The Scouting Report: Braves vs Red Sox, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
Weather: 84° and cloudy, wind SSE at 6 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León
RF José Azócar
Quick thoughts:
The same LHP-optimized personnel as yesterday, but Mauricio Dubón moves from leadoff to batting 5th.
Boston Red Sox Lineup
LF Jarren Duran
C Mickey Gasper
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Masataka Yoshida
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
2B Marcelo Mayer
SS Andrew Monasterio
3B Caleb Durbin
Quick thoughts:
Monasterio at shortstop is going to be something that continues for the rest of the series, more than likely. Trevor Story was placed on the injured list this morning.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (4-1, 1.81 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
1.81 ERA / 2.90 xERA / 3.08 FIP
24.4% K / 9.2% BB / 15.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 32% four-seamer, 31% slider, 17% cutter, 12% changeup, 8% sinker
vs RHH: 56% sinker, 31% slider, 8% four-seamer, 5% changeup
Who to watch:
There are 30 career at-bats against Bryce Elder on the Boston Red Sox roster, but exactly four hits: three by Willson Contreras (in nine ABs) and one in two ABs by Ceddanne Rafaela
Opposing Starter: LHP Payton Tolle (1-2, 1.99 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.78 ERA / 1.99 xERA / 2.79 FIP
31.0 K% / 6.9 BB% / 24.1% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (45%, 96.2 mph)
Sinker (24%, 95.1 mph)
Cutter (15%, 89.1 mph)
Curveball (12%, 82.0 mph)
Changeup (4%, 88.9 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Heavy sinker usage early and when behind, four-seamers when ahead and with two strikes, occasional curveballs when ahead in the count
vs RHH: More-diverse mix, curveball usage ramps up slightly when ahead, sinker and cutter usage increase when behind, four-seamer is the putaway pitch.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No member of the Braves has ever faced Tolle, but it’s a similar plan of attack to Connelly Early from last night, especially to lefties. Can Braves hitters have more success when they see similar sequencing again?
Braves Bullpen Status
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Likely available:
Uh, Aaron Bummer had yesterday off, so count on seeing him today.
Used recently:
Everyone else. Atlanta’s ridden the bullpen hard this week, and while they’ve won almost every game, the piper’s due today.
Potential limitations:
Robert Suarez (42 pitches in the last three days and 21 last night) is likely down today, given his recent workload. It’s an open question whether or not Didier Fuentes can pitch on back-to-back days, but Atlanta might need him to if it goes to extras again.
Quick takeaway:
Most of the leverage arms are likely on the table today, minus Suarez. That said, everyone’s feeling it a bit and could definitely use a long start from Elder tonight. I’m sure the team’s goal is to avoid using Martín Pérez in relief tonight so that he can still start in Miami on Monday.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten both got the day off after a back-to-back, so they’re likely both up today if needed.
Used recently
Aroldis Chapman threw just ten pitches for the 9th last night and so is probably available to seal a win, despite the pitch count hitting 32 over the last three days.
Potential limitations
I imagine Jovani Moran is down after throwing 21 pitches last night, while Tyler Samaniego is coming off a back-to-back and likely down for today. That said, they’re two of the team’s three lefty relievers, so one may need to step up and pitch tonight.
Quick takeaway:
Boston has the pieces they need to seal a win, but do they have any lefties available outside of Chapman?
What to Watch Today
Tolle has a similar plan of attack to lefties as Early did last night - sinkers early and when behind, four-seamers when ahead, and he’s doing it without the advantage of Early’s sweeper. Can he keep Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris II off the board?
How does Elder do with an extra day of rest? He admittedly likes staying on schedule, but he gets one extra day for this start.
Final Thought
Atlanta’s favored to win tonight (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (O/U 7.5 runs). Whichever team can get into the opposing bullpen first likely ends up taking the game.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.