The Scouting Report: Braves vs Reds, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

• TV: Fox (National broadcast)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 72° and partially sunny, wind NE at 8 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s giving a third consecutive start at shortstop to the red-hot Jorge Mateo, while giving the ‘in-the-thick-of-it’ Austin Riley a day off.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

CF Dane Myers
SS Elly De La Cruz
DH Sal Stewart
3B Eugenio Suarez
1B Spencer Steer
LF JJ Bleday
RF Blake Dunn
C Tyler Stephenson
2B Matt McLain

Quick thoughts:

• The red-hot Nathaniel Lowe sits with a lefty on the mound for Atlanta, while Matt McLain checks back in at second base as Cincinnati hopes he finds his pre-surgery form.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (2-3, 2.70)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.70 ERA / 4.01 xERA / 3.83 FIP

• 21.6% K / 8.1% BB / 13.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 52% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% curveball, 8% cutter, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 35% changeup, 26% cutter, 19% sinker, 11% curveball, 9% four-seamer

Who to watch:

• There is a definitive lack of experience against Pérez on Cincinnati’s youth-laden roster, but Eugenio Suarez is 6-11 with a homer and five RBI off of the southpaw.

Opposing Starter: RHP Brady Singer (2-4, 6.26 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.26 ERA / 6.07 xERA / 6.52 FIP

• 15.7 K% / 5.6 BB% / 10.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (46%, 91.1 mph)

• Slider (33%, 82.4 mph)

• Sweeper (12%, 81.1 mph)

• Cutter (6%, 86.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (3%, 90.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Sinker/slider guy that leans on the sinker more when behind in the count and with two strikes (which is an odd combination). Cutter is more of an early-count pitch.

vs RHH: Sinker/slider dominant mix that will cut back on sinkers for sweepers when ahead and slightly increase cutters when behind, but otherwise sticks to base sequencing in all situations.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Singer’s faced virtually the entire Atlanta lineup, minus the catchers, with mixed results. While he’s held Ozzie Albies to two hits and a .473 OPS in ten ABs and Mike Yastrzemski to one hit in eight ABs, Matt Olson and Dom Smith have combined for a three homers and each have an OPS over 1.000 off the veteran.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias hasn’t pitched since Tuesday and will be the go-to for the 9th in a save situation today.

Used recently:

• Both Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez got work in last night’s win, but having thrown 15 (or less) pitches, they can likely both come back if needed today.

Potential limitations:

• Coming back likely isn’t in the cards for both Didier Fuentes (28 pitches yesterday) and Tyler Kinley (back-to-back), with both guys down except for case of emergency.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces needed to secure an early series win this evening.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Most of Cincinnati’s pen is rested and available.

Used recently

• Caleb Ferguson came in to rescue Yunior Marte in yesterday’s fateful 6th inning, but he can probably come back despite a three-day workload of 34 pitches. Marte himself threw 21 and can probably return, as well.

Potential limitations

• Zach Maxwell threw just 19 pitches yesterday, but with a three-day workload of 48 pitches, I’d like to imagine he’s down except for an emergency.

Quick takeaway:

• The Reds have the pieces to lock down a win…if Tito Francona deploys them correctly.

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What to Watch Today

• Do the Braves try and find an opportunity to get Austin Riley into today’s lineup, or is this truly an off day for the struggling slugger?

• Can Martín Pérez, who is roughly average at inducing groundballs, keep Cincinnati’s bats from launching a bad location out of the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park?

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game, as is expected in Cincinnati (O/U 9.5 runs).

Let’s Talk About It

There is no Braves Today livestream for this one, as I’m currently in a pressbox for Auburn’s game two in the Auburn Regional, trying to beat NC State to stay alive in the loser’s bracket. They opened the first inning with eight runs, though, so the vibes are much better than yesterday. I’ll be home for full coverage of this game, though, which includes a Postcast and Today’s Three Things.