The Scouting Report: Braves vs Reds, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 78° and partially sunny, wind NE at 6 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Chadwick Tromp
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s giving a second consecutive start at shortstop to the red-hot Jorge Mateo. Man, I enjoy knowing that the front office and coaching staff read Braves Today.
Cincinnati Reds Lineup
RF Blake Dunn
SS Elly De La Cruz
LF JJ Bleday
3B Sal Stewart
DH Eugenio Suarez
1B Nate Lowe
2B Spencer Steer
C Tyler Stephenson
CF TJ Freidl
Quick thoughts:
This is definitely the least optimal defensive infield, with Stewart at third base and Steer at second. Let’s see if it comes back to bite Cincinnati.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.78)
Quick snapshot:
3.78 ERA / 4.11 xERA / 4.84 FIP
21.5% K / 10.8% BB / 10.8% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 37% four-seamer, 34% slider, 14% curveball, 7% each of changeup and cutter, 2% sinker
vs RHH: 45% slider, 32% four-seamer, 14% sinker, 5% curveball, 2% changeup, 1% cutter
Who to watch:
While Atlanta fans always need to be mindful of Elly De La Cruz (who is 4-7 off of Holmes), it’s important to point out that Holmes was the starter in the infamous four-homer game for Eugenio Suarez in Arizona last season, with the third baseman getting three of them off of Holmes and the last off of Raisel Iglesias.
TJ Friedl has fallen out of favor recently for Cincinnati, but he’s 2-4 with two solo shots off of Holmes so they might find a way to get him into today’s game.
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Paddack (0-6, 6.86 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
6.86 ERA / 4.31 xERA / 4.44 FIP
18.1 K% / 7.3 BB% / 10.9% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (43%, 92.8 mph)
Changeup (27%, 84.8 mph)
Cutter (12%, 85.80 mph)
Curveball (10%, 76.8 mph)
Sweeper (10%, 79.3 mph)
Sinker (7%, 92.9 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Well-sequenced kitchen mix guy without exploitable tendencies, other than a slight uptick in changeup when ahead/with two strikes.
vs RHH: Well-sequenced mix, but with more defined usage patterns. Four-seamer use ramps up when ahead, at expense of sweeper, while changeup usage increases when ahead and with two strikes. Throws more cutters early in the count than late, while the curveball is virtually never thrown while behind and the slider is never used after the first two pitches of the at-bat.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Paddack faced the Braves in April while a member of the Marlins, taking the loss after allowing two earned runs and not making it out of the fifth inning. He gave up a homer to second baseman Ozzie Albies and struck out four with no walks.
The only hitter with more success off of Paddack than Ozzie’s .364 is Mike Yastrzemski, who has three homers and four RBI while batting .400 off of Paddack in his 25 ABs.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Four of the leverage arms are fresh, not having pitched since Tuesday.
Used recently:
Tyler Kinley’s the only leverage arm with recent usage, having thrown 14 pitches last night, but that won’t preclude him from coming back tonight if needed.
Potential limitations:
Dylan Dodd’s coming off a back-to-back and should be down today, but that’s the only outright unavailability expected tonight.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves are good to go for the opener.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Everyone.
Used recently
Zach Maxwell threw 29 pitches on Wednesday, but as a veteran reliever, he’s likely available if needed (although probably not first out the bullpen door on the pitching plan).
Potential limitations
Cincinnati doesn’t project to have any pitchers unavailable in their bullpen.
Quick takeaway:
The Reds are prepared for anything the Braves can throw at them late…but with no set closer, can they hold this notoriously late-inning offense at bay long enough to secure a win?
What to Watch Today
Can Paddack give Cincinnati some length, or will their bullpen get burned early?
Final Thought
The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game, as is expected in Cincinnati (O/U 9.5 runs). Let’s hope the Braves don’t get Eugenio’d again.
Let’s Talk About It
There is no Braves Today livestream for this one, as I’m currently in a pressbox watching the Auburn Regional. Should still be home for full coverage of this game, though.