The Scouting Report: Braves vs Rays, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 12:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Mauricio Dubón
LF Lane Thomas
3B Austin Riley
DH Brewer Hicklen
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Ozzie Albies gets game three off, while Ha-Seong Kim checks back in at shortstop. I have to admit, Hicklen at DH and Acuña out in right feels a bit odd - why not take the opportunity to give Ronald a half-day?

Tampa Bay Rays Lineup

DH Yandy Díaz
1B Ryan Vilade
3B Junior Caminero
RF Jonny DeLuca
LF Chandler Simpson
2B Nick Madrigal
SS Jorge Mateo
C Nick Fortes
CF Cedric Mullins

Quick thoughts:

• Liam Hicks and Jonathan Aranda both get the day off for Tampa.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (8-9, 3.25 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.25 ERA / 4.76 xERA / 4.31 FIP

• 18.0% K / 10.4% BB / 7.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 54% sinker, 25% changeup, 13% cutter, 5% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 33% changeup, 26% sinker and cutter, 8% curveball, 6% four-seamer

What to watch:

• The first-pitch strike is the immediate diagnostic. Pérez opened his last start in Philadelphia with consecutive walks and issued four walks in the first inning. He lasted only 3⅔ innings, allowing four runs on seven hits. His season first-pitch-strike rate is 60.7%, below the MLB average, and Tampa Bay has repeatedly demonstrated that it will convert walks into stolen bases and multi-run innings.

• The changeup remains the pitch that makes the entire plan viable. Pérez is throwing approximately 35% sinkers, 31% changeups and 22% cutters. His changeup has held hitters to a .150 average and .275 slugging percentage with a 35.7% whiff rate. The sinker owns only an 8.2% whiff rate, while the cutter has been slugged at .489. Pérez needs to establish the sinker for strikes without letting Tampa sit on it, then finish plate appearances with the changeup.

• The Phillies start interrupted a legitimately strong stretch. Pérez posted a 1.76 ERA across six August starts, allowing only one homer in 30⅔ innings. That shouldn’t be erased by one bad outing—but the 13 walks during that month, followed by four more in Philadelphia, show that command remains the pressure point.

• His platoon split doesn’t protect him from Tampa Bay’s lefties. Left-handed hitters have a .739 OPS against Pérez, compared with .655 for righties. The lefties are batting .259 and slugging .427, while righties have reached base at almost the same rate because Pérez has walked 46 of them. Tampa can create problems from either side; this is more about strike-throwing than lineup composition.

• Pérez has received even more help from results than Martínez. His 3.25 ERA sits alongside a 4.76 xERA. Opponents have produced a .302 wOBA against him, compared with a .334 xwOBA, and their actual batting average is 41 points below the expected figure. Pérez has been a valuable innings stabilizer, but the underlying contact does not provide much protection when the walks arrive.

• Early traffic has been a season-long issue. Pérez has a 4.70 first-inning ERA with 15 walks in 23 opening frames. His sixth-inning numbers are even worse, but the more relevant question today is whether he can avoid forcing Atlanta’s bullpen to begin covering innings before the middle of the game.

• The Rays against Pérez:

  • The good: Yandy Díaz (12-for-30, two homers, 1.104 OPS), Nick Madrigal (2-for-4, double), Jonny DeLuca (2-for-5).

  • The bad: Junior Caminero (0-for-3), Cedric Mullins (2-for-12, .481 OPS), Jorge Mateo (1-for-6).

  • The collective .317/.349/.500 line is concerning, although Díaz accounts for most of the meaningful damage.

