The Scouting Report: Braves vs Reds, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET

• Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 75° and partly sunny, wind NNE at 6 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
DH Jorge Mateo
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• Ha-Seong Kim and Austin Riley both return to the lineup, pushing Dubón to the outfield and Jorge Mateo into a “half day” at designated hitter. Would have preferred Mateo at second and Ozzie getting the half day, but at least he’s still in the lineup.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

CF Blake Dunn
SS Elly De La Cruz
LF JJ Bleday
3B Sal Stewart
DH Eugenio Suarez
1B Nathaniel Lowe
2B Spencer Steer
RF Will Benson
C P.J. Higgins

Quick thoughts:

• It’s back to most of the regulars for Cincinnati, except for behind the plate. Tyler Stephenson gets a rest day, with P.J. Higgins getting the start.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (3-0, 3.46)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.46 ERA / 2.74 xERA / 5.33 FIP

• 31.1% K / 14.6% BB / 16.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 22% curveball, 21% slider, 15% changeup

• vs RHH: 56% four-seamer, 35% slider, 8% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Once again, we’re looking out for Eugenio Suarez here, who is 3-4 with two RBI off of Strider. Surprisingly (or not, given the timing of Strider’s elbow injury), Elly De La Cruz’s first plate appearance today will be the first time he’s ever faced Strider.

Opposing Starter: LHP Nick Lodolo (1-1, 5.57 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.57 ERA / 6.35 xERA / 6.44 FIP

• 19.6 K% / 9.8 BB% / 9.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Curveball (26%, 82.4 mph)

• Changeup (26%, 88.6 mph)

• Four-seamer (25%, 94.3 mph)

• Sinker (23%, 94.2 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A pretty standard pitching plan - four-seamers early, sinker/changeup when behind, and curveballs when ahead/two strikes.

vs RHH: Changeup dominant mix that ramps up the sinker and changeup when behind, four-seamers and curveballs when ahead, and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• It’s a pretty basis sequencing - nothing surprising or unexpected here. Feels like it should be pretty straightforward to take advantage of a struggling starter today.

  • Famous last words, I know.

• Virtually every Braves starter has seen Lodolo at least once, but without a lot of success - Michael Harris and Eli White are both 1-2, while Austin Riley is 1-3 and Ha-Seong Kim is 1-4. Nobody has taken him deep…yet.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Sure am glad tomorrow’s an off day!

Likely available:

• Reynaldo López and Dylan Dodd should both be able to go today, as (hopefully) can Didier Fuentes and recently called-up longman Anthony Molina.

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias threw just 15 pitches to seal last night’s win, so he’s likely available today if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Tyler Kinley’s pitched in three straight games, so he’s almost certainly unavailable. Robert Suarez has pitched a back-to-back, but he’s at just 21 pitches and when Kinley was in this same situation (23 pitches after a back-to-back), they used him a third day in a row so don’t count anything out. Lee’s also coming off a B2B, but on a 35-pitch workload that makes it less likely he’s used today.

Quick takeaway:

• Walt Weiss has enough pieces to handle almost every situation that might come up today, although it might require some mixing and matching.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Lefty Sam Moll hasn’t thrown in nearly a week, so expect to see him today.

Used recently

• All three of the leverage arms (per the FanGraphs depth chart) got in yesterday’s game, but didn’t pitch deep enough that they can’t come back today.

Potential limitations

• It doesn’t appear that anyone should be down, based on pitch counts, but it’s possible someone got hot and then never entered a game. Getting “dry humped”, as it’s known, wouldn’t reflect on the usage charts.

Quick takeaway:

• For having lost two leverage relievers to the injured list in the last three days, Cincinnati’s sitting pretty with their availability in this one.

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What to Watch Today

• What kind of MVP-caliber heroics will we get from Ronald Acuña Jr. in the finale?

• Several of the Braves’ regulars have struggled against curveballs this season, most notably Michael Harris II and Austin Riley. With the small sample sizes we’re talking about here, is this more struggles against one specific player’s curveball (thinking Ben Brown of the Cubs here) or with the pitch type in general? We’ll get more info on that today.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Spencer Strider, for me - if he can keep the ball in the yard, the Braves should cruise to a sweep, but if he gets got by any of this middle-of-the-order sluggers, it could be a long day for the Braves.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.