The Scouting Report: NLDS GM2, Braves at Dodgers

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s game one.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 8:00 PM ET

• Location: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles CA

• TV: Fox/Fox One

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: LA is currently in an extreme heat warning, with temperatures at first pitch expected to be 90°. Obviously, the 31% humidity won’t be as bad as in Atlanta, but this is weather that the Braves are accustomed to and the Dodgers are not. Said Walt Weiss before Saturday’s game, “You’ve got to remember - we’re from Atlanta.”

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
DH Sean Murphy
3B Austin Riley
LF Lane Thomas

Quick thoughts:

• Lane Thomas (oblique) returns to the lineup after pinch-hitting in game one, while they flop Baldwin and Murphy. Some of this might be Baldwin being behind the plate for Kerr’s game on Thursday, but a bigger part might be the ability to use a pinch hitter for Murphy and not lose the DH spot by flexing Baldwin out of it to go man the plate.

Bench breakdown:

• Atlanta’s bench today will have:

  • Lefty 1B/DH bat: Rowdy Tellez

  • Platoon outfielder: Mike Yastrzemski

  • 4th outfielder: Brewer Hicklen

  • Backup shortstop: Ha-Seong Kim

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup

SS Mookie Betts
DH Shohei Ohtani
C Will Smith
1B Freddie Freeman
LF Teoscar Hernández
RF Kyle Tucker
CF Andy Pages
3B Miguel Rojas
2B Tommy Edman

Quick thoughts:

• With a second lefty opener, I was curious how aggressively manager Dave Roberts would adjust his lineup to match. The answer is that unlike yesterday, he did make a change this time - Miguel Rojas is in at third base for Max Muncy, batting 8th.

Bench breakdown:

• Backup catcher: Hunter Feduccia.

• Backup infielder/pinch-runner: Hyeseong Kim

• Backup outfielder: Josue De Paula

• Utilityman/October hero: Kiké Hernandez

• Platooned corner infielder Max Muncy

Pitching Matchup

Braves Opener: LHP Ray Kerr (4-1, 2.54)

Quick snapshot

• Quick snapshot

  • 1.47 ERA / 3.30 xERA across 18 regular-season innings; 16.7% strikeout rate / 3.0% walk rate

  • 37.7% curveball, 35.8% four-seamer, 22.6% sinker, with a handful of cutters. The two fastballs average about 95 mph; the curve averages 81.

What to watch

• Kerr has already handled a bigger October assignment than a one-inning opener. He allowed one hit over 3⅓ scoreless innings against Philadelphia on Thursday, getting through the top of its order twice. That followed a three-scoreless-inning audition as an opener in his final regular-season appearance. Whether Atlanta asks for another extended outing after only two days off is the immediate workload question.

• The curveball is essential, but it has not been untouchable. It generated a 33.3% whiff rate in the regular season; opponents also slugged .450 against it in 22 plate appearances ending on the pitch. His four-seamer held hitters to a .130 average and produced a 27.0% whiff rate. Watch whether he establishes that fastball well enough to make the curve a chase pitch, especially against the top of the Dodgers’ order. (These pitch results come from an 18-inning season sample)

• The handedness split offers little reason to pull him automatically when righties arrive. Left-handed hitters had a .457 OPS against Kerr in 26 plate appearances; righties had a .472 OPS in 40. Saturday’s order placed Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández around Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. If Los Angeles uses a similar order, Kerr will have to retire good right-handed hitters to reach the lefties Atlanta may particularly want him to face.

The bullpen handoff

Atlanta has more late-inning choices than it did Saturday.

AJ Smith-Shawver threw 53 pitches and Brent Suter 33 in Game 1, but Didier Fuentes, Robert Suárez, Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias did not pitch. Walt Weiss indicated Fuentes and Suárez should be available after sitting out Saturday. Grant Holmes threw 28 pitches on Thursday; Atlanta has not committed publicly to a bulk arm behind Kerr. I would assume either Holmes or JR Ritchie could serve as a bulk arm if Weiss wants to go that route rather than a true bullpen game, and the route they take likely depends on the score - do they push the chips in if Atlanta’s trailing?

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Opposing Starter: LHP Blake Snell (4-1, 1.90 ERA)

Quick snapshot

• 1.90 ERA / 2.17 xERA in nine starts and 42⅔ innings

• 31.8% strikeout rate / 9.2% walk rate

• 49.5% four-seamer, 21.9% curveball, 17.8% changeup, 10.8% slider. The fastball averaged 96 mph, the curve 79.9, the changeup 84.8 and the slider 88.8.

