The Scouting Report: Braves vs Red Sox, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston MA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 66° with intermittent clouds, wind ENE at 17 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
SS Jorge Mateo
DH Dominic Smith
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Dominic Smith gets a start against a lefty, while Jorge Mateo (who had two hits last night) gets a start in place of Ha-Seong Kim for the finale.

Boston Red Sox Lineup

LF Jarren Duran
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Andrew Monasterio
2B Nick Sogard
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
C Omar Narváez
3B Caleb Durbin

Quick thoughts:

• Boston’s giving some regulars the day off, with Marcelo Mayer and Masataka Yoshida both on the bench to start this one against a lefty in Chris Sale.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (7-3, 1.89)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.89 ERA / 3.03 xERA / 2.92 FIP

• 29.9% K / 5.8% BB / 24.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 42% slider, 30% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 40% slider, 15% changeup, <1% sinker

Who to watch:

• This is the third season since Sale was traded to Atlanta and no one on that roster has faced him in more than two games. There’s a grand total of seven hits off of Sale for Boston, with none of them being over the fence.

Opposing Starter: LHP Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.45 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.45 ERA / 2.18 xERA / 2.82 FIP

• 27.9 K% / 6.4 BB% / 21.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (45%, 96.2 mph)

• Sinker (24%, 95.0 mph)

• Cutter (16%, 89.0 mph)

• Curveball (11%, 82.3 mph)

• Changeup (4%, 88.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Simplified mix carried by early sinkers, increasing even more when he’s behind, but four-seam/curveball usage dominates when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: More of a well-sequenced mix, but still with strong tendencies: Sinkers before getting to two strikes, increased cutter usage when behind, four-seamers and curveballs ramp up when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• The last time Tolle squared off against the Braves, the only extra base hits he gave up to Atlanta were by players not even on the roster: Drake Baldwin hit a solo homer to lead off the game (as part of a two-hit day) and José Azocar doubled twice. The entire rest of the roster was hitless in Tolle’s eight innings, striking out three times and walking once.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• It was mostly a night off for Atlanta’s pen, with Dylan Dodd finishing Elder’s final inning and Carlos Carrasco putting in yeoman’s work to complete the game.

Used recently:

• Dodd threw 21 pitches and could potentially come back today, if needed, but that’s not always a scenario that comes up in a Chris Sale start.

Potential limitations:

• Carrasco’s 46 pitches mean he is down for a few days, and I’m slightly surprised he wasn’t DFA’d this morning and a replacement brought in from Gwinnett.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have all the pieces they needed to secure a series win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Aroldis Chapman still hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, while several of the leverage arms haven’t thrown since Sunday.

Used recently

• Tyron Guerrero might be able to return from Tuesday’s 36-pitch effort, although it’s possible he gets one more day.

Potential limitations

• Ryan Watson should be down after 34 pitches last night, while Garrett Whitlock is reportedly day-to-day with a mild hyperextension of his left knee. An MRI revealed no structural damage, but it’s unknown if he can pitch today.

Quick takeaway:

• Boston has the leverage pieces for tonight and might try and get Chapman an inning even if they don’t have the lead, just to get him some work.

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What to Watch Today

• Can the Braves find some offense off of Tolle, who shut them down for eight innings two weeks go?

• How does Dom Smith handle a lefty starter, a scenario they’ve actively tried to avoid by platooning him in those situations.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a very low-scoring game (O/U 6.5 runs). This one is probably going to come down to whichever ace blinks first.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.