The Scouting Report: Braves vs White Sox, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWeather on Twitter/X

  

Thursday update: The weather’s been dreadful in Chicago, but the game has yet to be postponed. If it were, the best makeup day would be August 20th, a shared off-day for both teams. The Braves will be between series in Milwaukee and Minnesota, so traveling back for one isn’t the hardest thing to coordinate.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
DH Jorge Mateo
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy Leon

Quick thoughts:

• Against a lefty in Anthony Kay, the Braves go with Jorge Mateo as the designated hitter and possibly their best defensive outfield in Dubón-Harris-White.

Chicago White Sox Lineup

2B Chase Meidroth
DH Randal Grichuk
1B Miguel Vargas
3B Colson Montgomery
CF Everson Pereira
RF Braden Montgomery
C Edgar Quero
SS Luisangel Acuña
LF Sam Antonacci

Quick thoughts:

• Shortstop Colson Montgomery (back) checks into the lineup for the first time since Sunday, but is playing third base and batting cleanup.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (4-3, 3.02)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.02 ERA / 4.06 xERA / 3.99 FIP

• 20.9% K / 8.9% BB / 12.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 52% sinker, 28% changeup, 10% cutter, 9% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 35% changeup, 27% cutter, 20% sinker, 10% curveball, 9% four-seamer

Who to watch:

• Only three White Sox have faced their former teammate in an actual game, with Andrew Benintendi batting .286 with an RBI across 14 ABs and Randal Grichuk hitting .292 with two RBIs across 24 ABs. Miguel Vargas is 0-2.

Opposing Starter: LHP Anthony Kay (5-1, 4.40 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.40 ERA / 5.87 xERA / 5.49 FIP

• 16.5 K% / 9.3 BB% / 7.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (26%, 95.8 mph)

• Sweeper (20%, 82.5 mph)

• Sinker (19%, 94.9 mph)

• Cutter (18%, 91.0 mph)

• Changeup (14%, 85.9 mph)

• Slider (3%, 85.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Sinker/sweeper oriented mix that focuses on sinkers early and when behind, sweepers when ahead and with two strikes, and ramps up cutter usage when behind and four-seam usage with two strikes.

vs RHH: Very well-rounded six-pitch mix that focuses on four-seamer/changeup when ahead and with two strikes, cutting sweeper/sinker/cutter usage to do it, but focuses on throwing all three fastballs when behind in lieu of changeups.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Very small sample size for Atlanta off of Kay - only five Braves have ever faced him, with only Austin Wynns (1-5), Jorge Mateo (1-2, RBI) and Dominic Smith (1-1, homer) having hits off of the lefty.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez were both off yesterday and can pitch tonight if Atlanta gets a lead they need to hold.

Used recently:

• Dylan Lee pitched last night, but needed only three sliders to retire the one batter he faced and can come back tonight.

Potential limitations

• Dylan Dodd’s 31-pitch outing on Tuesday means he might be down today? Not sure how Weiss wants to handle that sort of workload, but with the rest of the pen available, this might be a ‘break glass in case of fifteen innings’ situation.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves should be fine for just about any game situation the White Sox throw at them.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Longman Trevor Richards is plenty fresh, having not pitched since Sunday.

Used recently

• Everyone else has appeared in this series, although Tyler Davis and Grant Taylor, both righties, should be fine to come back today without concern. So should lefty Brandon Eisert, Tuesday’s opener.

Potential limitations

• Leverage arm Seranthony Domínguez has pitched back-to-back, although at only 27 pitches, could potentially come back and appear in Game 3 if the White Sox have a chance to sweep.

Quick takeaway:

• Chicago has the guys they need to hold a late lead.

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What to Watch Today

• Can Atlanta find runs against a kitchen sink lefty?

• If the wind’s blowing out, which is always possible in a place literally named “The Windy City” but double so with today’s weather, can Martín Pérez keep his mistakes in the ballpark?

  • Also, does an especially wet field make it tough for Pérez’s groundballs to be converted into outs? He already doesn’t give up hard contact, and these balls are even more prone to die and/or get slowed down in the infield grass.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored today (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderately-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Can Atlanta find the offense to punish a struggling starter in Kay, and does the weather hold out enough for them to do it?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.