It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: Fox/Fox One
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 76° and mostly sunny, with wind NE at 4 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
RF Ronald Acuña Jr
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Drake Baldwin
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Murphy gets back behind the plate to catch Mahle, while Acuña returns to right field after a one-game stop at designated hitter because of his balky left knee.
Bench breakdown:
Atlanta’s bench today will have:
Lefty 1B/DH bat: Rowdy Tellez
Platoon outfielder: Lane Thomas
4th outfielder: Brewer Hicklen
Backup shortstop: Ha-Seong Kim
Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup
SS Mookie Betts
1B Freddie Freeman
C Will Smith
DH Shohei Ohtani
LF Teoscar Hernández
3B Max Muncy
2B Enrique Hernández
RF Kyle Tucker
CF Andy Pages
Quick thoughts:
Dodgers are sticking with mostly the same guys (Muncy at third for Rojás at second is the only change), but in a different order: Shohei moves up to #4 and Kiké moves to the #7 spot, while Tucker and Pages move down to #8 and #9, respectively.
Bench breakdown:
Backup catcher: Hunter Feduccia.
Backup infielder/pinch-runner: Hyeseong Kim
Backup outfielder: Josue De Paula
Utilityman: Tommy Edman
Platoon corner infielder: Miguel Rojás, who left yesterday’s game with a mild injury.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.99)
Quick snapshot
3.99 ERA / 3.95 xERA, 22.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate for the full regular season.
1.99 ERA in nine starts with Atlanta. His Braves approach features considerably more splitters and fewer cutters than his earlier Giants approach.
What to watch
The splitter is the first pitch to evaluate. Mahle raised its usage from roughly a quarter of his pitches with San Francisco to nearly 39% with Atlanta, while cutting his cutter usage below 10%. That is a meaningful change in how he attacks hitters, even if nine starts are too few to treat a 1.99 ERA as his new baseline. Watch whether the splitter finishes below the zone after looking like his roughly 93 mph four-seamer.
His season split makes the Dodgers’ righties a serious test. Across both clubs, left-handed hitters batted .221/.272/.373 against Mahle; righties hit .288/.361/.442. The splitter gives him an answer for Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy, but Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández cannot be treated as easier outs between them. Those splits do include his less effective Giants starts, so they are a warning rather than a precise forecast for tonight’s pitch mix.
The Dodgers have seen Mahle once, but they have not seen this Mahle. Pitching for San Francisco on April 22, he threw seven scoreless innings against Los Angeles. He has since altered his arsenal substantially. The earlier outing establishes that he can handle this lineup; its pitch patterns offer the Dodgers an incomplete guide to his Atlanta version.
His last start answered a workload question. Mahle worked seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against Philadelphia in the Wild Card round, despite suffering an abdominal pull during warmups, according to Walt Weiss. The thing to monitor is whether his delivery and splitter command look normal, without assuming that last week’s issue still limits him.
Opposing Starter: RHP Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 3.53 ERA)
Quick snapshot
3.53 ERA / 2.88 xERA in 13 starts and 73 innings
34.0% strikeout rate / 8.7% walk rate
34.7% four-seamer, 26.3% curveballs (including the knuckle curve), 21.3% sinker and 17.7% slider. His four-seamer averages 95.5 mph and his curveball group roughly 81 mph.
(Savant displays the knuckle curve and conventional curve separately in one arsenal view, then combines them in its pitch-result table.)
Atlanta’s path against Glasnow
Do not help the curveball. It generated a 53.2% whiff rate and held hitters to a .119 average and .238 slugging percentage. His slider also missed bats at a 39.6% rate. Atlanta’s best chance is to identify the breaking ball early enough to leave it below the zone, even when Glasnow gets ahead.
The four-seamer is the better target for damage. Opponents hit .244 and slugged .453 against it, with a 17.7% whiff rate—quite different from the curve. It still arrives at 95–96 mph, so this calls for a ready swing on a fastball in the zone, not an indiscriminate fastball hunt that makes the curve easier to finish with.
Left-handed bats have reached base slightly more often, but neither side has solved him. Lefties posted a .565 OPS in 177 plate appearances and righties a .528 OPS in 111. Baldwin, Olson and Harris belong in the plan because they are among Atlanta’s best hitters, not because Glasnow has a pronounced left-handed vulnerability.
Atlanta scored early against him in August, then watched him adjust. In his first start back from a lengthy absence with back spasms, Glasnow allowed three first-inning runs at Truist Park. He then struck out the side in the second and finished with seven strikeouts over five innings. The Braves’ six hits and three runs in that start show an opening, but he was making his first major-league appearance in more than three months; his recent back-to-back double-digit-strikeout starts are stronger evidence of his present form.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Glasnow’s building the plane around getting to his curveballs, as he throws both a standard and a harder ‘knuckle’ version when ahead in the count and with two strikes. The four-seamer and sinker see more use when he’s behind in the count, while the slider is a pretty consistent 1-in-10 pitch across the entire at-bat.
vs RHH: The slider’s a much bigger part of the overall attack here, although more of an establishing pitch than for whiffs with two outs. The four-seamer’s a pretty consistent 3-in-10 no matter the state of the at-bat, although the sinker’s much more prevalent when behind than when ahead. Both curveballs are really only thrown in pitcher’s counts.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Are you ready for retirement? Ford Stokes and Zac Blackerby are Braves fans who want to help you make sure you have income for life. Email Zac (zac@activewealth.com) or Ford (ford@activewealth.com) for your free Social Security roadmap today.
Atlanta’s Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Possible limitations:
Just based on pitch counts, there shouldn’t be anyone explicitly down today.
Takeaway: It doesn’t feel like anyone’s off the table in a potential elimination game for Atlanta.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Possible limitations:
I don’t see anyone from this group being down for LA today, just based on pitch counts.
Takeaway: Atlanta has gotten second looks at everyone in the leverage group but Sasaki, so if the Braves need a late rally, they may have some familiarity with the opposing reliever.
Umpire information
Behind the plate: Tripp Gibson. UmpScorecards has him at 94.15% accuracy and 94.00% expected accuracy. His accuracy is 21st out of 91 umpires this season, and his .1% above expected is 19th out of 91 umpires.
On ABS challenges, he has 61 overturns in 121 challenges, so close to 50%.
The consequential calls to watch are the bottom edge on Mahle’s splitter and Glasnow’s curve; both offenses may need an ABS challenge when a two-strike pitch there determines an at-bat.
Final Thought
The Braves are +128 on the moneyline to LA’s -152, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The hinge point is Can Atlanta do its damage before Glasnow earns a curveball count?
The Braves scored three first-inning runs against him in August, but Glasnow quickly found his breaking ball. Mahle’s task is to make his splitter look like a strike long enough to keep Los Angeles’ power from sitting on the four-seamer. Atlanta’s is to attack a hittable fastball early, keep the curve below the zone, and give its rested late-inning arms a lead worth protecting.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
Lindsay, I hope this is not the last one of these you get to write this season... But if it is, I just wanted you to know how much I have enjoyed them. They have enhanced my viewing experience and I thank you for that! My BT sub is worth every penny! Thank you, Sir!