It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: Fox/Fox One
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 76° and mostly sunny, with wind ESE at 8 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Sean Murphy
3B Austin Riley
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Murphy continues to be the designated hitter; Weiss says that it gives them flexibility to pinch-hit for him while ensuring continuity behind the plate.
Murphy’s 1-4 with a double against Yamamoto, while Kim is 3-7 with a homer.
Bench breakdown:
Atlanta’s bench today will have:
Lefty 1B/DH bat: Rowdy Tellez
Platoon outfielders: Mike Yastrzemski & Lane Thomas
4th outfielder: Brewer Hicklen
Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup
SS Mookie Betts
1B Freddie Freeman
LF Teoscar Hernández
C Will Smith
DH Shohei Ohtani
2B Miguel Rojas
CF Andy Pages
RF Kyle Tucker
2B Kiké Hernández
Quick thoughts:
Dodgers are shaking things up a bit, with Shohei Ohtani dropping to the #5 spot in the order (last time he’s hit this low since 2020 with the Angels) and sticking both Rojas and Hernández into the lineup.
Bench breakdown:
Backup catcher: Hunter Feduccia.
Backup infielder/pinch-runner: Hyeseong Kim
Backup outfielder: Josue De Paula
Utilityman: Tommy Edman
Platoon corner infielder Max Muncy
Pitching Matchup
Braves Opener: LHP Chris Sale (14-9, 2.16)
Quick snapshot
2.16 ERA / approximately 2.96 xERA in 162⅔ regular-season innings
200 strikeouts; 30.9% strikeout rate / 4.8% walk rate
41.4% four-seamer, 39.9% slider, 10.3% changeup, 8.4% sinker. The four-seamer averaged 96.1 mph, the slider 79.7.
What to watch
The Dodgers have seen Sale at his best twice this year. He allowed two earned runs over 16 innings against them, culminating in that August shutout with 11 strikeouts and no walks. That is a substantial recent matchup result, though Los Angeles can change its lineup and approach rather than simply replay the August game.
His slider remains the defining pitch. Hitters batted .186 and slugged .247 against it, with a 38.2% whiff rate. Sale throws it roughly as often as his fastball despite a velocity gap of more than 16 mph. The key for Los Angeles is recognizing the slider before committing to the 96 mph fastball; the key for Sale is getting ahead so the slider can finish below or off the plate.
A right-handed lineup does not erase his advantage. Righties had a .570 OPS against Sale across 486 plate appearances; lefties had a .595 OPS across 162. The Dodgers may put more right-handed bats near the top and could sit Max Muncy again, but Sale’s 2026 results offer little evidence of a matchup they can solve merely by stacking righties.
The extra rest is part of the plan. Sale last started a week ago, when he threw 95 pitches over 6⅓ innings against Philadelphia. He also threw 21 pitches to get the final four outs of Thursday’s Wild Card clincher. Atlanta made 25 of his 27 regular-season starts with at least one extra day of rest, then won Game 2 while holding him for tonight. Watch his fastball velocity and slider command early as we’re looking to see if there’s any ill effects from the Thursday relief outing.
Opposing Starter: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-9, 2.53 ERA)
Quick snapshot
2.53 ERA / 2.94 xERA across 185 innings; 0.87 WHIP
25.7% strikeout rate / 5.9% walk rate
26.6% splitter, 26.2% four-seamer, 14.9% cutter, 13.2% curveball, 13.1% sinker, 6.1% slider. The four-seamer averaged 96.1 mph; the splitter, 91.5.
Atlanta’s path against Yamamoto
The splitter is still the pitch that decides at-bats. Hitters batted .158 and slugged .271 against it, and it generated a 33.8% whiff rate. Its whiff rate was down from 42.1% in 2025, but a 91.5 mph splitter paired with a 96 mph fastball remains difficult to distinguish in time. Atlanta has to resist the one that finishes below the zone.
His arsenal is broader than a fastball–splitter pairing. Yamamoto used his sinker and cutter more this year, giving hitters pitches that move in opposite directions at roughly 95.5 and 91.6 mph. His four-seamer generated a 29.1% whiff rate, but its .465 expected slugging percentage was higher than the actual .355 slugging he allowed. An elevated fastball that catches too much plate is a better target than the splitter tumbling beneath it.
The platoon split does not give Atlanta’s lefties an obvious break. Left-handed hitters managed a .511 OPS against Yamamoto in 378 plate appearances; righties posted a .586 OPS in 330. Baldwin, Olson and Harris are starting for their offensive value, but they should not expect an easier version of Yamamoto just because they bat left-handed.
Baldwin supplied the winning formula once—and Yamamoto adjusted. Baldwin homered on an elevated, first-pitch splitter on August 27. Yamamoto then held Atlanta scoreless for the rest of his 6⅓ innings, striking out eight and walking one. The takeaway is to punish the rare splitter or fastball that stays up immediately; waiting for him to repeat that mistake may mean waiting all night.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Yoshi’s a three-fastball guy, and his four-seamer is the primary one to lefties. It’s attempting to set up the splitter, which is the primary ahead/two-strike pitch, while both the cutter and curveball are early strike-stealers and catch-up pitches rather than putaway offerings.
vs RHH: The splitter’s still the primary whiff pitch, but all three fastballs carry the fastball load - four-seamer more in pitcher’s counts, sinker and cutter more in hitter’s counts. The slider gets used as a secondary whiff offering, while the curveball’s more of an early strike-stealer and catch-up pitch.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
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Atlanta’s Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Possible limitations:
Walt Weiss told us that Robert Suarez was unavailable on Saturday after he pitched on Thursday. Does that mean that he’s down today after pitching on Sunday?
I can’t imagine Didier Fuentes is available after throwing 47 pitches on Sunday.
Ray Kerr, obviously, is not part of the standard relief corps at this point, but he may be available for a single inning tomorrow before getting the opener assignment again in a possible game five.
Takeaway: The Braves feel like they’re fine here, but they need length from Sale - Fuentes likely doesn’t get used today and I’d like to avoid a situation where they need Dylan Lee to take leverage innings.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Possible limitations:
As a converted starter, I’d imagine Roki Sasaki’s probably not going today after his 36-pitch effort in Sunday’s game two.
Takeaway: Outside of Sasaki, LA’s probably in a good spot today…although any extended outings from Edgardo Henriquez or lefty Kris Bubic probably rule them out of game four.
Umpire information
Behind the plate: James Hoye. UmpScorecards has him at 93.6% accuracy and 94.04% expected accuracy. His accuracy is 42nd out of 91 umpires this season, and his .44% below expected is tied for 44th out of 91 umpires.
The practical early read is whether he gives Sale’s sweeping slider or Yamamoto’s falling splitter a strike at the bottom edge—and how the clubs use ABS challenges on those calls.
Final Thought
The Braves are -106 on the moneyline to LA’s -110, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 6.5 runs. The hinge point is Which ace gets hitters to chase beneath the zone first?
Sale’s slider and Yamamoto’s splitter both become more dangerous after strike one. In August, Baldwin attacked Yamamoto’s elevated splitter before that plan could take hold, and Sale kept Los Angeles scoreless all night. Atlanta’s route tonight is early damage on a pitch left up, discipline on the splitter below the zone, and enough length from Sale to hand a close game directly to its rested late-inning relievers.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
Oops. Michael hitting 5th. Still wrong in my opinion.
Sale's dominance this year has come without run support. The offense MUST supply; so why is GIDP candidate Olson hitting third, Ozzie hitting 4 and Harris hitting 6? Harris is the best hitter on this team per stats. He's also the most clutch, which a clutch hit could determine the final score.