Today’s Three Things: Jesús Luzardo and Grant Holmes Unexpectedly Duel on Monday Afternoon

Grant Holmes stepped up against division rival Philadelphia, even if the process doesn’t match the results.

The Atlanta Braves dropped a narrow pitching duel 1-0 to the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park on Monday, ending with a split of the four-game series.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the eighth inning.

Didier Fuentes was asked to handle the middle of the order in the 7th and did it on 14 pitches, striking out both Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott in the process.

He came back out for the eighth and was absolutely dominant…until he wasn’t.

After two quick strikeouts of J.T. Realmuto and Justin Crawford, the lineup turned over to MLB homer leader Kyle Schwarber. And Fuentes blinked first.

After getting up 2-2 thanks to a called strike on a slider and a swinging strike on a 99-mph fastball middle-away, Drake Baldwin called for a fastball up-and-away. Fuentes uncorked 100 mph…but missed the location. Schwarber didn’t.

The 108-mph blast off the facade of the second deck was Schwarber’s 43rd of the season and the more I think about it, the more frustrated I am.

First, let’s go to the called location: up and away, on the black.

What are we doing here? Schwarber’s already seen a fastball middle-away in this at-bat, so why give him a chance to try again on a similar location? If you’re dead set on throwing a fastball, elevate it well above the zone and hope to get chase.

But second, why are we throwing this guy a fastball anyway? Per Statcast’s Pitch Arsenal leaderboard, entering today, Schwarber was a top-25 hitter in all of baseball this season at hitting four-seamers. Only his teammate Bryce Harper was a bigger threat against heaters in this game. He’s actually been below-average at sliders this season, so keep throwing those down in the zone or below.

And third, why are we throwing to Schwarber anyway? He leads MLB in homers, and the guy behind him, Trea Turner, was 3-12 this series but is hitting just .240/.292/.378 on the season. Don’t let the team’s best hitter beat you (which I think I said backward on the postgame show, frustratingly).

Today’s Player of the Game

I’m giving it to Grant Holmes, but I don’t like it.

Holmes stepped up in a big way, rebounding from loading the bases on two walks and a single in the first inning to deliver six scoreless innings. He struck out six with just three total hits allowed, picking up 17 whiffs (39%) and a 33% CSW.

But the reason I’m not happy about it is that while the results were great, the process was terrifying. Holmes allowed fourteen balls to be put into play and ten of them were hard-hit, with the average exit velocity off of him being an absurd 98.7 mph.

Yep. 98.7 mph. Reminder: a hard-hit ball is only 95 mph. The fact that only four of these rockets fell for hits is, frankly, amazing.

The slider, which has six whiffs on fifteen swings, was the only pitch type to not have an avg EV of over 95 mph…and it was close, coming in at 94.7.

I’m sorry, but that’s not sustainable. It worked out today, as it’s worked out more often than not, but it’s arguably the biggest thing holding Grant Holmes back from being a reliable #3 starter.

What You’ll Be Talking About

A lot of Braves Country seems to be up in arms about Atlanta’s offense having only two hits today, both singles, and allowing Jesús Luzardo to go the distance in a complete-game shutout.

And sure, that isn’t great. But at the same time, he’s one of MLB’s best starters and a terrible matchup for Atlanta’s lefty-heavy lineup. The Braves gave him too much help, with Drake Baldwin in particular having some fits against that sweeper.

I’d rather talk about the big picture here.

Atlanta came into this series with a four-game lead in the NL East. They’re leaving the series with a…four-game lead. The Braves, who have struggled on the road (especially in the 2nd half), did exactly what they needed to do - got at least a series split.

And as we do, the process is more important to me than the results.

Philly scored 2, 4, 4, and 1 run in this series. Atlanta’s run differential for the long weekend is +1.

To extend this: Atlanta’s 5-1 with a +11 run differential against the Dodgers this season and 3-3 with a -5 run differential against Milwaukee.

The Braves have, pretty consistently, shown that they’re up to the task of taking on the best teams in the National League and holding their own. Sure, they’re prone to occasional slip-ups against inferior competition (they’re 6-7 against the Mets this year), but for the most part, Atlanta’s 43-30 record against teams over .500 (second only to Milwaukee’s 49-26) shows that they’re legitimately one of the better teams in the entire NL and have the pieces they need to battle in October.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, where I went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are heading home to face the Rays for three games this week. Here are the expected pitching matchups for the series:

Tue: AJ Smith-Shawver vs Freddy Peralta
Wed: Reynaldo López vs Griffin Jax
Thu: Martín Pérez vs Nick Martinez