Today's Three Things: Atlanta Wins Series vs Toronto With Two Out Runs

The Atlanta Braves scored all seven of their runs with two outs in their series-clinching win over Toronto

The Atlanta Braves took down the Toronto Blue Jays 7-3 in Truist Park on Wednesday night, winning the series and setting themselves up for a sweep on Thursday.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

With all due respect to Grant Holmes’ Houdini act in the 1st inning, loading the bases with no outs and allowing only one run, we’re looking at the bottom of the third inning here.

Atlanta tied the game in the 2nd inning on a terrible defensive play by Nathan Lukes, but Lukes hit a solo homer to open the 3rd inning, taking back the lead for Toronto. That’s the context with which the top of Atlanta’s order came to bat.

It almost didn’t happen, though, as Ronald Acuña Jr. grounded out to shortstop and Michael Harris II flew out to left field to open the inning.

But Matt Olson singled on a 0-1 cutter that caught way too much of the plate, advancing to third on an Ozzie Albies double (also on a cutter) immediately after. And Mauricio Dubón got a 2-0 sinker and did not miss it, launching it to centerfield to push Atlanta back on top, 4-2. It was a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

(Walt Weiss discussed a different turning point, the top of the 6th, in his postgame media availability. We’ll get to that in just a minute.)

Today’s Player of the Game

Receiving 49% of the vote on the Postcast, it’s Mauricio Dubón.

I can’t imagine the recent change in playing time has been easy. Dubón was originally acquired to do what he’s doing now - rotate in against left-handers and provide high-level insurance for practically anyone on the baseball field. But the start of the season saw him playing almost every day, first at shortstop and then in the outfield, and coming up with plenty of clutch hits in the process.

Dubón has handled the transition well, according to folks I’ve spoken with, and has been prepared for any situation that team throws at him. Today, it was a start in left field and a high-leverage at-bat, one where he delivered.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Let’s talk about Grant Holmes.

With starter Hurston Waldrep officially on a rehab assignment and youngster AJ Smith-Shawver close behind him, many (including me) have predicted that Holmes would be the one moving back into the bullpen once the Braves add a starter.

Grant Holmes apparently took that personally.

The righty threw six innings tonight, allowing just two runs on five hits, walking two and striking out four. It lowered his ERA down to 3.86, which is the ‘worst’ ERA in the current rotation but more than acceptable from a fifth starter.

Unlike last time out, Holmes didn’t significantly deviate from his best sequencing, maintaining the four-seamer/slider combo as his primary weapon. He folded the changeup in the second time through and then ramped up the sinker and curveball the third time, which had much better results for the righty.

We saw how this worked for Holmes in the top of the sixth - facing the top of the Blue Jays lineup for a third time, he took advantage of the sinker by dropping it below the zone after four-seamers and running it to the other side of the plate after an inside slider to get his first two strikeouts.

But just because the results were better in the outing doesn’t mean the inputs weren’t concerning.

Holmes finished with just ten whiffs tonight, adding in 14 called strikes for a 27% CSW. That’s…fine, but it’s when he wasn’t getting a whiff or called strike that the problem arose: Of his eighteen balls in play, eleven were hard-hit. And because one of them was 110 mph and four more of them were 103 or harder, Holmes’ average exit velocity was 95.3. When you consider that he was working while ahead most of the time, throwing 17 first-pitch strikes to the 25 batters he faced, that’s a bit scary. His process worked out okay from a results perspective…this time, but averaging >95 mph on your batted ball events doesn’t feel sustainable.

I genuinely don’t know if this did anything to change the minds of the front office and coaching staff that the best move to make when the team’s ready to add a starter is sending Grant Holmes back into relief.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta’s hoping for the sweep on Thursday night. Chris Sale (8-3, 2.01) takes on ‘TBD’, with Toronto having a few options to cover the nine innings. They acquired starter Simeon Woods-Richardson from the Twins via trade today, so he could make the start if he can get to Atlanta in time. Minor leaguer Chad Dallas was added to Toronto’s taxi squad today and could get the start, or they could go with a bullpen game.

UPDATE: Blue Jays beat writer Mitch Gannon confirmed that lefty reliever Mason Fluharty will get the ball to start the finale, although it’s unknown if this will be a traditional bullpen game or if he’s opening for a bulk arm like SWR or Dallas.