The Scouting Report: Braves vs Rockies, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWX on X.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
3B Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Kim gets a second consecutive start, and Acuña re-enters the lineup, batting cleanup, while Austin Riley gets the day off.

Colorado Rockies Lineup

LF Jake McCarthy
CF Cole Carrigg
C Hunter Goodman
1B TJ Rumfield
3B Willi Castro
DH Mickey Moniak
2B Connor Norby
RF Zac Veen
SS Ezequiel Tovar

Quick thoughts:

• Pretty much the usual lineup for Colorado, with a bottom three that all struggle with contact.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (8-5, 3.64)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.64 ERA / 4.82 xERA / 4.85 FIP

• 18.9% K / 10.2% BB / 8.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 35% slider, 28% four-seamer, 12% cutter, 11% curveball, 9% changeup, 6% sinker

• vs RHH: 40% slider, 30% four-seamer, 21% sinker, 3% each of cutter, curveball, changeup

What to watch:

• The August results are excellent, but this has been contact management rather than overpowering dominance. Holmes has a 2.49 ERA and .578 opponent OPS across four August starts, but only 13 strikeouts against nine walks in 21⅔ innings. The .195 opponent average is doing much of the work. His improvement is real in the results; the strikeout-to-walk foundation remains less convincing.

  • His no-hit bid followed that same formula. Holmes held the White Sox to one hit over six-plus scoreless innings last week, but recorded only three strikeouts while issuing three walks. Chicago simply could not convert its contact into hits. Against Colorado, Holmes doesn’t need to become a strikeout pitcher, but he does need to avoid issuing free passes before a ball finds the gap.

• The slider must remain the foundation. Holmes throws it 36.9% of the time, and it has produced a 39.1% whiff rate, .214 average and .300 xwOBA. The curveball has been even better in smaller usage, with a .237 xwOBA and 36% whiff rate. Those are the pitches most capable of preventing Colorado from sitting on his fastballs.

• The changeup has become a fascinating weapon. Holmes has increased its usage after barely throwing it in 2025. Hitters are 1-for-26 against it, with a .234 xwOBA. It is used almost exclusively against lefties and gives him a second weapon moving away from them rather than relying entirely on the slider’s glove-side movement.

• His fastballs remain the danger. The four-seamer has allowed a .385 xwOBA and 49.5% hard-hit rate. The sinker is at .413 with a 56.8% hard-hit rate, while the cutter has been his worst pitch at .427. Holmes’s six-pitch repertoire looks deep, but the quality is sharply divided: slider, curveball and changeup good; four-seamer, sinker and cutter vulnerable.

• The platoon split is much smaller than the ERA makes it appear. Holmes has a 2.76 ERA against lefties and 5.04 against righties, but the OPS gap is only .704 to .733. Lefties have drawn 37 walks in 315 plate appearances, so that side’s threat is traffic; righties have produced more hits and slightly more overall damage.

• The fourth inning/second time through has been the season’s danger point. Holmes has a 5.29 ERA in that frame, issuing 16 walks and allowing seven homers in 22⅓ innings. That aligns with his broader second-time-through trouble: the strikeout rate drops, the walks rise and hitters begin lifting his fastballs. With Atlanta’s bullpen completely rested after Chris Sale’s complete game, Walt Weiss has no reason to force Holmes through a prolonged middle-inning jam.

Who to watch:

• Lots of experience on Colorado’s roster off of Holmes, but a lot of it is mixed.

  • Grant’s won: Jordan Beck (0-3), Willi Castro (0-4), Ezequiel Tovar (0-5), Connor Norby (1-6), Hunter Goodman (1-6)

  • Grant’s gotten got: Troy Johnston (2-3), Mickey Moniak (2-3, HR), Ryan Ritter (1-2)

Opposing Starter: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (12-7, 4.96 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.96 ERA / 6.99 xERA / 5.43 FIP

• 13.8 K% / 5.4 BB% / 8.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Splitter (21%, 86.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (20%, 92.4 mph)

• Sinker (20%, 92.4 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 88.9 mph)

• Sweeper (10%, 83.6 mph)

• Slider (10%, 85.3 mph)

• Curveball (7%, 79.9 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Sugano

• Attack the fastball family instead of expanding against the splitter. Sugano throws seven pitches, but the four-seamer, sinker and cutter have all been liabilities:

  • Four-seamer: .305 AVG, .629 SLG, .418 xwOBA

  • Sinker: .351 AVG, .557 SLG, .462 xwOBA

  • Cutter: .310 AVG, .741 SLG, .487 xwOBA

  Those three pitches account for approximately 51% of his arsenal. Atlanta should remain aggressive when Sugano brings his 92-mph fastballs into the zone.

