The Scouting Report: Braves vs Tigers, Game Three
The Atlanta Braves can secure an unexpected series sweep if they can get past lefty Framber Valdez and his groundball-heavy attack
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 12:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 67° and partially cloudy, wind NW at 9 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Kyle Farmer
SS Jorge Mateo
CF Eli White
Quick thoughts:
This will be Kyle Farmer’s first start for the Braves, in the lineup against the lefty Valdez, while Michael Harris II gets the day off. Was it because of the grimace we saw him make when chasing down a ball in the gap late in last night’s game, or is this just some load management ahead of a Rockies series where there’s a lot of ground to cover?
This is the 21st unique lineup for Atlanta in the 32nd game of the season.
Detroit Tigers Lineup
SS Kevin McGonigle
2B Gleyber Torres
DH Colt Keith
LF Riley Greene
1B Spencer Torkelson
RF Kerry Carpenter
CF Matt Vierling
3B Hao-Yu Lee
C Jake Rogers
Quick thoughts:
That’s a rough bottom third of the lineup for Detroit, with a combined two home runs and only one batting average of .200 or better (Lee’s .238).
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.95)
Quick snapshot:
1.95 ERA / 2.86 xERA / 3.12 FIP
21.2% K / 6.8% BB / 14.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 32% slider, 29% four-seamer, 17% cutter, 13% changeup, 8% sinker
vs RHH: 51% sinker, 36% slider, 8% four-seamer, 5% changeup
What to watch:
There are a grand total of 20 ABs and three total hits off of Elder on Detroit’s roster, two hits (in six ABs) from Gleyber Torres and a homer (in three ABs) by Spencer Torkelson.
Opposing Starter: LHP Framber Valdez (2-1, 3.41 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.41 ERA / 3.94 xERA / 3.79 FIP
16.2 K% / 9.5 BB% / 6.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sinker (49%, 93.8 mph)
Curveball (30%, 78.6 mph)
Changeup (19%, 89.1 mph)
Slider (1%, 86.5 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Sinkers early, curveballs and sliders to put hitters away
vs RHH: Sinkers early, sinkers & changeups when behind, curveball as the primary putaway pitch with two strikes
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Similar to Tarik Skubal yesterday, Valdez is pounding the zone with first pitch strikes, and this time it’s likely to be a sinker. Atlanta’s hitters need to not be in auto-take mode to open the at-bat (talking to you, Austin Riley)
Two players have taken Valdez deep in their careers - Ozzie Albies has three hits and one homer in six ABs against Valdez, while Matt Olson has two homers and five RBIs among his five hits in 16 ABS.
Eli White is a stunning 0-14 against Valdez in his career, while Jonah Heim is just 4-25 with six strikeouts off of the southpaw.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Robert Suarez warmed up on Tuesday but didn’t get into the game but then got last night off, so he should be good to go for the finale.
Used recently:
Tyler Kinley and Didier Fuentes should both be good for today, assuming that the starter Fuentes is physically ready to pitch again after a day off. You never know with a young player who’s always been a starter.
Potential limitations:
Dylan Lee and Reynaldo López are both likely down today, by virtue of their multi-inning appearances yesterday, although López’s pitch count was low enough that they may ask him to come back if he’s needed.
Quick takeaway:
Plenty of fresh arms in the pen, including the closer, a setup man in Kinley, and multiple middle relievers. Atlanta’s in a good place for this one.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Several of the lower leverage arms, like Drew Anderson, Brenan Hanifee, and Will Vest should all be available for the finale.
Used recently:
Burch Smith and Brant Hurter have both gotten one day of rest after throwing 30+ pitches on Tuesday, so they’re in that nebulous zone of ‘does he get one more day or is he back?’ that changes from manager to manager.
Potential limitations:
Things couldn’t have gone better for Atlanta last night than burning Detroit’s primary setup man/backup closer in Kyle Finnegan with a 29-pitch 8th inning before walking off closer Kenley Jansen in the 9th. I imagine Finnegan’s down today, owing to that pitch count.
Quick takeaway:
Because he got walked off so early in the inning, Detroit likely still has Jansen to close out a win today, but Detroit’s leverage arms are a bit perilous today in the finale.
What to Watch Today
Framber Valdez doesn’t miss a lot of bats, trading whiffs for ground ball contact. Can Atlanta get some baseballs through the defense to build a quality offensive inning?
Bryce Elder’s been one of baseball’s best starters this season on the strength of his new cutter to lefties and more consistency versus righties. Can he figure out a speedy and pesky Tigers lineup that excels at putting the ball in play and then punishing you with power for it? Any homer he gives up needs to be a solo shot instead of a two or three-run blast.
Final Thought
Atlanta’s a favorite on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately low-scoring game. The Braves will have plenty of balls in play today off of the sinkerballer Valdez; the question is if they can elevate enough of them to get them through the infield. While I never like to pick sweeps, I like Atlanta’s chances here.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.