It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta puts Murphy back behind the plate and bumps Harris up to the leadoff spot in front of Acuña. Ha-Seong Kim, Dominic Smith, Lane Thomas, Brewer Hicklen
Tampa Bay Rays Lineup
DH Yandy Díaz
1B Jonathan Aranda
3B Junior Caminero
C Liam Hicks
RF Victor Mesa Jr.
LF Chandler Simpson
CF Cedric Mullins
2B Richie Palacios
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
A change in centerfield, with Mullins entering the lineup, necessitates a small shuffle of the spots for each outfielder.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (4-3, 3.64 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.64 ERA / 4.65 xERA / 4.32 FIP
21.6% K / 9.5% BB / 12.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 28% slider, 16% curveball, 6% changeup
vs RHH: 61% four-seamer, 36% slider, 3% curveball, <1% changeup
What to watch:
He is stretched out; the fastball quality is the health check. López threw 93 pitches over five scoreless innings in his final rehab start, so Atlanta should have a normal starter’s workload available. His four-seamer averaged 92.8 mph in that outing, however, compared with 94.2 during the MLB season. The first-inning radar readings will tell us whether he merely built endurance in Gwinnett or has recovered his better velocity as well.
The slider needs to carry the swing-and-miss. López throws his four-seamer 54.8% of the time, but it has produced only a 15.9% whiff rate while allowing a .281 average and .444 slugging percentage. His slider owns a 34.6% whiff rate and a .211 average. The slow curveball doesn’t miss many bats, but its .239 xwOBA and 17.2% hard-hit rate make it a useful contact-management pitch.
The left-handed walks are the defining matchup problem. López has faced 171 lefties and walked 28 of them, a 16.4% rate. He has issued one walk to 135 right-handed hitters. Lefties are batting only .218 against him, but their .347 OBP has created a 1.58 WHIP. With Tampa Bay capable of presenting five left-handed hitters, López must avoid putting runners aboard ahead of Junior Caminero.
Immediate command matters. López has a 7.36 first-inning ERA and opponents have hit .380/.429/.580 against him in the opening frame. That makes the combination of returning from the IL, potentially reduced velocity and Yandy Díaz leading off particularly important.
He has been somewhat susceptible to pulled air contact. López allows airborne contact on 63.2% of batted balls, with a 19.1% pulled-air rate compared with the 16.8% MLB baseline. If the fastball arrives at 92–93 rather than 94–96, Tampa Bay’s power hitters have a plausible route toward Truist Park’s pull-side seats.
Who to watch:
The Rays against López:
The good: Yandy Díaz is 5-for-9 with two walks, although all five hits are singles.
The bad: Cedric Mullins is 1-for-7 with one walk and a .393 OPS.
The rest of Tampa Bay’s likely lineup has little or no meaningful experience against him.
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Jax (6-10, 3.82 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.82 ERA / 4.58 xERA / 3.96 FIP
25.5 K% / 8.1 BB% / 17.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sweeper: 25%, 87.7 mph
Changeup: 23%, 91.0 mph
Sinker: 21%, 95.4 mph
Four-seamer: 18%, 96.0 mph
Curveball: 9%, 84.9 mph
Cutter: 3%, 92.8 mph
Atlanta’s path against Griffin Jax
Hunt velocity, especially the sinker. Jax’s changeup has a 40.5% whiff rate and .307 slugging percentage allowed, while his sweeper has generated a 37.3% whiff rate. The sinker is the clearest target: hitters have batted .304 and slugged .467 against it, with only a 13.1% whiff rate. His four-seamer has also surrendered a .509 slugging percentage. Atlanta should force him into the strike zone instead of chasing the changeup beneath it or the sweeper moving away.
This is no longer the old sweeper-dominant reliever. Jax now distributes his pitches among the sweeper (25.1%), changeup (23.1%), sinker (21.4%), four-seamer (17.7%), curveball (9.2%) and cutter (3.4%). The expanded arsenal lets him navigate a lineup as a starter, but it also means nearly 40% of his pitches are the sinker and four-seamer Atlanta would prefer to see.
Make his workload a question again. Jax received an injection for non-ligament elbow discomfort in August. In his first start back, he needed 63 pitches to record eight outs, allowing seven hits, two walks and six runs—three earned. He reported no physical trouble but admitted feeling rusty and out of sync. There is no announced hard restriction tonight, but another long first inning could force Tampa Bay to protect him.
His ERA may understate the quality of contact. Jax owns a 3.82 ERA but a 4.56 xERA, with a 9.2% barrel rate and .424 expected slugging percentage. That profile supports Atlanta attacking strikes rather than treating every early-count pitch as something to take.
There isn’t a dramatic platoon answer. Lefties have a .741 OPS against Jax and righties a .688 OPS. Atlanta’s left-handed bats have been somewhat more productive, but the pitch-type matchup matters more than stacking the lineup from one side. His third inning has been the softest spot—5.94 ERA, .836 opponent OPS and five homers—but that is descriptive rather than something I’d present as a proven flaw.
The Braves against Jax:
The good: Lane Thomas (2-for-5, double), Ozzie Albies (1-for-1), Matt Olson (1-for-1), Sean Murphy (walk).
The bad: Mauricio Dubón (0-for-2), Austin Riley (0-for-1, strikeout), Mike Yastrzemski (0-for-1, strikeout).
Atlanta’s current group is 5-for-15 with no homers against him, so this is essentially first-time exposure for most of the important lineup.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A kitchen sink mix, one that ramps up changeup and curveball use when ahead (at the expense of sinkers) and throws more four-seamers and off-handed sweepers when behind.
vs RHH: A sinker/sweeper based package, with additional changeups when ahead and both four-seamers and changeups with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Atlanta should have mostly full availability of their leverage arms today, with the possible exception of Didier Fuentes.
Potential limitations:
Brent Suter’s a machine that has a rubber arm, but 45 pitches yesterday isn’t something he can come back from in one day.
Quick takeaway:
Lefty Bailey Falter was called up from Gwinnett today, having covered 10.2 innings since being acquired at the trade deadline with one unearned run allowed and 11 strikeouts to just two walks.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Cole Susler’s getting up there in pitch count over the last three days (38) pitches, while Kevin Kelley’s worked four of the last five days and could probably use a day or two.
Quick takeaway:
Tampa Bay has the pieces to bridge from a starter to closer Bryan Baker, although using him twice might result in him being down for tomorrow’s finale.
Final Thought
The Braves are -124 on the moneyline to Tampa Bay’s +106 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. This matchup will be decided by which offense creates traffic without chasing. Atlanta must reject Jax’s changeup and sweeper outside the zone and force him toward the sinker and four-seamer. López faces the inverse assignment: throw enough quality strikes to prevent Tampa Bay’s lefties from exploiting his enormous platoon walk split. If Atlanta makes Jax’s second start back another short one while López’s fastball proves playable, the matchup shifts significantly toward the Braves.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
would love to see your take on Riley. what's a mother to do?