• The splitter is the one pitch Atlanta should avoid helping. It is Sugano’s most-used offering at 21.5% and his only consistent bat-misser, producing a 31.3% whiff rate. Hitters have a .187 average against it, although the .323 xwOBA suggests it hasn’t been completely unhittable. The objective is to reject it below the zone and force him back toward the fastballs.

• Load the lineup with left-handed power. Lefties have produced a .274/.325/.590 line and .915 OPS against Sugano, with 19 home runs in 287 plate appearances. Righties have a .761 OPS and seven homers. Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Mike Yastrzemski and Ozzie Albies hitting left-handed offer Atlanta’s clearest paths to damage.

• Leaving Coors does not solve Sugano’s home-run problem. He has surrendered 15 homers in 58⅔ road innings, compared with 11 in 63 innings at home. His road ERA is 4.91—nearly identical to his 5.00 mark at Coors. This isn’t a ballpark problem; it’s a Sugano problem.

• Atlanta should be ready immediately. Sugano has a 7.43 first-inning ERA, with opponents batting .357 and hitting nine home runs in 23 opening frames. His first-time-through OPS is approximately .950. This is not a matchup where Acuña and the top of the order should take hittable fastballs merely to build pitch count.

• He has been particularly vulnerable lately. Sugano owns a 7.58 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 1.006 opponent OPS in August. He allowed five runs in two innings against Cleveland last time out, including a 44-pitch first inning, and has surrendered a homer in 10 consecutive starts.

• The quality-of-contact numbers are even worse than the 4.96 ERA. Sugano has allowed a .395 xwOBA, 90.9-mph average exit velocity and 13% barrel rate. He doesn’t miss many bats - 71 strikeouts in 121⅔ innings - so Atlanta should expect plenty of opportunities to put hittable pitches in play.

• Don’t be lulled by a clean second trip. Sugano’s second-time-through OPS is only .646, substantially better than his first and third trips. That split is unusual and probably reflects small-sample sequencing more than a real midgame transformation. His strikeout rate falls each time through, ultimately reaching only 3.3 per nine on the third trip.

• The Braves against Sugano: Virtually no experience here

  • The good: N/A

  • The bad: Dominic Smith (0-2), Lane Thomas (0-1)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Relatively static usage here with some expected adjustments (more splitters when ahead, more fastballs when behind) but also some odd ones (LESS sweepers and curveballs when ahead/two strikes).

vs RHH: The primary fastball here is the sinker, not the four-seamer, and it’s a true kitchen-sink package than just splitter-heavy. Sweeper use ramps up, although (oddly) not with two strikes, where it’s 4S/splitter focused.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• All hail Chris Sale, as the pen got a complete day off yesterday.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes could probably use another day, given that he threw 36 pitches on Wednesday.

• Raisel Iglesias warmed up for the 9th last night, so do they treat that as a short outing?

Quick takeaway:

• A much-needed reset from Sale gives Atlanta a lot of options for today’s opener.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Closer Jordan Romano and setup man Brennan Bernardino are fresh, as is flamethrower Jaden Hill.

Potential Limitations:

• A couple of guys are getting up there in 3-day pitch counts, including Jimmy Herget (26), longman Zach Agnos (26), and middle reliever Juan Mejia (21). None of them are explicitly out today, but it does force the Rockies to decide if throwing them today is worth not having them the rest of the weekend.

Quick takeaway:

• Not a bad place to be for Colorado, honestly.

Final Thought

In a surprise to not one, the Braves are favored on the moneyline at -220 to Colorado’s +200, and FanDuel has set the over/under at nine runs. The likely hinge point is Can each pitcher keep his vulnerable fastballs protected by his best secondary pitch? Sugano needs Atlanta to chase the splitter so he can survive with 92-mph fastballs that have been hit extremely hard. Holmes needs his slider, and increasingly his changeup, working to prevent Colorado from sitting on his four-seamer, sinker and cutter.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.