The Scouting Report: Braves vs Rockies, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 8:45 PM ET
Location: Coors Field, Detroit CO
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 58° and mostly sunny, wind NNE at 7 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
LF Eli White
C Jonah Heim
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
Michael Harris II, who was expected to serve as the designated hitter on this road trip so they can manage his sore quad, is OUT of the lineup for the opener. At what point do they just place him on the injured list and give him the two weeks needed to heal up and return to normal play?
Colorado Rockies Lineup
2B Edouard Julien
LF Mickey Moniak
C Hunter Goodman
1B TJ Rumfield
RF Tyler Freeman
DH Troy Johnston
3B Willi Castro
SS Ezequiel Tovar
CF Jake McCarthy
Quick thoughts:
Not exactly a stellar defensive lineup, but definitely a top of the order that can both work walks (Julien) and mash (Moniak and Goodman).
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (2-1, 3.62)
Quick snapshot:
3.62 ERA / 4.08 xERA / 4.90 FIP
18.5% K / 10.4% BB / 8.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 41% four-seamer, 32% slider, 14% curveball, 6% cutter & kick-change, 1% sinker
vs RHH: 46% slider, 34% four-seamer, 12% sinker, 6% curveballl, 1% cutter
What to watch:
There are a grand total of 19 at-bats against Holmes on the Rockies roster, and the only hit comes from centerfielder Brenton Doyle. That one hit, though, is a home run.
Opposing Starter: LHP Jose Quintana (1-2, 4.91 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.91 ERA / 5.35 xERA / 6.79 FIP
11.0 K% / 13.4 BB% / -2.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (30%, 90.0 mph)
Sinker (21%, 90.0 mph)
Changeup (20%, 85.5 mph)
Curveball (16%, 79.4 mph)
Slurve (13%, 80.1 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Evenly sequenced early, slurves when ahead and with two strikes, sinker/4S when behind
vs RHH: Fastballs early, changeups and slurves when ahead and as putaway pitches
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Several Braves have a lot of experience against Quintana in their careers, but not many of them have had success. Matt Olson (27 ABs) is hitting .222 w/ one homer, Austin Riley (14 ABs) is hitting .214, Michael Harris II (16 ABs) is hitting .188, and Ronald Acuña Jr. (19 ABs) is sitting at .158 but with a solo homer.
The lone successful hitter for Atlanta here is Ozzie Albies, who has 19 ABs against Quintana and is hitting .474 with three homers and a 1.553 OPS.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Robert Suarez warmed up on Tuesday and Wednesday, but after an off day last night, he should be good to go for tonight’s opener.
Used recently:
Aaron Bummer pitched last night, but with only twelve pitches thrown, can likely come back tonight.
Potential limitations:
Tyler Kinley threw 27 pitches last night and likely won’t be available after that workload tonight, especially when you look at his three-day pitch total of 50.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have two leverage relievers in both Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez tonight, as well as whatever Reynaldo López and Didier Fuentes are at the moment. It feels like they’ll be okay, even without Tyler Kinley tonight.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Several of Colorado’s depth relievers have had a few days off and can cover multiple innings if needed.
Used recently:
Braves legend Jimmy Herget and lefty Brennan Bernardino threw 20+ pitches on Wednesday, but should be available tonight for the series opener.
Potential limitations:
Braves prospect legend Victor Vodnik, who has struggled in the closer role this season, is likely down for today after throwing 25 pitches last night.
Quick takeaway:
There’s a leverage arm here in breakout reliever Bernandino and Antonio Senzatela can likely come back tonight, but overall a lack of quality options for Colorado in the opener.
What to Watch Today
Quintana’s the definition of a soft-tossing lefty, but many of the Braves regulars haven’t hit him well in their careers. Is this new, lower velocity version the one they’ll finally find some success against?
How does Atlanta’s makeshift outfield (Eli White and Mauricio Dubón) handle the cavernous dimensions of Coors Field? There’s potential for plenty of extra base hits here, which could be damaging if Grant Holmes continues running poor walk rates.
Final Thought
Atlanta’s a run-and-a-half favorite (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game. For me, it all comes down to which team can more reliably get runners on base when the big hit happens.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.