Today’s Three Things: Braves BOTCH Bullpen Usage in Costly Loss to Phillies

The Atlanta Braves went to the wrong reliever at the wrong time, and it has them on the verge of elimination

The Atlanta Braves blew a late lead and dropped game two of the NL Wild Card 4-3 in ten innings to the Philadelphia Phillies in Truist Park on Wednesday afternoon.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The top of the 8th inning.

Tyler Mahle was masterful through seven - more on him in a minute - but with the top of the order due up, manager Walt Weiss went back to the well that gave him good results yesterday, asking lefty Dylan Lee to handle the Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper duo once again.

And this is exactly the reason I talk about process instead of results on Braves Today. Because while Lee pitched a scoreless 8th inning yesterday, he threw a LOT of sliders to do it and left several of them in terrible locations, to boot.

Well, Weiss called on him to go back out and take on Schwarber and Harper again today, with Atlanta holding a 3-1 lead, and the lead was gone after two batters.

Lee started off with a seven-pitch battle against Schwarber, throwing one fastball (that was fouled off) but otherwise just repeating the slider. On the seventh pitch, he hung one middle-middle. Schwarber LAUNCHED it, 111.7 mph off the bat and 447 feet, pushing Philly’s deficit to one.

It was the 9th slider he’s seen from Lee, across two ABs.

And then Harper, who was tracking to be the Philly goat in this game, got a chance at redemption. He got a slider of his own, down and in, and popped it out for his own homer, tying the game at three.

It was the 7th slider he’d seen in the series from Lee, across two ABs.

The concept of pitch decay is well known at this point — here’s fellow Substacker Lance Brozdowski, a pitching analyst for Marquee Sports Network, breaking down the concept last year.

This whole topic entered the baseball consciousness in the 2024 ALCS, when Cleveland’s amazing bullpen got overexposed and subsequently destroyed by the New York Yankees, but apparently Walt Weiss missed the memo.

Weiss was asked after the game why he didn’t go to Dylan Dodd or someone else in the 9th, and his answer was…less than satisfying

“No. Lee is our high-leverage lefty. Put down the same part of the order yesterday pretty easily. Threw the ball really well yesterday. So no, that’s his inning every time.”

I’d argue he absolutely did NOT throw the ball well yesterday, as I argued on social media after the game, but fine. Why not Robert Suarez there? Well, turns out Walt hasn’t seen him enough to be confident in him in that spot, either.

Q. How much was Robert Suarez a consideration in any high-leverage spot today?

WALT WEISS: “Not ahead of the other guys. Robert has thrown two innings in the last three months. He didn’t jump the line. He would have been next, but he wouldn’t have been in front of those other guys.”

Transcript comes courtesy of Atlanta’s comms team, who sent these to the media mailing list after the game. This postseason is the first time they’ve done it, but I’m definitely a fan.

Today’s Player of the Game

The shame here is that the bullpen decisions overshadowed an amazing start from Tyler Mahle.

Making his first career playoff appearance, Mahle struggled out of the gate, giving up a run on three hits in the first inning. He rebounded after that to pitch six more scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out six. It was actually more impressive that likely Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez, who also allowed a run in the first and then two more in the 7th before finally being chased with two outs.

Mahle navigated a third start against the Phillies well, making me initially question the concept of pitch decay, but unlike Lee, he did make changes. He was extraordinarily aggressive with the splitter, throwing it a career-high 58% and frequently to open at-bats. It worked, as well, with Mahle getting first-pitch strikes on 19 of the 28 batters he faced and not allowing an extra-base hit after the first inning.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Outside of the Walt Weiss bullpen decision? Let’s talk about the offense here.

The Braves offense was called for 25 called strikes today, and several of them ended at-bats. Matt Olson struck out looking to open the 10th, using one of Atlanta’s remaining ABS challenges in the process, while pinch-hitter Dominic Smith ended the game with a strikeout looking despite a runner being on first.

I’m sorry - I know the team’s chase rate is a problem, but hasn’t the terrible play of Philadelphia’s defense this series, including a 2 RBI “double” off the glove of Bryce Harper in today’s 7th inning, shown the value of putting the ball into play?

Overall, it wasn’t a terrible day for the offense, despite being outhomered 3-0, and they weren’t ultimately the reason Atlanta lost, but it was still frustrating.

What You’ll Be Talking About, Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

Atlanta’s bullpen.

Coming into the series, we discussed Atlanta’s bullpen being their main advantage over Philly. And Raisel Iglesias has been better than Duran - he’s pitched twice, giving up a total of two singles but not allowing any runs.

But outside of Iggy, the rest haven’t lived up to their end of the bargain. We’ve already covered Lee faltering today, while Fuentes did both yesterday (Realmuto’s two-RBI triple) and today’s 10th inning, where he got two quick outs of Schwarber and Harper before allowing an Alec Bohm homer and two consecutive singles.

And so now, it’s all hands on deck for a “win-or-go-home” game three, and the Braves are playing it with Iglesias, Fuentes, and Lee having worked both of the first two games. Suarez got hot and didn’t pitch today, either - he was throwing to take the 11th - so there’s a dry hump to go into the ledger, as well.

Someone needs to step up among the pitching staff tomorrow. Who that is remains to be seen, but Atlanta will need one of their pitchers to ascend if they want to hold serve against Philly tomorrow.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Game two is…so far undetermined as far as start time, as the Braves are beholden to the other teams in the field and their results. They’ll either play at 2PM (if either the Cubs or Red Sox win to force a game three) or at 8PM (if the Yankees and Padres win).

Atlanta hasn’t declared a starter for the elimination game, although my expectation is that Ray Kerr would open ahead of Grant Holmes. Philly hasn’t decided on a starter, although they have both Aaron Nola and a one-day-short-rest Zack Wheeler at their disposal.