Before the concept of fiat currency was a thing, bartering for goods and services required more than just finding someone who wanted what you have to offer. That other party also needed to have something that you wanted and be willing to exchange it with you.
Economists have given this a name: The double coincidence of wants.
The Atlanta Braves want something that the New York Yankees have to offer: affordable starting pitching.
The problem is that the Yankees have several roster needs of their own, and it’s unclear whether Atlanta has anything New York wants badly enough to surrender Will Warren or Ryan Weathers for it.
Anyone can identify a trade target. But building the actual framework of a trade is considerably harder. Let’s talk about it.
Why the Yankees might deal a starter
In somewhat of an anomaly for a Major League Baseball team, the Yankees have more than enough high-level starters to field a full rotation.
It’s hard to argue that flamethrowing youngster Cam Schlittler, this year’s American League Cy Young favorite, isn’t the current ace of the staff. He’s backed by 2023 Cy Young winner and two-time ERA Title champ Gerrit Cole, who is on a large free agent deal, as is old friend Max Fried and veteran lefty Carlos Rodón.
The competition for the final spot comes down to Warren, Weathers, former first round pick Clarke Schmidt, 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, and top prospects Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Lagrange.
Remember what we talked about with the Boston Red Sox and their propensity to move back-end starters to address other needs? If you have a surplus of #5 starters, then those guys have more value to a pitching-needy organization than they do to you. Boston’s capitalized on that, sending out nine different starting pitchers over the last year to either consolidate into a top end starter (the Sonny Gray deal with St. Louis) or to acquire position players like Willson Contreras (St. Louis), Caleb Durbin (Milwaukee), and Curtis Mead (Washington).
New York’s in that same boat. They can reasonably project ten rotation options for 2027, with four of them locked into rotation spots due to either performance (Schlittler) or money (Cole, Fried, and Rodón). Why not trade one to address some position player deficiencies? They might move more than one if ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel is right in his belief that New York will pursue ace Tarik Skubal in free agency and then trade even harder from their pitching surplus to build the roster’s position player depth.
Who might be available?
Each of the available Yankees starters have both reasons for Atlanta to buy and a catch to the guy, one that could sink the outcome of the deal if Atlanta misses on their evaluation.
Will Warren is the workload bet. Warren threw 318⅓ innings over the last two seasons, qualifying for the ERA title in 2025 and falling just six innings short in 2026. He’s struck out 23.9% of batters for his career and sits at a 103 Stuff+ for his career, working with a five pitch mix that is right in Atlanta pitching coach Jeremy Hefner’s wheelhouse.
The downside here is that he’s also likely to be the most expensive option here, with four more seasons of control.
Ryan Weathers is the ceiling option. Acquired via trade from frequent trade partner (and secondary Yankees broadcast market) Miami, Weathers has electric stuff from the left-hand side, relying on a changeup and both a sweeper and slider. He’s dying to be given a cutter to bridge the breaking balls (and disguise his dead zone-ish four-seamer), as well as some sort of vertical or two-plane breaking ball like an 11-to-5 curveball. He’s got better strikeout-and-walk indicators than Warren and two remaining seasons of affordable control.
His downside is that he’s had forearm and broader durability concerns, pitching just 418.1 innings in his six year MLB career. Last season’s 137.1 innings was the first time he’s broken 100 in a single season in the majors.
Luis Gil is the reclamation project. He was stellar in 2024, winning the AL ROTY award with 151.2 innings of 3.50 ERA ball. But he’s made just fifteen starts since then, dealing with back issues and a loss of control that saw him put up a negative strikeout-to-walk-ratio in limited 2026 MLB action.
While the potential return on Gil is obvious, the downside is significant. He does nothing to solve Atlanta’s workload issue and isn’t guaranteed to return to form, meaning this needs to be an ancillary move, not the main rotation addition.
There’s one more guy to talk about
The New York Yankees may have had enough of Anthony Volpe. The former Gold Glove winner has fallen out of favor in New York, with top prospect George Lombard Jr. having taken his shortstop job and being rumored to be on the trade block after twice being optioned to Triple-A during the season.
The hard part is knowing whether or not the Yankees will make him available. With incumbent second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. heading to free agency and trade deadline acquisition Luis Garcia Jr. much stronger defensively at first than second, Volpe may be ticketed for the second base job in 2027. He played like a man possessed when he returned to the major league lineup late in the year to make that case, hitting .286 after September 10th (including the postseason) with four doubles, a homer, 10 RBIs, and five stolen bases.
But if the Yankees are ready to move on from the youngster, who hit just .245 with a .658 OPS in his 70 games last year, the Braves could always move him back to his natural shortstop position given their decimated depth chart at the position. It would be a reclamation project-type acquisition for Atlanta, but one that has the potential to pay off over the final three years of his team control.
What does New York actually want?
And here’s where the double coincidence of wants comes in.
New York’s apparent weaknesses manifest at both second and third base, as well as behind the plate and in the bullpen. There are ways to see a match with Atlanta, but none of them are obvious and require some creativity.
Third base has been a struggle for both teams, with Austin Riley’s persistent slump and Ryan McMahon’s failure to capitalize on Yankee Stadium’s short porch making this a wash. It’s unlikely the Braves move on from Austin Riley just yet (which would create an equally large hole in the lineup), so there’s likely not a deal to be made here.
