The Trade Market Might Already Be Forming
Breaking down realistic fits, sneaky targets, and the kinds of moves the Braves could make
If there’s anyone who would know a thing or two about trading, it’s Dave Dombrowski.
Currently the President of Baseball Operations for the Philadelphia Phillies, Dombrowski’s been one of the two GMs in recent history not afraid to take massive swings. (The other is Padres POBO AJ Preller.)
A far-from-comprehensive list of players who have been either acquired or dealt by Dombrowski includes Chris Sale (getting, 2015), David Price (getting, ‘14), Mike Piazza (getting AND dealing), Gary Sheffield (getting, in 1993), Randy Johnson (dealing in 1989), Max Scherzer (getting, 2009), Prince Fielder (dealing, 2013), Ian Kinsler (getting in that Fielder trade), and Miguel Cabrera (getting, in 2007).
So when Dombrowski tells the media that trade talks are already heating up, sooner than ever in Major League Baseball, it draws attention…and inspires a newsletter.
Let’s take a way too early look at the trade market as we approach the deadline, trying to make realistic attempts at who might be available that would fit Atlanta’s roster.
Why This Trade Market Might Be Different
Ever since MLB expanded the postseason, adding a third wild card for the 2022 season, it feels like the trade deadline has simultaneously had more and less juice.
More juice because there’s a larger group of teams that are truly in it as we get to the end of July and the deadline approaches.
Less juice because it takes a long time for the dam to break and the deals to start flowing.
But this year feels different. We are just shy of one quarter of the way through the schedule and there’s been some significant separation in the standings.
While only one division leader’s lead is up to eight games or more (and that’s your Atlanta Braves), there are nine teams that are already 8.5 games or farther back of the top of their division. Some of those will climb back into contention - the Phillies have already moved up to 2nd place in the NL East by virtue of going 8-2 in their last ten games - but for a lot of these teams, the writing’s already on the wall.
Conversely, there are currently six NL teams five games or less out of a wild card spot right now, while the AL is more wide open. Because of the overall mediocrity of the junior circuit, which has only two teams above .500 (really), every single team is within five games of a Wild Card spot.
More teams already feel locked into one direction or another is what I’m saying.
And that’s the reason that the trade talk is already starting.
The other reason is that the teams that are out of it are really out of it. The Houston Astros, for example, have six position players, including four Opening Day starters, on the injured list, have six different starting pitchers, and both closer Josh Hader and their only major offseason bullpen signing in Nate Pearson.
The Mets and Giants are both fighting daily battles to stay less than ten games below .500, with injury-decimated position players (Mets, mostly), rotation (Mets), and bullpen groups (Giants). Those two teams rank 29th and 30th in runs scored and have rotation ERAs in the bottom half of the league.
All of those teams have worse records than the West Coast also-rans in the Angels and Rockies, who figure to be challenging for the worst records in baseball in short order.
What do the Braves actually NEED?
Tier rankings are fun, right? Let’s talk about where Atlanta needs to consider reinforcing the roster as of now, as well as projecting if this position could naturally get better between now and the end of July (assuming injuries don’t strike).
Tier 1: Must Address
Left-handed relief: Dylan Lee’s been fantastic this year, continuing his run of being one of the most underrated lefties in baseball, even if we don’t really know why.
But behind him, Aaron Bummer’s stuff and locations have regressed to reduce him to a decidedly average option, while the currently injured Dylan Dodd has reverse platoon splits and youngster Hayden Harris currently has more walks (15) than innings pitched (13) in Triple-A Gwinnett.
A starting pitcher: “But Atlanta’s rotation is top four in ERA at 3.22!” Hear me out here.
First, their ERA is slightly better than their xERA (3.76, 6th) and significantly better than their FIP (4.36, 21st). There is a real chance that this continues to regress a bit; it’s already dropped from best in the league to ‘only’ fourth, as we warned it would.
Second is the lack of whiffs from the roster. Several Braves starters, most prominently youngster JR Ritchie and veteran Martín Pérez, are more of the groundball-inducing backend starters than ‘Stuff monsters’ that seem to dominate the postseason. And for the remaining non-Chris Sale and Bryce Elder options, namely Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Hurston Waldrep, we don’t yet know what version of those guys Atlanta is getting back.
Tier 2: “Wouldn’t It Be Nice?”
(Hi kids, this is a Beach Boys reference. Ask your parents.)
An outfield bat: The only reason this is currently listed as a want instead of a need is that much of the outfield uncertainty has a chance to resolve itself. Ronald Acuña Jr. is currently working his way back from a hamstring strain, while Michael Harris II is playing through his quad ‘tightness’, and Mike Yastrzemski hasn’t been punched by the aging curve; he’s just pressing as he navigates through a slow start in a new city.
