The Scouting Report: Braves vs White Sox, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Austin Wynns

Quick thoughts:

• Michael Harris II makes his return to the lineup after sitting out two games for back tightness he experienced last Friday

Chicago White Sox Lineup

LF Sam Antonacci
3B Miguel Vargas
DH Andrew Benintendi
1B Jacob Gonzalez
2B Chase Meidroth
RF Braden Montgomery
CF Tristan Peters
SS Luisangel Acuña
C Drew Romo

Quick thoughts:

• Braden Montgomery is making his MLB debut today, batting 6th and in right field. Shortstop Colson Montgomery is getting another day off for a tight back but is expected to be back in the lineup as soon as Wednesday.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (4-2, 3.86)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.86 ERA / 4.49 xERA / 5.11 FIP

• 21.2% K / 10.0% BB / 11.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 36% slider, 35% four-seamer, 10% curveball, 9% cutter, 8% changeup

• vs RHH: 47% slider, 31% four-seamer, 15% sinker, 3% cutter, 2% each curveball & changeup

Who to watch:

• There are a grand total of three at-bats off of Holmes on Chicago’s roster, with Luisangel Acuña being 0-2 and Randal Grichuk (who isn’t in this lineup) being 0-1.

• For recent performers, both Sam Antonacci and Chase Meidroth are hitting over .300 across the last two weeks, combining for 17 runs and 13 RBI.

Opposing Bulk Pitcher: RHP Erick Fedde (1-5, 4.94 ERA)

(After the livestream, Chicago announced they were going with opener Brandon Eisert, a lefty)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.94 ERA / 4.51 xERA / 6.11 FIP

• 14.2 K% / 9.4 BB% / 4.7% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sweeper (38%, 81.6 mph)

• Sinker (28%, 93.7 mph)

• Cutter (20%, 90.0 mph)

• Changeup (13%, 88.7 mph)

• Four-seamer (2%, 94.1 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-rounded four-pitch mix that ramps up changeup usage when ahead, sinker usage when behind, and sweepers with two strikes.

vs RHH: Sweeper-dominant three-pitch mix that cuts sinker usage when behind in favor of cutters and cuts cutters when ahead and with two strikes in favor of sweepers.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• I am very excited for Ronald Acuña Jr. to see former teammate Erick Fedde tonight - Ronald’s hitting .316 with a 1.277 OPS and three homers/six RBI in just 19 ABs off of Fedde.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• With the off day on Monday, it’s likely that the entire bullpen is available to pitch tonight.

Used recently/Potential limitations:

• The only questions I would have are on Tyler Kinley and Reynaldo López. Kinley got Monday off, but is still at a 42-pitch count for the last three days. Does he get an additional day? The same question is there for López, who threw 27 pitches on Sunday and might benefit from one more day to rest the arm and surgically repaired shoulder.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be good with all the pieces they need to seal a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Seranthony Domínguez hasn’t pitched since before the weekend. Lefty Sean Newcomb should be back after his 29 pitches on Saturday, as well.

Used recently

• Three different relievers threw more than 20 pitches on Sunday, and that’s after they all threw on Friday night as well. Not sure how Chicago will handle the trio tonight.

Potential limitations

• Based on pitch counts and usage, it doesn’t appear that anyone needs to be down today for the White Sox.

Quick takeaway:

• Chicago has the guys they need to hold a lead if they have one late.

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What to Watch Today

• Both Fedde and Holmes have struggled this season with the second time through the order, so good thing that both bullpens are rested - one of these teams might be going to it early.

• Fedde’s first inning has been a problem at times this season - he’s allowing a .294/.294/.824 line with no walks, but six homers and eight runs scored, so know that he’s likely not going to be throwing you balls and plan accordingly.

Final Thought

The Braves are comfortably favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game (O/U 9.5 runs). Can Atlanta get past this surprisingly competent White Sox offense and start the series with a win?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.