Well, first of all, you made it no easier for me, as a Carolina fan, quoting Bill Belichick... Secondly, I'm not going to pull against them for any reason and I don't think AA is in a position to lose his job this year, no matter what. What I do question is, why in the world would we DFA Matteo, considering the contribution I understand that he makes in the clubhouse? You can guarantee that come next spring—unless they find some creative way of trading him and totally surprise me—Jurickson Profar will be on the opening day roster. And they will play him because they're paying him. That money is like a coat of Teflon.
Simple comp of 2 SPs from last night’s games. (IP / ER / Season ERA):
Grant Holmes: (6.0. / 0 / 3.67)
Joe Ryan: (5.1 / 4 / 3.65)
Holmes opponent is 17th in RPG and Ryan’s opponent is 23rd. Holmes at home, Ryan on the road. Holmes team won, Ryan’s team lost. Ryan has pitched about 20 more innings this season.
So, let’s discuss how AA would be a great GM if he gave up 2-3 top prospects for Ryan. But because he didn’t, he’s too conservative, too passive, cheap, yadayadayada.
Joe Ryan 2.7 fWAR, 21.2 K-BB%, 3.64 xFIP, 107 stuff+
Grant Holmes 0.4 fWAR, 9.9 K-BB%, 4.55 xFIP, 88 stuff+
Joe Ryan is a significantly better pitcher, just as Casey Mize, Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Kevin Gausman, and Dustin May are significantly better pitchers who could have all been acquired at the deadline.
Here are some more relevant stats. (Ryan and Detmers weren’t traded, and Soriano would have cost Hartman+, so I’ll leave them out.)
Projected ROS FIP:
Gausman: 3.83
Mahle: 4.07
Mize: 4.08
May: 4.17
Elder: 4.19
Actual xFIP:
Mize: 3.78
Gausman: 3.82
May: 3.88
Mahle: 4.11
Elder: 4.12
The Brewers paid way too much for May. Their system is so stacked with positional talent that maybe it won’t sting too much. But it’s not reasonable to ask AA to pay that for Dustin May.
Mize was expensive. I don’t fault AA for not wanting to pay Murphy or Briggs (plus) for him. How much does he really move the needle over what we already have?
Gausman was the move to make. But there is bad blood between both the Bluejays and AA and Gausman and the Braves. So, I’m not sure he was actually available to us.
DeGrom would have been absolutely perfect. Damn shame.
Well said. I want a great SP2 as well. But AA has put together a talented club and anything can happen in the playoffs. If the best starting 1-3 was the key to winning the WS, ‘90’s Braves would have 8 rings.
OK. Let’s delude ourselves into thinking that a rotation of Sale and a bunch of nothing can match up with a rotation of Skubal, Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani or a rotation of Miz, Harrison, and Henderson in the playoffs. Hoping that you can beat them with Sale and two bullpen games is like believing in the Easter bunny.
They only saw two SPs capable of moving the needle that much. Detroit didn't want to work with us, and DeGrom exercised his no-trade clause. The other options weren't enough of an upgrade to warrant the prospect cost.
He's not going to make a bad trade, even if it would increase our chances this year. How do you fault him for that, given the success he's had?
Trading for Casey Mize, or Jose Soriano, or Kevin Gausman, or Reid Detmers are not bad trades. Had they done it, their chances of success in the playoffs would increase markedly.
90% of prospects become suspects. We are holding onto several prospects who are likely never going to become MLB regulars while we run out a rotation of Chris Sale and nothing else.
But hey, as long as we win enough to keep asses in the seats at Truist, it’s all good.
I’m confused. I compared who we have with who we could have traded for, using the most relevant metrics available. What exactly am I stretching?
I’ll own being an AA apologist in the sense that, A) I trust he has a coherent system, and B) I think the results speak for themselves. We’re not the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, or even the Phillies—and, thankfully, we don’t operate like we are (see: Padres).
We can’t consistently acquire superstars on the open market. We have to identify and develop them internally. That means holding onto most of your prospects rather than trading away the next Baldwin, Harris, Schwellenbach, or Strider for a rental.
We have a recent World Series title, sustained regular-season success, two of the past five NL Rookies of the Year, another runner-up, and now a farm system that appears capable of replenishing the core and keeping the machine running. All built with international sanctions in place and minimal rookie pool money.
I understand wanting an SP2, but pardon me for not taking some of the AA criticism too seriously.
2021 wasn't that long ago. And I think we had the best odds in 2023 too, before untimely SP injuries. Who has more postseason success during that span? Only the Dodgers, who have massively outspent us and have the benefit of rostering Otahni for free, essentially.
I don't know how much more anyone can reasonably for. His system doesn't allow for making trades that it deems to hurt the team. Maybe that's a good thing.
Dylan Dodd needs to get more recognition - he's developed into a highly reliable lefty out of the pen. Can't have too many them.
I should write about him
On the bullpen, what are your thoughts on why Braves don’t seem higher on Karinchak.
