The Scouting Report: Braves vs Tigers, Game Two
Atlanta prepares to head into battle against a back-to-back Cy Young winner
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 72° and cloudy, wind S at 7 mph
Atlanta Braves
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
LF Eli White
C Jonah Heim
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta goes with their LHP-optimized lineup, using Drake Baldwin at designated hitter and inserting Jonah Heim behind the plate.
Detroit Tigers
SS Kevin McGonigle
2B Gleyber Torres
3B Colt Keith
LF Riley Greene
C Dillon Dingler
LF Kerry Carpenter
1B Spencer Torkelson
CF Wencell Pérez
DH Jace Jung
Quick thoughts:
With centerfielder Javy Báez out with an injury suffered last night, Wencell Pérez checks into centerfield and is batting 8th.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-0, 2.57)
Quick snapshot:
2.57 ERA / 5.05 xERA / 5.70 FIP
26.9% K / 7.7% BB / 19.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 31% four-seamer, 24% curveball & changeup, 11% slider, 9% cutter
vs RHH: 47% curveball, 27% sinker, 13% slider, 7% four-seamer & changeup
What to watch:
There are, obviously, no Tigers that have faced Ritchie in the majors.
Opposing Starter: LHP Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.72 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.72 ERA / 3.02 xERA / 1.97 FIP
26.8 K% / 4.2 BB% / 22.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (40%, 96.6 mph)
Changeup (26%, 86.7 mph)
Sinker (18%, 96.4 mph)
Slider (13%, 89.5 mph)
Curve (3%, 79.8 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Fastballs early, 4S & changeup when ahead and with two strikes
vs RHH: Full five-pitch mix, with 4S & changeups as the primary putaway pitches
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No Braves hitter has a ton of experience against Skubal, but the two hitters that have a homer off of Skubal are entirely predictable: Mauricio Dubón (1-7, 2 RBI) and Jonah Heim (2-16, 5 RBI)
Matt Olson’s 2-7 with an RBI off of Skubal, while Ozzie Albies is 2-2 with an RBI, and Jorge Mateo’s 3-5.
Braves Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Now that José Suarez is back from his multi-inning outing on Saturday, Atlanta went ahead and DFA’d Carlos Carrasco to create a roster spot for Dylan Lee’s return.
Used recently:
Tyler Kinley threw 23 pitches last night, but he’s an experienced reliever and should be able to return tonight if needed.
Potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes threw only 22 pitches last night, but as a starter by trade, he’s likely down today unless it’s an emergency. Aaron Bummer’s pitch count is a bit perilous, so with Lee back, they might let him have the night off if needed.
Quick takeaway:
Robert Suarez started to warm up but didn’t pitch last night - it’s likely the team will still use him today, but will that impact his availability for Thursday?
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Closer Kenley Jansen is available and well rested, having not pitched at all in the last five days.
Used recently:
Detroit went to multiple arms for bulk innings last night, given the early injury to Casey Mize. Tyler Holton can likely come back tonight, as he only threw 20 pitches.
Potential limitations:
Brant Hurter’s likely down for the series after last night’s 30 pitches, since he’s thrown 43 in the last three days. Burch Smith, with 33 pitches, likely gets today off but might be able to pitch in Thursday’s finale.
Quick takeaway:
Detroit has the leverage arms available to close a Tarik Skubal start for a win, if it gets to that.
What to Watch Today
If there’s any sort of weakness to Tarik Skubal, it’s that he can be prone to giving up quality contact (49th percentile hard-hit rate of 39.2%). Can Atlanta capitalize on the rare mistakes with a few long balls?
Can JR Ritchie keep the ball on the ground and prevent some of these mid-lineup sluggers from cashing in on the runners that end up reaching?
Final Thought
Atlanta’s a run and a half underdog (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a very low-scoring game. This pitching matchup feels pretty slanted towards the Tigers, given the fact that it’s a back-to-back Cy Young winner squaring off against a prospect making his second career MLB start. But the Braves have had success off of Skubal before, with his only other start in Truist Park being five runs (four earned) in four innings back in 2024.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch than read this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.