Second base is in a similar position, although it’s possible (albeit unlikely) that Atlanta sends the final season of Ozzie Albies’ team control to New York if they’re comfortable in signing someone (re-signing Mauricio Dubón or adding J.P. Crawford or Luis Arraez in free agency) to replace him.
The bullpen is in a similar spot to second base - Atlanta has surplus pieces they could move, like James Karinchak, but it’d require additional prospects to get the deal done as no one they’d want to move would meet New York’s price to give up a starter.
But catcher? That’s worth a conversation. Austin Wells is a quality defensive catcher and one of the league’s best framers, adding in fluent Spanish to boot. He’s struggled at the plate, however, hitting just .186 this season with a .624 OPS (although with a .229 average and .787 OPS after the All-Star Break).
New York’s reportedly interested in a right-handed complement to the lefty-hitting Wells, with their trade deadline talks centering around Ryan Jeffers of Minnesota and Tyler Stephenson of Cincinnati. It’s possible to see a match with Atlanta for the final two seasons of righty-hitting Sean Murphy, priced at $15M each, although seeing New York decide to acquire Murphy instead of just signing Jeffers or Stephenson in free agency is a bit of a stretch.
While the Braves would need to find a backup to the lefty-hitting Drake Baldwin, who would keep his #1 catcher duties, trading Murphy is the cleanest fit to try and make a deal with the Yankees.
Let’s try to build the deals
The most plausible
Atlanta receives: Ryan Weathers
New York receives: Dylan Dodd or Dylan Lee, a good positional prospect and a secondary lottery ticket
This is the cleanest construction here, one where Atlanta skips including any of the veteran hitters and instead deals from their lefty bullpen depth with either converted starter Dodd or the lesser-control-but-more-reputable Lee. New York would convert a spare starting pitcher into an immediate bullpen weapon while also adding a young position player talent, although they likely would require an actual talent - they moved four prospects for Weathers last winter, three of which were in the middle portion of their farm system. It doesn’t track that they’d trade him for less now, so this is likely one of the non-Tate-Southisene shortstop prospects like Alex Lodise or John Gil.
The Braves would also need to backfill the bullpen after this move.
The most expensive
Atlanta receives: Will Warren
New York receives: A premium Braves position player prospect plus a second meaningful piece.
I know that Warren projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, which the Braves have a few of right now. But his ability to give workload, proven availability, and the extended control means that Atlanta is likely asked to part with one of their best prospects in an Eric Hartman, Tate Southisene, or Cam Caminiti, and the idea of sacrificing that level of talent for a back-end starter is a bit repulsive.
His performance, frankly, isn’t dominant enough to move a premium prospect just because free agent starters are expensive. If the Braves believe they can tweak his arsenal and usage to push him into a #3 role, that’s different, but as he profiles today, it’s an overpay based on the talent and stuff.
The reclamation project
Atlanta receives: Luis Gil
New York receives: A secondary prospect or a modest return
This only makes sense if the Yankees are preparing to non-tender Gil. If so, explore it as an ancillary add, but Gil can’t be Plan A to reinforce the rotation this winter. His persistent control issues and lack of availability are too risky to bank a World Series contender’s rotation on him rediscovering his 2024 form.
The seductive two-spot solution
Atlanta receives: Ryan Weathers and Anthony Volpe
New York receives: Sean Murphy and either a secondary piece for the bullpen or a meaningful prospect
This is the version that checks the most boxes, because it gives Atlanta both a shortstop option for 2027 and a potential high-end rotation piece in Weathers. The hard part is figuring out if the Yankees would want a second defense-first catcher in Murphy, or if they’d rather have one season of Ozzie Albies. And would that major league piece be enough to anchor the deal, or would they insist on a top prospect added instead of a mid-system one?
This proposal also requires Atlanta to nail the evaluation on Volpe’s most recent return to the majors and the performance surge that came with it: Is there a meaningful mechanical or approach change that they can point to as an explanation, or was it a short (and unsustainable) heater from a flawed player that will return to that form next year, when he’d be in Atlanta’s lineup on an everyday basis?
The verdict
I would call about Ryan Weathers, given his ceiling.
I know that’s a risk, given that last year was the first time he’s broken 100 innings in the majors, but it’s possible that he discovered something and/or has moved past his injuries.
And given that risk, I think that means keeping the package reasonable. A bullpen piece and legitimate (but non-elite) prospect would be the offer I make, and if New York demands any of the “big three” of Hartman, Southisene, or Caminiti, I’d walk.
Warren’s the preferable pitcher for innings/workload, but the extended control and durability likely means that they’re in that premium-prospect tier on their ask despite the midrotation (at best) performance.
I’m not opposed to acquiring Gil, but that’s an additional acquisition, not the main rotation reinforcement. Volpe’s worth discussing as part of a larger package, perhaps to offset an ask of a top tier prospect (or a major-leaguer like Murphy or Albies), but unlikely to be the sole move if Atlanta engages New York.
At the end of the day, the Yankees may have exactly what Atlanta needs, but the Braves likely don’t have what New York wants to get a deal across the finish line.