Well, first of all, you made it no easier for me, as a Carolina fan, quoting Bill Belichick... Secondly, I'm not going to pull against them for any reason and I don't think AA is in a position to lose his job this year, no matter what. What I do question is, why in the world would we DFA Matteo, considering the contribution I understand that he makes in the clubhouse? You can guarantee that come next spring—unless they find some creative way of trading him and totally surprise me—Jurickson Profar will be on the opening day roster. And they will play him because they're paying him. That money is like a coat of Teflon.
Last night…Holmes was better than Ryan.
Simple comp of 2 SPs from last night’s games. (IP / ER / Season ERA):
Grant Holmes: (6.0. / 0 / 3.67)
Joe Ryan: (5.1 / 4 / 3.65)
Holmes opponent is 17th in RPG and Ryan’s opponent is 23rd. Holmes at home, Ryan on the road. Holmes team won, Ryan’s team lost. Ryan has pitched about 20 more innings this season.
So, let’s discuss how AA would be a great GM if he gave up 2-3 top prospects for Ryan. But because he didn’t, he’s too conservative, too passive, cheap, yadayadayada.
You want some more stats?
Joe Ryan 2.7 fWAR, 21.2 K-BB%, 3.64 xFIP, 107 stuff+
Grant Holmes 0.4 fWAR, 9.9 K-BB%, 4.55 xFIP, 88 stuff+
Joe Ryan is a significantly better pitcher, just as Casey Mize, Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Kevin Gausman, and Dustin May are significantly better pitchers who could have all been acquired at the deadline.
Here are some more relevant stats. (Ryan and Detmers weren’t traded, and Soriano would have cost Hartman+, so I’ll leave them out.)
Projected ROS FIP:
Gausman: 3.83
Mahle: 4.07
Mize: 4.08
May: 4.17
Elder: 4.19
Actual xFIP:
Mize: 3.78
Gausman: 3.82
May: 3.88
Mahle: 4.11
Elder: 4.12
The Brewers paid way too much for May. Their system is so stacked with positional talent that maybe it won’t sting too much. But it’s not reasonable to ask AA to pay that for Dustin May.
Mize was expensive. I don’t fault AA for not wanting to pay Murphy or Briggs (plus) for him. How much does he really move the needle over what we already have?
Gausman was the move to make. But there is bad blood between both the Bluejays and AA and Gausman and the Braves. So, I’m not sure he was actually available to us.
DeGrom would have been absolutely perfect. Damn shame.
Well said. I want a great SP2 as well. But AA has put together a talented club and anything can happen in the playoffs. If the best starting 1-3 was the key to winning the WS, ‘90’s Braves would have 8 rings.
OK. Let’s delude ourselves into thinking that a rotation of Sale and a bunch of nothing can match up with a rotation of Skubal, Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani or a rotation of Miz, Harrison, and Henderson in the playoffs. Hoping that you can beat them with Sale and two bullpen games is like believing in the Easter bunny.
They only saw two SPs capable of moving the needle that much. Detroit didn't want to work with us, and DeGrom exercised his no-trade clause. The other options weren't enough of an upgrade to warrant the prospect cost.
He's not going to make a bad trade, even if it would increase our chances this year. How do you fault him for that, given the success he's had?
Trading for Casey Mize, or Jose Soriano, or Kevin Gausman, or Reid Detmers are not bad trades. Had they done it, their chances of success in the playoffs would increase markedly.
90% of prospects become suspects. We are holding onto several prospects who are likely never going to become MLB regulars while we run out a rotation of Chris Sale and nothing else.
But hey, as long as we win enough to keep asses in the seats at Truist, it’s all good.
We are really trying to stretch things here to absolve AA of his inaction at the deadline.
I’m confused. I compared who we have with who we could have traded for, using the most relevant metrics available. What exactly am I stretching?
I’ll own being an AA apologist in the sense that, A) I trust he has a coherent system, and B) I think the results speak for themselves. We’re not the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, or even the Phillies—and, thankfully, we don’t operate like we are (see: Padres).
We can’t consistently acquire superstars on the open market. We have to identify and develop them internally. That means holding onto most of your prospects rather than trading away the next Baldwin, Harris, Schwellenbach, or Strider for a rental.
We have a recent World Series title, sustained regular-season success, two of the past five NL Rookies of the Year, another runner-up, and now a farm system that appears capable of replenishing the core and keeping the machine running. All built with international sanctions in place and minimal rookie pool money.
I understand wanting an SP2, but pardon me for not taking some of the AA criticism too seriously.
So we are fine with regular season success and little chance of postseason success
2021 wasn't that long ago. And I think we had the best odds in 2023 too, before untimely SP injuries. Who has more postseason success during that span? Only the Dodgers, who have massively outspent us and have the benefit of rostering Otahni for free, essentially.
I don't know how much more anyone can reasonably for. His system doesn't allow for making trades that it deems to hurt the team. Maybe that's a good thing.