The Scouting Report: Braves vs Red Sox, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET
Location: Fenway Park, Boston MA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 80° and mostly sunny, wind SW at 12 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
DH Eli White
CF Michael Harris II
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León
Quick thoughts:
Honestly, I’m a bit surprised to see Eli White as the DH instead of an effort to give one of the lineup regulars a “half day” like Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley.
Boston Red Sox Lineup
LF Jarren Duran
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Masataka Yoshida
C Mickey Gasper
2B Nick Sogard
SS Marcelo Mayer
3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Quick thoughts:
Some lineup changes for Boston. Mayer continues on as the shortstop for Boston, while Kiner-Falefa replaces the weak bat of Caleb Durbin at third base.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (2-0, 3.00)
Quick snapshot:
3.00 ERA / 2.66 xERA / 4.69 FIP
32.9% K / 14.6% BB / 18.3% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 43% four-seam fastball, 22% each of slider and curveball, 13% changeup
vs RHH: 57% four-seamer, 35% slider, 6% curveball, 1% changeup
Who to watch:
Talk about turnover in Boston - there is not a single member of this roster with more than four at-bats against Strider and all of its players have combined for six hits in 26 at-bats with no homers and only two RBI (both from Willson Contreras).
Opposing Starter: LHP Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.40 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.40 ERA / 3.20 xERA / 2.97 FIP
22.9 K% / 7.4 BB% / 15.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sinker (30%, 90.6 mph)
Cutter (19%, 88.2 mph)
Four-seamer (18%, 91.9 mph)
Changeup (18%, 81.4 mph)
Curveball (15%, 75.5 mph)
Slider (1%, 77.8 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Fastballs early, sinkers when behind, increased curveball/changeup/slider usage when ahead.
vs RHH: Well-sequenced mix that ramps up changeups when ahead, sinkers when behind, and both changeups and curveballs with two strikes (while cutting back on fastballs).
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are the keys for Atlanta. Each guy has 26 or more ABs off of Suarez and is hitting .300 or better (.346 for Riley, .321 for Ozzie) with four combined homers and 12 RBI. Dom Smith hasn’t homered but is 3-10 with two RBI off of Suarez.
The flip side of this is Ronald Acuña Jr. is hitting just .227 with a .638 OPS off of Suarez in 22 ABS, while Matt Olson is hitting .250 (28 ABs) and Michael Harris II is hitting .150 in 20 ABs.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Virtually everyone. Sunday’s rain-delayed affair plus the off day provided virtually an entire reset of the bullpen.
Used recently:
Carlos Carrasco threw five pitches on Sunday, while Didier Fuentes threw 12. Both should be able to come back today, if needed.
Potential limitations:
Reynaldo López threw 35 pitches on Sunday and that’s the odd “is he or isn’t he” question on availability.
Quick takeaway:
Leverage arms are all rested, so let’s get after it.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Closer Aroldis Chapman hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday.
Used recently
Six other relievers pitched on Sunday, with two of them being on the back end of a back-to-back. Most should be able to come back after Monday’s off day.
Potential limitations
The two who are in question would be Ryan Watson and Jovani Moran, although Watson’s three-day pitch count (40) is much more concerning than Moran’s (29).
Quick takeaway:
Boston has the pieces, including a well-rested closer, some setup men, and at least one additional lefty (outside of Chapman) for tonight’s opener.
What to Watch Today
How do the Braves manage against Suarez, who was practically untouchable last year when he faced Atlanta (18IP, 2ER, 5BB/18Ks)?
If this comes down to the Boston bullpen, how will Aroldis Chapman fare when he faces Atlanta’s hitters a third time? The Braves struck out twice against him in game one of the previous series, but drew two walks the next day off the flamethrower. Is there another natural jump in their comfort off of him that will result in runs on the board or a blown save?
Final Thought
The Braves are slightly favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). It feels like neither team’s been that great offensively, so it probably comes down to which group of bats breaks out of their run-scoring slump first.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.