The Scouting Report: Braves vs Reds, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

Lindsay Crosby

Sep 23, 2026

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X/Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Sean Murphy
RF Brewer Hicklen
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

As expected, Ronald Acuña Jr. is out of today’s lineup after last night’s foul ball to the left shin. Per reports, he told the team he felt well enough to play and the plan is for him to re-enter the lineup for Thursday’s finale.
Folks are going to ask about the decision to have Sean Murphy DH today, and that’s fine. I’ll point out that even in his rough 2025 season, he still had an OPS over .800 against left-handed pitching, and virtually every potential matchup next week includes at least one lefty starter likely going against Atlanta in the best-of-three Wild Card matchup. I’d love to see Murphy get some good swings under his belt and gain a little confidence before the playoffs start.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

RF Juan Brito
SS Elly De La Cruz
1B Sal Stewart
CF Dane Myers
DH Eugenio Suárez
2B Matt McLain
LF Oswaldo Cabrera
C Will Banfield
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Quick thoughts:

Boy, this platoon lineup for Cincinnati is even rougher than yesterday’s. I mean, Matt McLain’s hitting .184 with a .607 OPs and batting SIXTH.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (14-9, 2.18)

Quick snapshot:

2.18 ERA / 3.05 xERA / 2.28 FIP
30.3% K / 4.9% BB / 25.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

vs LHH: 39% slider, 33% sinker, 27% four-seamer, 1% changeup
vs RHH: 46% four-seamer, 40% slider, 14% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch from Sale

This is Sale’s final postseason tuneup. Atlanta deliberately gave him 12 days between starts after arranging its playoff rotation. He last pitched September 11, allowing three runs across seven innings with six strikeouts. There’s no stated injury concern, but his command and release point after the long layoff matter more than the box score.
The extra-rest strategy has generally preserved his velocity. Sale’s four-seamer is averaging approximately 96 mph and has reached 100.1. He complements it with the slider nearly 40% of the time, plus a changeup and occasional sinker. If he’s locating 96–97 at the top of the zone immediately, the rest probably accomplished its purpose.
He remains dominant beneath the 2.18 ERA. Sale owns a 30.3% strikeout rate against a 4.9% walk rate, with a .271 xwOBA and 35.2% hard-hit rate. His 3.06 xERA suggests the actual ERA has benefited from some favorable sequencing, but the underlying performance remains comfortably elite.
Cincinnati cannot escape him through lineup construction. Lefties have a .595 OPS against Sale; righties are even worse at .566. His slider provides the dominant weapon against both sides, and right-handed hitters still must cover the four-seamer above the zone.
The current Reds have barely touched him. Collectively, Cincinnati’s hitters own a .114 average and .158 wOBA against Sale, striking out in 45.8% of their 48 plate appearances.
- The relatively good: Elly De La Cruz is 2-for-6, although both hits were singles and he has struck out three times. Tyler Stephenson is 1-for-5 with a double and three strikeouts.
- The bad: Eugenio Suárez is 0-for-15 with 11 strikeouts and one walk.
A small milestone is available: Sale needs four strikeouts to tie Frank Tanana for 26th on MLB’s all-time list. With Atlanta’s division already clinched, however, the Braves have little incentive to push him through an especially stressful late inning.

Opposing Starter: LHP Andrew Abbott (6-11, 4.70 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

4.70 ERA / 5.01 xERA / 4.90 FIP
17.8 K% / 10.7 BB% / 7.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

vs. LHH: 50% four-seamer, 42% sweeper, 6% curveball, 1% changeup & cutter
vs. RHH: 43% four-seamer, 26% changeup, 16% curveball, 11% sweeper, 4% cutter

