The Atlanta Braves dropped their series opener to the Miami Marlins 3-0 in loanDepot Park on Friday night.
Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.
The Turning Point
This season, we’ve seen Grant Holmes give up absolute missiles to opposing hitters - his average exit velocity allowed this season, entering tonight, is a 1st percentile 91.3 mph - and yet, somehow, escape his outings with minimal runs on the board.
Tonight was no exception, except for the whole “runs on the board” part.
Holmes, who came out behind an opener tonight (more on that in a minute) got got by Miami catcher Joe Mack in the seventh inning, giving up a solo shot on a first-pitch curveball that was just barely clipping the zone down.
Two more runs scored off of Didier Fuentes in the 8th, on a triple and a home run, but the Holmes outing is what I want to break down in more detail.
Entering in the 4th inning, he officially went four innings with one run allowed on three hits, walking three and striking out only one. (Walt Weiss confirmed that the low pitch count, only 54, was intentional.) And as always, the process is my concern here.
Of the 13 balls Holmes allowed in play, nine were hard-hit and the average exit velocity he allowed was an absurd 97.3 mph. The saving grace here is that five of those were groundouts thanks to Holmes leading with the sinker for seemingly the first time all season, but this continues to be a very fine line that Holmes is walking. He allowed seven batted balls over 100 mph and somehow all but two of them were outs, including a 106.1 mph lineout with an expected batting average of .880 and a 101.5 mph (and 387-foot) lineout with an xBA of .480.
It’s not like the Braves have a lot of other options at this point in the calendar for a game three start in the Wild Card, if it gets that far, but it’s easy to see how this could go wrong for Holmes at the worst possible time.
Today’s Player of the Game
The Braves were one-hit in a complete-game shutout by the opposing pitcher. Picking a player of the game feels like it’s just not in the cards tonight.
What You’ll Be Talking About (that’s not the offense)
Atlanta’s experiment with Ray Kerr.
The veteran lefty was given the ball to start the game and asked to go as long as he effectively could, and it worked. Kerr went three innings with just two hits allowed (both singles in the first inning) and opened the second inning with a walk, but never allowed those runners to score.
He threw 32 pitches, 23 for strikes, and swapped out some of his usual curveballs for more sinkers. The tradeoff worked, too, with Kerr getting four groundball outs - three of them at 75 mph or below. The overall exit velocity allowed by Kerr was just 85.2 mph, too, so while he wasn’t exactly missing bats (two whiffs and no strikeouts), he was doing an excellent job of managing contact.
Kerr said that the ‘trial run’ was useful, because he was struggling during the day with the anticipation of making a start. “I was excited today. I had the little jitters because I didn’t know what to do all day, but other than that, pretty good. I got the feel now for it. I know exactly what it kind of takes to be a starter. Leading up to it, I was asking Holmes, ‘So like, when do you go out there? When do you stretch, do all that?’ So he gave me like a little guideline on what to do, and I followed it.”
And that experience is valuable, but I wish it had come against someone other than Miami. The Marlins had just three left-handed hitters in their lineup tonight, and Kerr gave up a single to one (Jakob Marsee) and a hard-hit lineout to another (Joe Mack). While his overall stats on the year are better against lefties than righties (and both have an OPS in the .400s off the lefty, so it’s not like he’s struggled in that department), it would have been nice to see a lineup stacked with left-handed hitters like Philadelphia could deploy next Tuesday.
We’ll see more of a standard bullpen game tomorrow, as Atlanta’s planning on using most of their relievers on Saturday before giving JR Ritchie a start in Sunday’s season finale.
Looking for more discussion about this game?
Well I hate to break it to you, but I watched most of this one at a steak dinner and then went to a Jason Isbell concert, so there was no postcast tonight. Instead, here’s the song they closed with, “King of Oklahoma”, albeit without the guitar duel tonight’s version included as part of the show’s finale.
What’s Next for the Braves?
Atlanta’s going full bullpen game tomorrow against Miami, with Brent Suter getting the ball as the opener. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM ET on BravesVision.
Kerr looked pretty good in his innings. That experiment went well. Holmes is another story, I don’t believe Holmes will ever be an effective starter. He gives up way too much contact without being a strong strikeout pitcher. I’m not even sure he can be an effective bullpen piece either. He should be part of a trade package for a good 3or 4 man and please no more reclamation projects. Get a good solid pitcher. I’m tired of the excuses by AA I know he could get solid pitchers, he’s just got to spend the money and be willing to trade some prospects.
Just the last 20 seconds of the below video is pertinent to last night's game.