A while back, Lindsay wrote an article about how AA had a regret from his time as Toronto GM where he didn't trade for Ian Happ (I believe) at the trade dead line and instead was HOPING an injured player would return. The injured player did not return. AA did not trade for Happ and it came back to bite the Blue Jays in the butt. AA said he learned his lesson, HOPE is not a strategy.
But that's EXACTLY what he did at this trade dead line! Yes, he got Tyler Mahle who has, arguably, been the best pitcher acquisition (with the possible exception of Skubal) at the trade dead line. But we needed TWO starting pitchers and more offensive help than a platoon bat in LF (who is now injured and likely lost for the season).
We had the Profar money to spend. But AA decided it was Skubal/deGrom or bust. AA was HOPING that Strider, Schwelly, Waldrep or ReLo would return or that Ritchie/Murphy would be ready to help the big league club and NONE OF THAT HAS COME TO FRUITION!! This week we have seen ReLo is done for the year and maybe his career and neither Ritchie (for all his improvement in AAA in missing bats) nor Murphy is ready for the bright lights of October baseball. HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY!
Now, we are reduced to "rehabbing" Robert Suarez in the major leagues in the last week of the season, HOPING he can come back and be a force in the back-end of the bullpen in the playoffs. We have Sale in game 1. We have Mahle in game 2. We do not have a #3 starter you feel good about. Anyone who says they are confident in either Perez or Holmes in a win or go home game 3 in the playoffs is deluding themselves. And our offense seemingly only does damage against middle relievers.
Could this team catch lightning in bottle and win the WS like 2021? Yes. Is this is what is most likely to happen? Not in my opinion. AA said he learned his lesson, but it sure doesn't look like it do me. Hope is not a strategy. But that's what the Braves are left with.
Is that moves have as much, if not more, risk than counting on guys in the organization to get healthy or develop. The pitcher I thought AA should get at the deadline was Mize.
Looking at the standings… it’s time to balance rest and staying sharp for the regulars, hopefully getting Suarez back and giving the young guys playing time. The remaining games are as close to meaningless as you can get. The die is cast in the NL. The only realistic position move is for the Padres to pass the Phillies in the wildcard standings. Who would Braves rather face in a 3 game series Padres or Phils?
In all honesty, both of them scare me in different ways. For whatever reason, we have trouble with the Padres. Manny Machado can be playing like absolute dog poop but when he see the Braves uniform he transforms into prime Barry Bonds. The Phillies, as we all know, have owned us over the past few playoffs. Their starting pitching and Schwarber/Harper are what scares me about the Phillies. Perhaps not quite as scary as in the past with Luzardo on the IL (but likely to return for the playoffs) and Wheeler seemingly a bit more vulnerable than in the past. But as our offense has shown, we have the ability to make even a journeyman pitcher look like Cy effing Young.
Although obvious, winning Sale's game 1 start is crucial to the Braves post-season success. The problem with game 1 is we're facing the other team's best pitcher (if they've been able to line their pitching up for the playoffs) and while Sale may only give up a run or two, that may be enough against our offense.
Winning the NL East will be nice, but I think we all had aspirations for bigger things when the season started.
Would you be surprised if the Braves go two, through and a BBQ in the playoffs? I wouldn't.
Losing always stinks, but I can live with this one. The organization has to give Ritchie and Owen innings in the big leagues. It is the only way they will develop into getting big leaguers out. They’ve proven themselves at every level of the minors and the organization and fans may have to live with some rough outings. Analytics only take players so far. Nothing will ever replace experience. Same goes for AJ returning from TJ surgery. Organizational pitching depth is critical in today’s game. Chasing after top end FA pitchers is akin to going to Vegas hoping to win this month’s mortgage payment. btw… it was a different time, but Glavine’s GS / ERA in his first 2 MLB seasons were 9 / 5.54 and 34 / 4.56.. I’m kinda glad Braves didn’t give up on him after a few rough starts.
At this point none of the surgery pitchers from this year can be counted on to return and produce good results. Anyone not named Sale or Mahle (maybe Perez) could be called a frontline starter. AA has got to go out and get two really good arms this offseason regardless of cost so we at least have a real rotation. That also means resigning Mahle too. I just not impressed with any of the kids as a possible starter for next season.
Re: This season/post-season: I don't think the Braves need more "regular season" arms. Have a plethera of #4/#5 alternatives. And, this season, Sale, Mahle and Perez/Holmes looks to be a good three starters. But without Robert Suarez, the mystery of Dylan Lee, etc., I'm shaky about the bullpen.
