Today's Three Things: Braves Lose Rain-Delayed Offensive Explosion to Mets

The Braves got started late after rain in the Atlanta area, bookending seven innings of no offense with a nine-run explosion

The Atlanta Braves dropped game three of their wraparound series against the New York Mets 10-9 in Truist Park on Sunday afternoon.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

From a win probability perspective, it was the bottom of the 9th.

This game was a bookend affair, with big innings early and late and relatively nothing in the middle. After the Mets scored five in the top of the 9th and things were seemingly academic at 10-3, Atlanta got to work against leverage reliever Huascar Brazobán in the 9th. (He was already warming up when it was a two-run game, so the Mets went ahead and put him into the game)

The bottom of the order was the key at getting the rally going here, with Mauricio Dubón opening the frame with a single and moving to third on Dominic Smith’s single (off the glove of second baseman Brett Baty). After Dubón scored on an errant pickoff throw, Austin Riley singled, and Eli White worked a walk to load the bases, the Mets started getting closer Devin Williams hot in a hurry.

He didn’t hurry enough.

Brazobán got Jorge Mateo to strike out, but leadoff man Drake Baldwin poked a sinker in the bottom of the zone 383 feet to left, just over the outstretched glove of outfielder Tyrone Taylor for his first career grand slam. What was a seven-run lead entering the inning was now only two, and Williams was called on to put out the fire that Brazobán started.

He got Ozzie Albies to strike out thanks to some nasty shadows between home and the mound, but Matt Olson fought through the glare to double off of Williams’ vaunted changeup. That same changeup, this time in the dirt, allowed Olson to advance to third before Michael Harris II drove him in with a single to first - Harris beat Williams to the bag despite the closer receiving the throw ahead of Harris.

Williams was not confident in where the bag was and took extra care to look down and find first base, allowing Harris’ speed to be the difference here.

After Mauricio Dubón singled to left, Harris not only beat the throw to third but getting that defensive attention from Taylor allowed Dubón, who was representing the winning run, to advance to second on the throw.

Alas, Dominic Smith struck out to end the inning and the game, despite getting up 0-2 on Williams, by taking a fastball and then swinging through both an elevated heater and a changeup below the zone.

Today’s Player of the Game

With a special commendation to Michael Harris, who was 2-5 with three RBI today, we’re giving it to Drake Baldwin.

Baldwin was moved out of the leadoff spot after going 2-26 with 15 strikeouts in his first week back. Moving him back down didn’t immediately help, either, with the catcher going 0-21 against the Padres and Giants on the road. He only struck out nine times in six games, though, and Atlanta reinstated him to leadoff last week versus the Cardinals.

Today was the denouement of that decision, with Baldwin getting two hits, including the grand slam, getting on base three times, and scoring twice. He’s not fully back, evidenced by still struggling to pull the trigger on fastballs in the zone, but he’s much better than his June batting average might portray and if he can provide some thump from the top of the order again, that would go a long way to fixing some of Atlanta’s offense woes that doomed the team’s record in the month of July.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The decision to allow Carlos Carrasco to pitch the 9th inning, which resulted in New York scoring five runs and pushing their lead to 10-3.

Just arguing that Atlanta using a different reliever there, one that would have kept the game scoreless, is a simplistic reduction of the dynamics of a baseball game - if it’s a two-run game entering the 9th, does Atlanta still get to face Brazobán, or does Devin Williams start the inning on the mound? Do the Braves still get to him when he has time to warm up, as compared to how sloppy he was when first rushed in to replace Brazobán?

But also, Walt Weiss didn’t have much of a choice here, just like he didn’t when Carrasco got a second inning against the Padres a few weeks ago (and promptly gave up a game-tying home run to Fernando Tatis Jr.).

The Braves are running with a seven-man bullpen at the moment, necessitated by the unavailability of starter Bryce Elder, who was skipped from his scheduled rotation turn this weekend. Having one fewer relief arm plus having absorbed several short starts in the last week meant that Weiss was down to Carrasco and leverage relievers Raisel Iglesias and Didier Fuentes to start the ninth.

With Atlanta’s offense having produced a grand total of four baserunners in the 2nd through 8th innings of the game (and with two of those being in the 2nd inning), it’s understandable that Weiss chose not to use one of his leverage arms with a deficit in the middle of a 13-games-in-13-days stretch.

While it’s true that the Braves need a better long relief option than Carrasco on the roster (and it’s time for the DFA-to-minor-league-contract carousel to stop), it’s also true that Atlanta’s offense gave zero indication that they were capable of surmounting a two-run deficit in the 9th, regardless of how many runs and homers they had in the first two games of the series.

Also, if Pérez doesn’t take a comebacker off the forearm in the 5th and has to leave the game, one that Weiss confirmed will likely send him to the injured list, he probably finishes the inning and there’s another reliever available in lieu of Fuentes or Iglesias for the 9th.

Blame for this loss goes on a lot of places: the schedule not having an off day, Elder’s fatigue requiring the team to carry an extra starter this weekend, and the roster construction decisions that put Carrasco on the roster before it goes on Weiss for using him in the 9th inning.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves still have a chance to win the series in Monday’s finale, which is (mercifully) back on BravesVision. Reynaldo López (4-1, 3.31) takes on Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.81) at 7:15 PM ET.