The Scouting Report: Braves vs Tigers, Game One

The Braves have yet to lose a series on the season, but that could end tonight

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 72° and cloudy, wind S at 7 mph

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II is back in the lineup and back in the field, playing centerfield for the first time since last week after he dealt with some quad tightness at the end of the Nationals series.

Detroit Tigers

DH Jahmai Jones
2B Gleyber Torres
SS Kevin McGonigle
RF Matt Vierling
C Dillon Dingler
LF Riley Greene
1B Spencer Torkelson
3B Hao-Yu Lee
CF Javier Báez

Quick thoughts:

• Detroit’s trying to maximize its production from the top of the order by moving the rookie McGonigle down to third and inserting platoon bat Jahmai Jones as the leadoff hitter.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (1-1, 2.70)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.79 ERA / 4.59 xERA / 4.63 FIP

• 15.4% K / 6.6% BB / 8.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 60% sinker, 22% changeup, 10% curveball, 9% cutter

• vs RHH: 32% changeup, 28% cutter, 21% sinker, 12% curvebakk, 8% four-seamer

What to watch:

• There are three Detroit hitters with twenty or more ABs against Pérez; Javy Baez is 5-20 with three RBI, while Spencer Torkelson is hitting .238 with two RBI in 21 ABs. The real one to watch is Gleyber Torres who is hitting .273 with three homers and five RBI in 22 career ABs.

Opposing Starter: RHP Casey Mize (2-1, 2.51 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.51 ERA / 3.22 xERA / 2.95 FIP

• 27.4 K% / 8.5 BB% / 18.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (33%, 93.3 mph)

• Splitter (29%, 87.0 mph)

• Slider (23%, 87.2 mph)

• Sinker (11%, 93.1 mph)

• Slurve (4%, 81.7 mph)

How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Mostly a well-balanced three-pitch mix, 4S/SL when behind and splitter as the putaway pitch

vs RHH: Fastball-heavy mix, slurve early in the count (and never when behind), splitter and four-seamer with two strikes

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Braves hitter has a ton of experience against Mize, with the most ABs from anyone being Olson’s six. Olson has three hits off of Mize and Atlanta’s only home run.

  • Olson was one of the team’s two best hitters against splitters last season, along with Austin Riley at +3 Run Value.

    • On a rate basis, Riley lapped everyone at 6.7 RV/100. Olson was 2nd at 2.3 RV/100 and no other Braves hitter from last season was positive.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Atlanta’s bullpen is in pretty good shape, between Monday’s off day and the multi-inning potential of both Carlos Carrasco and Tuesday’s call-up of Didier Fuentes.

Used recently:

• Aaron Bummer threw 25 pitches on Sunday but should be good to go, which is nice, given that Dylan Lee’s on paternity leave.

Potential limitations:

• Based on pitch counts, I’m sure Atlanta would love to stay away from both Bummer and José Suarez, but as the only lefties in the pen, that’s not really an option.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta’s in pretty good shape, all told, but the fact that they don’t have Dylan Lee magnifies the dire state of Braves lefty relief right now.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Kenley Jansen is available and well rested, having pitched once in the last five days.

Used recently:

• Setup men Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest both pitched on Sunday, but should be available without restriction for the series opener.

Potential limitations:

• Long man Drew Anderson might be available tonight - 42 pitches is exactly the pitch count where some teams want to give three days of rest but others are fine going with two.

Quick takeaway:

• Detroit’s set up well for the series thanks to yesterday’s off-day and their well-distributed workload in the last week.

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What to Watch Today

• Detroit has been awful on the road this year at 5-12 - is that a factor of the teams they faced, or is there something different about either the pitching staff or the offense when they’re not in Comerica Park?

• Tigers hitter to watch: Kevin McGonigle. They paid him a massive contract for a reason, and it’s not because he’s a poor defender on the left side of the diamond. He’s done well against Martín Pérez-esque fastballs and against lefties, so the kid could have a good day.

Final Thought

Atlanta’s favored by a run and a half (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a lowish-scoring game. This pitching matchup feels pretty slanted towards the Tigers, given Mize’s hot start to the season and Pérez’s underwhelming inputs. Let’s hope Atlanta’s offense can figure out the splitter and make some noise.