It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 2:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: NBC/Peacock
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: Courtesy of BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
As Walt Weiss detailed yesterday, Murphy is in to catch Mahle (and to provide another right-handed bat against Sánchez, who has owned lefties to the tune of a .391 OPS this season.
The reason that Albies and Riley moved up, while Harris moved down, can easily be explained by their respective performances against Sánchez:
UP = Ozzie Albies: 9-18 (3 doubles), 1BB/1K; Austin Riley: 7-15 (1 homer), 5 RBI
DOWN = Michael Harris: 2-15, 10Ks
Bench breakdown:
Atlanta’s bench today will have:
1B/DH bats, both lefties: Dominic Smith, Rowdy Tellez
4th outfielder: Mike Yastrzemski, Brewer Hicklen
I’d expect Yastrzemski to get into the game for left field once/if Kim gets pinch-hit for, which will pull Dubón from the grass to the dirt.
Pinch-runners: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Luke Williams, who also serves as the backup utility man.
Atlanta’s taxi squad includes pitchers JR Ritchie and AJ Smith-Shawver, as well as infielder Kyle Farmer and catcher Maverick Handley.
Philadelphia Phillies Lineup
SS Trea Turner
DH Kyle Schwarber
RF Bryce Harper
2B Bryson Stott
1B Alec Bohm
LF Brandon Marsh
3B Edmundo Sosa
CF Justin Crawford
C J.T. Realmuto
Quick thoughts:
Sosa’s out there despite running with a slight limp due to right groin tightness yesterday, although manager Don Mattingly denied that it had anything to do with a pinch-hit decision late in the game. Something to watch for.
Bench breakdown:
Two catchers: Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs
Philly’s three catchers this season put up a collective .539 OPS, the worst mark in baseball.
Utilityman Otto Kemp (on the roster for injured Luis Arraez).
Backup outfielders Derek Hill (CF/LF defensive option) and Bryan De La Cruz (corner outfielder)
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.99)
Quick snapshot
3.99 ERA / 3.95 xERA, with a 22.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate across his full 2026 season.
His Atlanta version is built around a four-seamer and a much more frequent splitter. After the trade, splitter usage rose from about 25% with San Francisco to nearly 39% with the Braves, while cutter usage fell below 10%.
What to watch from Mahle:
The splitter is the first diagnostic pitch to watch for. Mahle allowed just one earned run in 13 innings across two September starts against Philadelphia. Atlanta’s increased reliance on the splitter is central to his turnaround, and he didn’t have it when he allowed five runs in five innings against Cincinnati in his final regular-season start. Watch whether he gets it below the zone and can throw it when the Phillies refuse to chase.
He’s been a better pitcher for Atlanta. Mahle arrived after posting a 5.13 ERA with the Giants, then had a 1.28 ERA over his first eight Braves starts before the Cincinnati outing. The full-season 3.95 xERA is a useful restraint on expectations; the splitter-heavy approach is a real tactical change, but eight starts and one poor tuneup do not settle how he will pitch today.
The handedness split is counterintuitive. Across his two teams this year, lefties hit .221/.272/.373 against Mahle, while righties hit .288/.361/.442. That makes the splitter especially valuable against Philadelphia’s headline left-handed threats, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, but it also argues against treating the right-handed portion of the order as an automatic breather.
The four-seamer has to set up the drop. Philadelphia has already seen Mahle twice this month. If it identifies the splitter early and lets the low ones pass, Mahle must establish a credible strike with the fastball. His four-seamer is roughly a 93-mph pitch; this is a location-and-sequence matchup, not a contest of overwhelming velocity.
Opposing Starter: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (18-7, 2.91 ERA)
18–7, 2.91 ERA / 3.39 xERA in 207 innings, with 231 strikeouts and 45 walks. That works out to a 27.0% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate.
A genuine three-pitch mix: 44.4% sinker at 95.1 mph, 37.1% changeup at 87.1, and 18.5% slider at 86.3.
Atlanta’s path against Sánchez:
The changeup is the pitch that can end an at-bat without a ball in play. Hitters batted .180 and slugged .257 against it, with a 46.0% whiff rate. His slider generated a 43.1% whiff rate of its own. Atlanta’s hitters need to distinguish a strike they can drive from a pitch that only starts at a hittable height.
