The Scouting Report: Braves vs Red Sox, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
Weather: 79° and sunny, wind SSW at 6 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León
RF José Azócar
Quick thoughts:
The Braves are going with their mostly standard LHP-optimized lineup, but look for them to try and find pinch-hit opportunities for Dom Smith and Mike Yastrzemski as soon as Boston lefty Connelly Early is out of the game.
Boston Red Sox Lineup
LF Jarren Duran
DH Mickey Gasper
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
2B Marcelo Mayer
SS Andrew Monasterio
C Omar Narváez
3B Caleb Durbin
Quick thoughts:
Boston’s taken out the slumping Trevor Story from tonight’s lineup, replacing him with Andrew Monasterio. Masataka Yoshida also gets the night off, with backup catcher Mickey Gasper slotting in at designated hitter.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (1-0, 2.89)
Quick snapshot:
2.89 ERA / 3.28 xERA / 3.75 FIP
35.0% K / 17.5% BB / 17.5% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 26% curveball, 24% slider, 7% changeup
vs RHH: 62% four-seamer, 31% slider, 8% curveball
Who to watch:
Exactly four members of the Boston Red Sox have ever faced Spencer Strider. Willson Contreras is 1-2 with two RBI, while catcher Connor Wong is 2-3, and both Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran are 0-3.
Opposing Starter: LHP Connelly Early (3-2, 3.16 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.16 ERA / 4.69 xERA / 4.35 FIP
22.0 K% / 10.2 BB% / 11.9% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (33%, 93.8 mph)
Changeup (21%, 83.4 mph) - outlier movement with great drop
Sinker (19%, 92.1 mph)
Curveball (13%, 79.9 mph)
Slider (8%, 86.7 mph)
Sweeper (6%, 81.9 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Heavy sinker usage early and when behind, sweepers when ahead and with two strikes, occasional curveballs when ahead in the count
vs RHH: Well-rounded mix, changeup/curveball when ahead & with two strikes, sinker usage when behind, occasional sweepers when ahead, occasional sliders when behind
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No member of the Braves has ever faced Early.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
All of Atlanta’s high-leverage relievers got last night off and should be good to go for tonight’s series opener. After two days of rest, Didier Fuentes should be available as well, although he might get held to piggyback Grant Holmes on Sunday.
Used recently:
Aaron Bummer threw just 14 pitches yesterday, so he can come back if needed tonight.
Potential limitations:
Reynaldo López threw 32 pitches in yesterday’s outing and is likely down for at least a day, if not two.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have everything they need to hold a late lead against Boston.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Closer Aroldis Chapman is fresh for tonight’s game, if the Red Sox have a lead late.
Used recently
Lefty Tyler Samaniego and long man Ryan Watson both pitched last night, but can likely come back tonight if needed.
Potential limitations
The Red Sox have several arms coming off a back-to-back, including setup men Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock. Boston may be forced to use one tonight, unless they’re comfortable asking Greg Weissert or Jovani Morán to bridge to Chapman.
Quick takeaway:
Boston would love a long start out of Early today, making it easier to bridge to Chapman for the 9th.
What to Watch Today
Atlanta’s been really good against lefty starters this season. Can they find a way to get to Early?
How close does Spencer Strider look to what we saw against Los Angeles? If both the shape and velocity of the fastball is there, this could be another great night for him. I’m curious how much he’ll use the curveball - was his lefty curveball usage a vestige of the Colorado start, or is he now a three-pitch guy against southpaws?
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored to win tonight (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.5 runs). To me, this all comes down to which offense can get going first. The Braves would make sense here, but we saw them struggle just last night against Ben Brown’s curveball. Was Boston watching that game on the plane? Early’s curveball isn’t a good one, but if he starts ripping them off early, you’ll know why.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.