Atlanta’s path against Snell

• The fastball–curveball combination is the principal obstacle. Hitters batted .179 and slugged .224 against his four-seamer. The curveball was even harder to square up: .111 average, .139 slugging and a 43.1% whiff rate. Simply deciding to sit on the fastball leaves Atlanta vulnerable to a breaking ball with substantial glove-side movement.

• The changeup has offered the best contact opportunity, though it still misses bats. Opponents hit .333 and slugged .424 against it, versus a 44.7% whiff rate. Those figures come from just 35 plate appearances ending on a changeup. Atlanta should look to punish one that stays up, without treating every changeup as a pitch to chase below the zone.

• A right-handed lineup is not an automatic solution. Righties managed a .503 OPS against Snell in 120 plate appearances; lefties posted a .583 OPS in 53. The smaller left-handed sample included eight walks. Baldwin, Olson and Harris have a difficult matchup, but Snell’s 2026 results do not support removing a productive lefty simply to gain the platoon advantage.

• Atlanta has seen both versions of Snell this year. In his May 9 season debut against the Braves, he gave up five runs, four earned, on six hits and two walks in three innings. He also struck out five and generated 16 swings and misses; it was hardly a case of Atlanta seeing no stuff. After the All-Star break, he posted a 1.13 ERA in eight starts, with 50 strikeouts in 39⅔ innings. The May result shows Atlanta can capitalize when he fails to finish at-bats, but it should not be assumed as his current form.

• Make him work without surrendering the hittable strike. Snell’s 9.2% walk rate creates more chances for free baserunners than Skubal’s did. Atlanta scored only once against Skubal in six innings Saturday, then made its late push against the bullpen. A walk and one well-timed swing against Snell would change the shape of this game; prolonged takes at 96 mph could just put Braves hitters into curveball counts.

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Snell runs with a four-seamer as his only fastball, while he varies which breaking ball he’s featuring next to it - early and when behind, it’s the slider, while he swaps it out for a lot of curveballs when ahead. The changeup almost never gets thrown except as a tendency breaker in pitcher’s counts.

vs RHH: Snell’s changeup replaces the slider’s usage to righties, with the curveball continuing to predominantly be thrown in advantage counts. The slider is a threat throughout the at-bat, but it's never used heavily.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Not a lot of usage for LA so far, just single-inning stints.

As a reminder, here’s the roles for everyone:

• Closer: Tanner Scott (lefty)

• Setup: Edwin Díaz, Evan Phillips

  • Scott worked in the closer role while Díaz was out with injury this season and even after he returned, it was mostly lower-leverage situations.

• Middle relief: Alex Vesia (L), Roki Sasaki, Brock Stewart, Kris Bubic (L), Edgardo Henriquez

  • Henriquez is the big addition here - he’s been on the IL with a back issue, but made this roster and is their best flamethrowing righty in the pen. For a Braves team that’s struggled with velo at times this year, he might play a big role.

  • Vesia’s their Dylan Lee - a modest 4S/slider guy that’s trusted to handle the toughest lefties, while Bubic’s more of a Brent Suter analog - multiple pitches and can go multiple innings, with uninspiring FB velocity (91.9 mph)

  • Sasaki worked as the closer last postseason, and has both great stuff and little idea where it’s going. His splitter and forkball are two of the toughest pitches to hit on this roster, when he can manage to both throw a strike to set them up and to throw them remotely close to the zone.

Umpire information

Behind the plate: Chris Guccione. UmpScorecards lists 93.46% accuracy across 28 games in its indexed 2026 data, with his accuracy coming in -0.6% below expected and his consistency towards the bottom of the range at 93.6%. His accuracy is 50th out of 91 home plate umpires in MLB this year, with his consistency score of 93.61% being 67th out of 91.

His ABS overturn rate of 54% is tied for 44th in baseball; of 130 challenges against him, 70 have been successful.

For this matchup, pay attention to how the bottom edge is called on Kerr’s curve and Snell’s curve and changeup—and to whether hitters use an ABS challenge on a consequential borderline pitch.

Final Thought

The Braves are +194 on the moneyline to LA’s -235, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The hinge point is Can Kerr buy Atlanta enough outs to choose its next pitcher, rather than have the Dodgers choose for it?

Dodd accomplished that first task Saturday, only for the next two Atlanta arms to surrender the decisive homers. Kerr has shown he can turn over a strong lineup, and Atlanta’s rested leverage relievers give Weiss more ways to finish a close game. The Braves’ offense has a narrower assignment against Snell: get a runner on, attack a changeup left in the zone or a mistake fastball, and make Los Angeles call for its bullpen with the game still within reach.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.