It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:01 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
DH Drake Baldwin
SS Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta puts Murphy back behind the plate and bumps Harris up to the leadoff spot in front of Acuña.
Tampa Bay Rays Lineup
DH Yandy Díaz
1B Jonathan Aranda
3B Junior Caminero
C Liam Hicks
LF Chandler Simpson
CF Jonny DeLuca
RF Victor Mesa Jr.
2B Richie Palacios
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
Revenge game potential here with Mateo returning to Truist Park for the first time since he was DFA’d by the Braves.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (0-1, 7.13 ERA)
Quick snapshot (Five 2026 starts in AAA):
1.66 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 2.47 FIP
28.7% K / 10.3% BB / 18.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 46% four-seamer, 38% splitter, 11% curveball, 4% slider, 2% sinker
vs RHH: 35% splitter, 34% four-seamer, 16% sinker, 12% slider, 3% curveball
What to watch:
AJSS’s first-pitch-strike percentage is not meaningfully improving yet. My pitch-by-pitch Statcast count produces the following approximate progression:
| Start | First-pitch strikes | | ------------------------ | ------------------: | | July 29 at Mets | 45.0% | | August 19 at Twins | 52.4% | | August 26 vs. Dodgers | 43.5% | | September 1 at Nationals | 52.4% |Baseball Savant lists his overall first-strike rate at 48.8%, compared with an MLB rate around 61.5%. The alternating results are noise, not an upward trajectory: he remains roughly 13 percentage points below average.
That is the primary reason the stuff hasn’t translated. AJSS has walked 11 of 84 batters while striking out only 15—a 13.1% walk rate against a 17.9% strikeout rate. He has issued three walks in each of his last three starts. Hitters don’t have to chase the splitter when so many plate appearances begin 1-0.
The splitter remains his legitimate major-league weapon. It owns a 37.1% whiff rate and .254 xwOBA. His 96-mph four-seamer has allowed only a .207 average and .290 xwOBA, but its 9.8% whiff rate means it is functioning as a contact pitch rather than an overpowering fastball.
The limited sinker and slider usage has been dangerous. Each pitch has been thrown only 24 times, so the samples are tiny, but hitters have produced 75% hard-hit rates against both. AJSS’s viable current formula remains overwhelmingly four-seamer/splitter.
The 7.13 ERA is harsher than the contact deserves—but not entirely fraudulent. His .239 xBA, .370 xSLG and .320 xwOBA translate to an xERA around 4.3. The 88.9-mph average exit velocity and 6.9% barrel rate are respectable. The separation between ERA and xERA reflects some poor results on contact; the walks and lack of strikeouts are entirely his responsibility.
He is built up, but not earning length. His pitch totals have progressed from 69 to 75 to 90 to 86, yet he has completed five innings only once. This no longer appears to be a medical leash. The walks and prolonged counts are forcing Atlanta to intervene.
Who to watch:
The Rays against AJSS: There isn’t enough history for a meaningful good/bad list. In his lone 2025 start against Tampa Bay, he allowed two runs with seven strikeouts over five innings. Junior Caminero homered and walked, Jonathan Aranda singled and walked, and Yandy Díaz went 1-for-3 against him. No current Ray has more than three official plate appearances in the matchup.
Opposing Starter: RHP Freddy Peralta (7-11, 4.96 ERA; 2-2, 4.86 w/ TBR)
Quick snapshot:
4.96 ERA / 3.85 xERA / 4.45 FIP
21.8 K% / 8.4 BB% / 13.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer: 52%, 94.2 mph
Changeup: 23%, 87.2 mph
Curveball: 14%, 78.9 mph
Sweeper: 6%, 82.0 mph
Slider: 5%, 83.1 mph
Braves vs. Freddy Peralta:
Atlanta’s path against Peralta: Attack the four-seamer. Peralta throws it approximately 53% of the time, but hitters have slugged nearly .500 against it with roughly a .345 xwOBA and a 50% hard-hit rate. His changeup and curveball have been considerably better, carrying xwOBAs around .280 and .245. Atlanta should avoid expanding against those secondaries and make his 94-mph fastball beat them.
The 4.96 ERA substantially undersells his underlying season. Peralta owns approximately a 3.83 xERA and .303 xwOBA, compared with an actual wOBA around .340. His 5.4% barrel rate is actually the best of his career. Some regression toward better results was warranted.
The diminished strikeout rate is real, however. Peralta’s strikeout rate has fallen from 28.2% last season to 22.4%, while his fastball has lost approximately half a mile per hour. He remains capable of missing bats with the curveball and slider, but “Fastball Freddy” is no longer overpowering hitters as consistently.
His Tampa Bay debut was disastrous; everything since has been encouraging. Peralta allowed seven runs in 3⅔ innings at Colorado, then produced a 3.03 ERA over his next five starts. Last time out, he held the Mets to one run over six innings with seven strikeouts, no walks and only 74 pitches, retiring the final 13 hitters he faced.
Atlanta has seen him twice this season without truly solving him. Peralta allowed one run over five innings on June 14, then three runs—only one earned—with six strikeouts across 4⅔ innings on July 6.
The Braves against Peralta:
The good: Austin Riley (6-for-17, two HR, 1.186 OPS), Matt Olson (5-for-16, two HR, 1.150 OPS), Michael Harris II (4-for-9, .944 OPS), Drake Baldwin (2-for-5, .900 OPS), Lane Thomas (3-for-9, .956 OPS).
The bad: Ronald Acuña Jr. (1-for-9, five strikeouts), Ozzie Albies (2-for-19, .438 OPS), Sean Murphy (1-for-7, .393 OPS), Mike Yastrzemski (1-for-13, .231 OPS), Mauricio Dubón (1-for-6).
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A mostly static three-pitch mix, based around a four-seamer that gets ramped up when behind and cut back a bit in pitcher’s counts.
vs RHH: A fastball-based kitchen sink-type mix, one that throws more fastballs early and when behind, but cuts back their usage in favor of changeups and breaking balls when ahead.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
There’s a lot of three-day yellow flags on the pitch counts, but given that the bulk of that was on Saturday or Sunday, most of the pen should be available today.
Potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes is most likely down, both based on the 29 pitches he threw on Monday and the fact that the Braves have tried to keep him away from back-to-back outings.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have virtually everyone on the board today, but I’m curious who gets to be a ‘leverage bridge’ to the backend if AJ Smith-Shawver has a short start. Probably Victor Mederos?
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Maybe a second day off planned for Steven Matz after he threw 33 pitches on Sunday, but that’s about it.
Quick takeaway:
Tampa Bay has the pieces to bridge from a starter to closer Bryan Baker, although whether or not he pitches today is a question - he left Friday’s game with an illness and dehydration, and hasn’t appeared since.
Final Thought
The Braves are -116 on the moneyline to Tampa Bay’s -102 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. Can AJSS create enough 0-1 counts to make the Rays protect against the splitter? His first-pitch-strike rate has remained stuck around 49%, preventing his best pitch from becoming a consistent chase weapon. Atlanta, conversely, wants hitter’s counts against Peralta, where it can reject the curveball and changeup and force his vulnerable four-seamer into the strike zone.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.