Atlanta’s path against Abbott

Atlanta’s path against Abbott: Hunt the four-seamer and curveball; refuse to chase the sweeper. Abbott’s 92.4-mph four-seamer has produced only a 12% whiff rate while allowing a .467 slugging percentage and .402 xwOBA. His curveball has been hit for a .311 average and .541 slugging percentage. The sweeper is the pitch to avoid: .215 average, .232 xwOBA and a 32.4% strikeout rate.
The underlying decline from 2025 is substantial. Abbott’s ERA has risen from 2.87 to 4.70, but the more revealing movement is a strikeout rate falling from 21.8% to 17.8% while his walk rate climbed from 6.3% to 10.7%. His first-pitch strike rate has also dropped from 63.5% to 58.5%. He’s falling behind more often without possessing a fastball capable of rescuing the count.
The fastball has been the primary culprit. Its whiff rate has fallen from 19.9% last season to 12%, while its hard-hit rate increased from 40.7% to 49.2%. Abbott’s changeup has actually gained swing-and-miss, and the sweeper remains excellent; hitters are simply making much better decisions and contact against the pitch that establishes everything else.
His most recent start looked better than it really was. Abbott limited the Dodgers to one run over 4⅔ innings, but he walked five and needed 98 pitches. That followed outings allowing seven runs to Chicago and eight to Milwaukee. He carries a 7.59 September ERA and has issued 27 walks against 41 strikeouts since the All-Star break.
Atlanta shouldn’t automatically hide its lefties. Left-handed hitters have a .772 OPS against Abbott, slightly worse for him than the .759 allowed to righties. Lefties have slugged .468 with eight homers in only 184 plate appearances; righties’ primary advantage has been drawing 65 of his 75 walks. Matt Olson and Michael Harris II still have viable damage paths.
The first inning is the obvious time to attack. Abbott has a 6.68 ERA, .936 opponent OPS and eight home runs allowed in the opening frame. Atlanta should make him prove he can locate, but it cannot become passive when a get-me-over fastball or curveball enters the zone.
His home-run problem isn’t specifically a pulled-air problem. Abbott’s 16% pulled-air rate is actually slightly below the MLB average, even though he allows more airborne contact overall. The danger comes from poorly located fastballs and curveballs being hit hard—not an unusual tendency to feed the short side of the field.
The Braves against Abbott:
- The good: Sean Murphy is 1-for-2 with three walks, giving him a .800 on-base percentage in five plate appearances.
- The bad: Austin Riley is 0-for-5 with two strikeouts; Michael Harris II is 1-for-5 with two strikeouts.
- The broader warning: Abbott has a 1.74 ERA in two previous starts against Atlanta, although the current roster’s .273 expected wOBA against him is less impressive than the results suggest.

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: It’s predominantly a two-pitch attack to lefties, with the four-seamer being the main pitch early and when behind, and the sweeper taking over when ahead. Curveballs are occasionally used as an early-count strike-stealer, and the left-on-left changeup gets occasionally sprinkled in when he’s ahead, for funsies.

vs RHH: It’s a more robust mix to righties, anchored by the fastball. Curveballs are mostly an ahead-and-pre-two-strikes weapon, while the sweeper still shows up in pitcher’s counts.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/potential limitations:

Didier Fuentes won’t be used on back-to-back days, so he’s likely the only one down for today.

Quick takeaway:

Just to be clear, these pitch counts aren’t going to dictate usage this week. Walt Weiss said that the pitching plans will be a bit more preset this week, but I’d expect to see Robert Suarez.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

Former Atlanta reliever Pierce Johnson is sitting out there, waiting for his revenge game.

Potential Limitations:

Brock Burke normally would be down or questionable after 25 pitches, but he’s also the only lefty in this bullpen.

Quick takeaway:

So far, it appears like Cincinnati’s using their bullpen like normal.

Final Thought

The Braves are -255 on the moneyline to Cincy’s +210 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The hinge point is the opening inning, which could define the entire game. Sale must establish his release point after 12 days without game action, while Abbott enters with one of baseball’s ugliest first-inning lines. If Atlanta makes Abbott throw strikes and then attacks the fastball or curveball before he reaches sweeper counts, it can seize control early. If the Braves chase the sweeper and allow him to settle in, his past success against them becomes much more relevant.