The Scouting Report: Braves vs Red Sox, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV (OTA)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 84° and mostly cloudy, wind SSE at 8 mph

  • The National Weather Service has a 40% chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for the 3:00 hour, with roughly a quarter of an inch of rain possible, so let’s see if it misses the ballpark.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Jorge Mateo
RF Mike Yastrzemski
LF José Azócar

Quick thoughts:

• The Braves are giving some guys a day off, with Mauricio Dubón sitting for the first time since the opening series of the year and Ha-Seong Kim sitting for the first time since returning from the injured list last week.

Boston Red Sox Lineup

LF Jarren Duran
DH Mickey Gasper
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
2B Marcelo Mayer
SS Andrew Monasterio
C Omar Narváez
3B Nick Sogard

Quick thoughts:

• The switch-hitting Nick Sogard checks in for his first action of the series, manning third base and batting 9th.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.35 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.35 ERA / 4.41 xERA / 5.18 FIP

• 19.2% K / 11.9% BB / 7.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 40% four-seamer, 32% slider, 14% curveball, 8% cutter, 6% changeup, 1% sinker

• vs RHH: 46% slider, 33% four-seamer, 12% sinker, 6% curveball, 2% cutter, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Jarren Duran has struggled against Grant Holmes, with just one hit in six at-bats, but that one hit was a home run. Willson Contreras is 2-5, while catcher OMar Narváez is 2-5.

Opposing Starter: RHP Brayan Bello (2-4, 6.46 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.46 ERA / 6.28 xERA / 5.58 FIP

• 15.9 K% / 9.3 BB% / 6.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (44%, 94.5 mph)

• Cutter (20%, 87.0 mph)

• Changeup (12%, 88.2 mph)

• Sweeper (10%, 85.4 mph)

• Curveball (8%, 83.4 mph)

• Four-seamer (5%, 94.1 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-sequenced mix that ramps up changeup/curveball/four-seamer when ahead, cutter usage when behind, and throws the kitchen sink with two strikes.

vs RHH: Fastball-dominant mix, with sinkers & cutters early/behind, and sweepers when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Everyone but Josè Azócar has faced Bello in their careers, and several of them have quite a bit of success: Austin Riley’s 5-9, Michael Harris is 4-6 with an RBI, and Drake Baldwin is 2-3 with an RBI. While Ozzie Albies only has one hit in seven ABs off of Bello, it’s a home run.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• I can’t imagine there’s a single reliever, outside of maybe Didier Fuentes (if he’s being held for a start on Monday in Miami), that is unavailable this afternoon.

Used recently/Potential limitations:

• Martín Pérez pitched one inning on Saturday - is he available to pitch today in relief of Grant Holmes, or is he completely down?

Quick takeaway:

• The pen got a much-needed day off on Saturday…but how much will they be needed in relief of Holmes, who seems to be limited to one time through the order recently?

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Setup men Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten have had two days off, while lefty Tyler Samaniego hah had some rest after pitching on Friday.

Used recently

• Tyler Samaniego threw 21 pitches on Friday, and the last time he did that, they gave him two days off instead of one. Was that because he wasn’t needed, or is he down today? I’m assuming he’s up in the pen.

Potential limitations

• I can’t imagine Aroldis Chapman is available this afternoon, however - he’s pitched three of the last four days and has thrown 52 pitches in that span.

Quick takeaway:

• If the Red Sox stay away from Chapman today, do they trust Whitlock and Slaten to handle a close game in the 8th and 9th?

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What to Watch Today

• I’m curious how Atlanta’s righties handle the right-on-right sweeper today. All of the team’s best performers against it - Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, and Matt Olson - are lefties, and that’s a situation where Bello doesn’t use it.

  • Austin Riley’s been awful against the pitch - 35.1% whiff rate and without a hit on it, although he has put a few into play with decent exit velocities.

• How deep can Grant Holmes go today, and how many bullpen arms have to come in behind him ahead of a four-game stretch without an off day in Miami?

Final Thought

Atlanta’s favored to win this afternoon (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be an average scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). It likely comes down to Atlanta’s offense - everyone not named Drake Baldwin has cooled off a bit, but Brayan Bello is either the perfect “get right” matchup or a canary in the coal mine on a problem with this Braves offense.