph)
Changeup (11%, 86.7 mph)
Cutter (9%, 90.0 mph)
Slider (9%, 85.8 mph)
Sinker (29%, 95.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A slider-dominant mix that throws more of them early in the count than with two strikes, cutts slider usage for sinkers when behind, and ramps up the curveball when ahead and with two strikes.
vs RHH: A four-seam dominant mix with some common tendencies - more fastballs and less breaking/offspeed when behind in the count, and increased curveball and changeup usage (at the expense of the four-seamer) when ahead and with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Ozzie Albies, in 17 career ABs off of the former Nationals starter Gore, has a homer and two RBI while hitting .353. Michael Harris is hitting ‘only’ .267 in 15 ABs, but with two homers and three RBI, while Austin Riley’s 4-12 with an RBI.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Almost everyone has had close to a week off.
Used recently:
Raisel Iglesias threw 14 pitches in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, but after three days of rest, he’s good to go for tonight.
Potential limitations:
Victor Mederos likely isn’t available today (and probably not tomorrow, either), but the fact they didn’t send him back down to Gwinnett is likely a good sign.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has virtually all hands on deck to try and win the series early.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Most of the pen has had five days off.
Used recently:
Closer Jacob Latz needed only six pitches for his All-Star Game outing on Tuesday, so he’s good to go. Ben Peoples threw only six pitches last night, so no reason he can’t come back this afternoon if needed.
Potential Limitations
Texas used two of their lower-leverage righties last night in Emiliano Teodo and Gavin Collyer, so the important relievers are all fresh and can try and hold a lead if Texas gets there this afternoon.
Also, they optioned both of these guys to Triple-A Round Rock before the game to activate Jakob Junis (hip impingement) off the IL and to call up Jose Corniell, so it’s essentially an entirely fresh bullpen.
Quick takeaway:
Texas has the pieces to steal a win from Atlanta today and thanks to today’s roster moves, they can even absorb another short outing from a starter.
What to Watch Today
Do the Braves have any runs left in their bats after last night’s offensive explosion? Being serious, Atlanta appeared to be hunting specific parts of the zone. They swung at 81% of Cal Quantrill’s pitches inside the strike zone, and got nine hits coming with two strikes.
MacKenzie Gore has an ERA nearly two and a half runs worse on the road than he does at home (5.81 to 3.44). How much of that is randomness in the teams he’s faced, and how much of that is being in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s one? We’ll likely find out today.
He also has a 5.40 ERA in his four career starts in Truist Park, a figure that would be higher had he not gotten off the hook with five unearned runs in a start back in September of 2024.
How well can Murphy establish the top part of the zone with his four-seamer? Many Rangers hitters have terrible whiff rates on elevated fastballs (attack zones 11-13) this season, so let’s see if he can sneak some heaters past Danny Jansen (57.9% whiff rate), Evan Carter (45.5%), and Ezequiel Duran (43.8%).
Final Thought
Braves are a slight favorite in game two, despite the lopsided pitching matchup, with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of nine runs. Can Owen Murphy hold the Rangers offense at bay, or will they jump on the youngster?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.