The sinker offers the clearest contact opportunity, but contact alone is a trap. Opponents hit .331 and slugged .483 against the sinker, compared with .180/.257 against the changeup. Yet Sánchez induced grounders on 58.0% of batted balls, far above the 44.1% MLB average. Atlanta’s aim is a sinker it can get under, not one it can merely put in play.
The right-handed bats carry the matchup. Righties produced a .752 OPS with 18 homers against Sánchez this season. Lefties managed a .391 OPS and one homer; he struck out 67 of the 192 left-handed hitters he faced. Riley’s Game 1 swing is an obvious story, but his plate appearances against the sinker-changeup combination matter more than the momentum of that swing. Matt Olson and Michael Harris II face the tougher statistical assignment, which for Harris, explains why he’s moved down in the order today.
September creates an opening, with an important qualification. Sánchez had a 5.12 ERA in five September starts, including three runs in six innings against Atlanta on September 4. He then finished with seven innings, two runs and ten strikeouts against Tampa Bay on September 25. The Braves have proof of concept that they can score against him; his last outing is evidence that the rough month did not erase his stuff.
Do not build a plan around free passes. Sánchez threw a first-pitch strike to 65.7% of hitters and walked only 45 in 207 innings. He also generated a 36.3% chase rate. Atlanta should be selective about which strike to attack, particularly when the changeup begins near the bottom of the zone.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: The sinker gets thrown a lot in the zone early to set up the slider, while the changeup is a frequently-thrown left-on-left weapon once he’s ahead in the count and with two strikes.
vs RHH: The changeup is the star of the show here, being used over 50% of the time when ahead and with two strikes. The slider is an ever-present threat, though, maintaining a roughly 1-in-7 frequency throughout the at-bat.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Are you ready for retirement? Ford Stokes and Zac Blackerby are Braves fans who want to help you make sure you have income for life. Email Zac (zac@activewealth.com) or Ford (ford@activewealth.com) for your free Social Security roadmap today.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
None of Atlanta’s relievers hit a pitch count yesterday where they’re down for today, but you do have to ask if the team will ask Didier Fuentes to throw on back-to-back days for only the sixth time all year (and only the second time since July)
Fuentes going back-to-back was a more common thing early in the season, when they were trying to acclimate him to life as a reliever. He did it once in April, once in May, once in June, and once in July (although he also pitched in both games of a doubleheader against the Mets on July 29th).
Quick takeaway:
No specific availability concerns for Game 2.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Jhoan Duran and Alex McFarlane are getting up there in pitch count, but you’re crazy if you think Philly will risk going home with Duran on the bench in favor of some other reliever.
Quick takeaway:
This feels like the game that might see Philly go to Andrew Painter out of the bullpen if Sánchez needs to leave early.
Umpire information
Behind the plate: Adam Beck. UmpScorecards lists 29 plate games for Beck this season, with 93.54% called-pitch accuracy against 93.87% expected accuracy—a difference of 0.33 percentage points below expectation. Its table also records 66 overturned calls on 129 challenges; those are selectively challenged pitches, so that rate should not be read as his overall error rate.
The practical watch: Both starters depend on pitches that finish near or below the lower edge. Early called strikes there could change how aggressively hitters protect against Mahle’s splitter and Sánchez’s changeup. Beck’s season accuracy does not establish a reliable low-zone preference, so we’ll need to wait and see over the first few innings.
Beck has done two Atlanta games this season, including one in Truist Park. He has been behind the plate for three Philadelphia games.
Final Thought
The Braves are +100 on the moneyline to Philly’s -118 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The hinge point is Can Atlanta lift Sánchez’s sinker before Philadelphia makes Mahle bring his splitter up?
The two starters ask hitters to make opposite mistakes. Sánchez invites contact with a 95-mph sinker, then turns the low changeup into swings and misses or grounders. Mahle wants the four-seamer to make his splitter believable, especially against a Phillies lineup that has already seen his revised approach twice this month.
For Atlanta, the winning adjustment is selective aggression against sinkers it can elevate. For Mahle, it is fastball strikes that preserve the splitter below the zone. If the Braves get Sánchez out early, they can test a Philadelphia bullpen that already had to navigate a long, painful eighth inning yesterday.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.