The Scouting Report: Braves vs Red Sox, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET
Location: Fenway Park, Boston MA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 81° with intermittent clouds, wind WNW at 9 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
DH Jorge Mateo
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp
Quick thoughts:
In a copied and pasted comment from Tuesday’s scouting report: I’m a bit surprised to see Jorge Mateo as the DH instead of an effort to give one of the lineup regulars a “half day” like Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley.
Boston Red Sox Lineup
LF Jarren Duran
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Masataka Yoshida
C Mickey Gasper
2B Nick Sogard
SS Marcelo Mayer
3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Quick thoughts:
Boston’s running out the exact same lineup for game two.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (4-2, 1.97)
Quick snapshot:
1.97 ERA / 2.98 xERA / 3.28 FIP
22.0% K / 7.7% BB / 14.3% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 32% four-seam fastball, 28% slider, 17% cutter, 13% changeup, 10% sinker
vs RHH: 55% sinker, 31% slider, 8% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 1% cutter
Who to watch:
It’s once again Willson Contreras. The first baseman is hitting .385 with a homer and three RBI off of Elder, including a very improbable home run the last time these two teams met.
Opposing Starter: LHP Connelly Early (4-2, 3.33 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.33 ERA / 4.67 xERA / 4.73 FIP
22.1 K% / 8.4 BB% / 13.7% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (33%, 93.8 mph)
Changeup (21%, 83.5 mph)
Sinker (20%, 92.2 mph)
Curveball (12%, 79.8 mph)
Slider (7%, 86.8 mph)
Sweeper (6%, 82.2 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Early goes to his sinker early and both when behind in the count and before he gets to two strikes, ramping up his sweeper usage when ahead and as a putaway pitch.
vs RHH: More of a well-sequenced mix with less exploitable tendencies. Ramps up changeup usage when ahead (at the expense of sinkers), ramps up sinker usage when behind (at the expense of both the changeup and curveball), and maintains fairly consistent four-seam usage in any situation
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
The last time Early squared off against the Braves, he gave up homers to Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II, while both Austin Riley and Sandy León singled. Matt Olson had a rough day left-on-left, however, striking out twice off of Early.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Both of Atlanta’s long men, Carlos Carrasco and Reynaldo López, are fresh, as are medium-leverage relievers Dylan Dodd and Tyler Kinley.
Used recently:
All four leverage arms (counting Didier Fuentes) pitched yesterday, but Fuentes (15 pitches) and Robert Suarez (nine) are almost certainly available to come back tonight.
Potential limitations:
It’s more of a question about closer Raisel Iglesias (25) and lefty Dylan Lee (22), both of whom needed more than 20 pitches for their outings. I’d imagine the Braves are willing to use them, but they may not be the first guys out of the bullpen gate.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have the pieces they needed to secure a win.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Closer Aroldis Chapman still hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, while several of the leverage arms haven’t thrown since Sunday.
Used recently
Danny Coulombe and Greg Wissert both threw Sun and last night, but based on their low pitch counts, can likely come back tonight.
Potential limitations
Tyron Guerrero, though, is probably down after throwing 36 pitches last night and having a 50-spot on his right arm for the last three days.
Quick takeaway:
Boston has the leverage pieces for tonight and might try and get Chapman an inning even if they don’t have the lead, just to get him some work.
What to Watch Today
Can the Braves find more comfort against Early? They struck out six times off the lefty in his five innings earlier this month.
Elder only had three strikeouts and a handful of whiffs the last time he started against Boston, although it’s possible he was going for early ground balls in an attempt to pitch deeper into the game. Can he miss more bats today?
Final Thought
The Braves are slightly favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U eight runs). This one probably comes down to whichever team has better results in their second look at the same starter.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
I agree, Lindsey. I want the bench active, but why can’t they be active in the field for two guys who could use a “half day off”?