This has the capacity to rise to a Tier 1 need or drop off the map altogether.
Another leverage arm: You can never have enough relievers, especially in the postseason, where the hooks on your starters are shorter than ever and the rest days mean that many relievers can pitch in virtually every game of a series. They weren’t alive in the postseason long enough for it to matter, but San Diego’s 2025 ‘super pen’ of Robert Suarez, Mason Miller, Jason Adam, and Adrián Morejón is the model here.
Who’s Actually Selling?
Let’s make two groups - the first is the teams we identified above that are likely already baked into the “not competing” group based on their situations, as well as the teams that can reasonably be projected to be at risk of the same.
Hay’s in the barn here: Astros
They’ll get there: Rockies, White Sox, Angels, Nationals, Twins
On the watch list: Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers, Tigers, Royals, Mets, Giants
Without going too deep into every single team listed, several on the watch list have either negative run differentials that lay bare their luck-fueled record (*cough cough Reds cough*), expiring contracts that don’t make sense to keep (Diamondbacks are a big one here), or other complicating factors that will knock them out of the race between now and July.
What Deals Are Out There?
We’re not going to just throw a giant list of players here. Let’s instead sort these into the types of moves that Atlanta has in front of them and give some reasonable examples of the players who could fill that category.
The Classic Anthopoulos Move
Think back to some of the recent Alex Anthopoulos trades. They all felt a little…cute. Tyler Kinley, Pierce Johnson, and Aaron Bummer were the “talented reliever with an outlier pitch in a bad situation” moves. This year’s version of that would be Ryan Zeferjahn of the Angels. Raisel Iglesias and Jorge Soler were the “we’ll take all the money to get the player” moves, although Soler was later traded away by Atlanta that offseason. This year’s version would be something like Andrew Kittredge of the Orioles ($10M salary) or closer Kenley Jansen of the Tigers ($11M salary).
The Big Swing
This is the classic deadline deal - a big name on an expiring deal, being rented by a contender for a few months prior to heading to free agency. There’s more competition here and the prices are higher, but the potential impact is both easier to realize and potentially greater than the “we’re clever” moves AA usually prefers.
Starting pitchers on expiring deals: Robbie Ray (Giants), Freddy Peralta (Mets), Trevor Rogers (Orioles), Zac Gallen & Michael Soroka (Diamondbacks), Dustin May (Cardinals), Sonny Gray (Red Sox)
Starting pitchers with additional control: Joe Ryan (Twins), Sandy Alcantara (Marlins), Seth Lugo (Royals, 2028 club option), Luis Severino (Athletics, player option)
Lefty relievers w/ control: Erik Miller (Giants), John King (Marlins), Jacob Latz (Rangers), Daniel Lynch (Royals)
Outfielders on expiring deals: George Springer (Blue Jays), Taylor Ward (Orioles), Jorge Soler (Angels “outfielder”), Austin Hays (White Sox), Ramon Laureano (Padres)
The Sneaky Fit
Reliever Seranthony Domínguez, White Sox: He’s in the first year of a two-year, $20M deal for the notoriously frugal White Sox, so they could deal him. He has five pitches, including two fastballs (which Jeremy Hefner likes), and is being plagued by an outlier homer rate that’s likely to regress to the mean, like what happened with Raisel Iglesias last year.
Reliever Taylor Rogers, Twins: What’s that, a sidearming lefty on an AL Central team that’s having a down year? Sounds familiar. It’s a sweeper/slider/cutter profile that used to get a lot more ground balls than it currently does, but is potentially a cheap way to plug a lefty groundball specialist-sized hole in the bullpen down the stretch.
Outfielder Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals: Still out after offseason surgery on both of his heels, Nootbaar’s been a breakout candidate for a few years now, one that can play both outfield corners and has additional team control through 2027 via arbitration. But by the time he’s expected to come back, will there be a spot for him between the major leaguers (led by finally-put-it-together Jordan Walker), top outfield prospect Joshua Báez, and 2023 day one draftees Chase Davis and Travis Honeyman?
The Bigger Picture
The interesting part about this deadline isn’t just who might be available.
It’s how early the market could start moving.
More teams than usual already feel locked into one direction or another, whether that’s contention or collapse. And if front offices believe that separation is real, the waiting game that usually defines June and early July may not happen to the same degree this season.
That matters for Atlanta.
Because the Braves don’t usually operate like a team chasing the biggest name on the board. Alex Anthopoulos has consistently preferred targeted additions: players with one standout trait, awkward contracts, rebound potential, or market inefficiencies other teams don’t value the same way.
That doesn’t mean Atlanta can’t make a major move.
It just means the most likely answer is probably something a little weirder than fans expect.
And honestly, that’s usually where Anthopoulos does his best work. The “cute” moves count too.