Opposing Starter: RHP Nick Martinez (14-4, 3.04 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.04 ERA / 4.21 xERA / 3.95 FIP

• 14.8 K% / 3.7 BB% / 11.0% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker: 31%, 92.4 mph

• Changeup: 27%, 78.2 mph

• Cutter: 21%, 89.2 mph

• Four-seamer: 13%, 92.7 mph

• Curveball: 5%, 80.0 mph

• Slider: 4%, 85.3 mph

Atlanta’s path against Martinez:

• Attack the sinker and four-seamer; don’t let the changeup dictate the at-bat. Martínez’s 78-mph changeup is easily his best pitch: a .153 average, .267 slugging percentage, .233 xwOBA and 32.7% whiff rate. By comparison, hitters have slugged .410 against his sinker and .500 against the four-seamer. Neither fastball generates many misses. Atlanta should look for velocity in the zone while refusing to reach for the changeup beneath it.

• He has rebuilt his approach around sinker-changeup separation. Martínez uses the sinker approximately 31%, changeup 27% and cutter 21%, with the four-seamer, curveball and slider combining for the remainder. The velocity gap is substantial: 92.4 mph on the sinker and 78.2 on the changeup. That makes sitting on one speed particularly difficult, despite the absence of premium velocity.

• Atlanta probably has to hit its way aboard. Martínez has issued only 24 walks in 160 innings—a 3.7% walk rate—while striking out a modest 95. His 14.8% strikeout rate is well below average, but the lack of free passes allows him to survive a lot of contact. Waiting him out is unlikely to work unless Atlanta can force prolonged foul-ball battles.

• The 3.04 ERA deserves some skepticism, but this isn’t entirely smoke and mirrors. Martínez has limited opponents to an 87.1-mph average exit velocity and 33.4% hard-hit rate. Still, Statcast places his xERA at 4.20, with a .271 xBA and .424 xSLG compared with actual marks of .249 and .396. He has genuinely limited damaging contact, but probably not well enough to sustain an ERA near 3.00 indefinitely.

• There has been some second-half erosion, primarily through home runs. In nine post-break starts, Martínez has a 3.79 ERA with eight homers in 54⅔ innings. His control remains excellent—only five walks—but the balls that do get elevated have become more damaging. He has nevertheless settled back down over his last three starts, allowing six earned runs across 18⅓ innings.

• Don’t expect a soft first inning. Martínez has a 1.73 opening-inning ERA with a .578 opponent OPS. He has also been better against lefties (.657 OPS) than righties (.707), meaning Atlanta’s left-handed concentration does not create an obvious platoon advantage.

• The Braves against Martinez:

  • The good: Matt Olson (6-for-16, two homers, three walks, 1.224 OPS), Mauricio Dubón (3-for-5), Kyle Farmer (2-for-4), Ronald Acuña Jr. (1-for-4, two walks).

  • The bad: Mike Yastrzemski (1-for-14, eight strikeouts), Sean Murphy (0-for-7, two walks), Michael Harris II (0-for-3), Ha-Seong Kim (0-for-2).

  • Atlanta’s current roster is batting .222/.300/.346 against him across 90 plate appearances. Olson is the clear exception.

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A changeup-dominant four-pitch mix, one that ramps up changeup use when ahead and throws more sinkers and cutters when behind.

vs RHH: A sinker/changeup based three-pitch mix, with additional changeups when ahead and both four-seamers and changeups with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Atlanta should have full availability of their leverage arms today, given that they’ve not needed them in large losses the first two days.

Potential limitations:

• If Atlanta needs a long-man for the third consecutive game, I’m guessing the innings get divided between Kerr and Mederos.

Quick takeaway:

• If Atlanta can get a lead, the leverage arms can take it the rest of the way.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available/Potential Limitations:

• Steven Matz (30 pitches last night) and Cole Susler (back-to-back) are likely down for Tampa Bay.

Quick takeaway:

• The Rays have everything they need to get the sweep if they get another early lead.

Final Thought

The Braves are -116 on the moneyline to Tampa Bay’s -102 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The difference is likely to be free baserunners. Martínez has walked only 24 hitters in 160 innings; Pérez has walked 54 in 124⅔. Atlanta must capitalize on the contact Martínez permits because extended rallies will be difficult to manufacture. Pérez, meanwhile, cannot give Tampa Bay the walks it used to turn singles, speed and one well-timed extra-base hit into repeated crooked innings during the first two games.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.