But the real problem comes in scoring runs. Not only has Dubon been over worked (Kim didn't work, Ronald's two IR stints, Harris injuries and got rid of Eli for a $5.2MM .220 hitter who is IR), but the Braves have made Olsen's "iron man" crap primary over resting him along the way for team purposes, continued to play Riley although he will likely set the strikeout record for a season for the Atlanta Braves, etc. That is the reason a team goes from #1 offense and #1 pitching in March, April & May to unpredictable for the rest of the season. That is the reason this team has lost its MoJo. The mistake was not resting guys even when doing so might have meant losses and mad fans. A team has to plan for Big Mo to surface in September and October, when it counts, even to the deficiet of the "regular season"/exhibition games/post-season qualifier games". I'm tired of seeing AA's picks for "talent" (e.g., Kim, Yaz, Thomas, etc.) and dropping talent (Eli, Bart, Mateo) while sticking with the injured-to-death salary-suckers.
A while back, Lindsay wrote an article about how AA had a regret from his time as Toronto GM where he didn't trade for Ian Happ (I believe) at the trade dead line and instead was HOPING an injured player would return. The injured player did not return. AA did not trade for Happ and it came back to bite the Blue Jays in the butt. AA said he learned his lesson, HOPE is not a strategy.
But that's EXACTLY what he did at this trade dead line! Yes, he got Tyler Mahle who has, arguably, been the best pitcher acquisition (with the possible exception of Skubal) at the trade dead line. But we needed TWO starting pitchers and more offensive help than a platoon bat in LF (who is now injured and likely lost for the season).
We had the Profar money to spend. But AA decided it was Skubal/deGrom or bust. AA was HOPING that Strider, Schwelly, Waldrep or ReLo would return or that Ritchie/Murphy would be ready to help the big league club and NONE OF THAT HAS COME TO FRUITION!! This week we have seen ReLo is done for the year and maybe his career and neither Ritchie (for all his improvement in AAA in missing bats) nor Murphy is ready for the bright lights of October baseball. HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY!
Now, we are reduced to "rehabbing" Robert Suarez in the major leagues in the last week of the season, HOPING he can come back and be a force in the back-end of the bullpen in the playoffs. We have Sale in game 1. We have Mahle in game 2. We do not have a #3 starter you feel good about. Anyone who says they are confident in either Perez or Holmes in a win or go home game 3 in the playoffs is deluding themselves. And our offense seemingly only does damage against middle relievers.
Could this team catch lightning in bottle and win the WS like 2021? Yes. Is this is what is most likely to happen? Not in my opinion. AA said he learned his lesson, but it sure doesn't look like it do me. Hope is not a strategy. But that's what the Braves are left with.
Ben Zobrist, not Ian Happ. Other than that, though, spot on
Thanks for correcting the error!
Always enjoy your comments John. The part we forget when we expect AA to do something
Is that moves have as much, if not more, risk than counting on guys in the organization to get healthy or develop. The pitcher I thought AA should get at the deadline was Mize.
Looking at the standings… it’s time to balance rest and staying sharp for the regulars, hopefully getting Suarez back and giving the young guys playing time. The remaining games are as close to meaningless as you can get. The die is cast in the NL. The only realistic position move is for the Padres to pass the Phillies in the wildcard standings. Who would Braves rather face in a 3 game series Padres or Phils?
In all honesty, both of them scare me in different ways. For whatever reason, we have trouble with the Padres. Manny Machado can be playing like absolute dog poop but when he see the Braves uniform he transforms into prime Barry Bonds. The Phillies, as we all know, have owned us over the past few playoffs. Their starting pitching and Schwarber/Harper are what scares me about the Phillies. Perhaps not quite as scary as in the past with Luzardo on the IL (but likely to return for the playoffs) and Wheeler seemingly a bit more vulnerable than in the past. But as our offense has shown, we have the ability to make even a journeyman pitcher look like Cy effing Young.
Although obvious, winning Sale's game 1 start is crucial to the Braves post-season success. The problem with game 1 is we're facing the other team's best pitcher (if they've been able to line their pitching up for the playoffs) and while Sale may only give up a run or two, that may be enough against our offense.
Winning the NL East will be nice, but I think we all had aspirations for bigger things when the season started.
Would you be surprised if the Braves go two, through and a BBQ in the playoffs? I wouldn't.
Losing always stinks, but I can live with this one. The organization has to give Ritchie and Owen innings in the big leagues. It is the only way they will develop into getting big leaguers out. They’ve proven themselves at every level of the minors and the organization and fans may have to live with some rough outings. Analytics only take players so far. Nothing will ever replace experience. Same goes for AJ returning from TJ surgery. Organizational pitching depth is critical in today’s game. Chasing after top end FA pitchers is akin to going to Vegas hoping to win this month’s mortgage payment. btw… it was a different time, but Glavine’s GS / ERA in his first 2 MLB seasons were 9 / 5.54 and 34 / 4.56.. I’m kinda glad Braves didn’t give up on him after a few rough starts.
Thanks JR for validating my opinion that someone else (like de Grandpre) should have been promoted.
Hopefully you can develop another pitch and at least be a back- end starter.
At this point none of the surgery pitchers from this year can be counted on to return and produce good results. Anyone not named Sale or Mahle (maybe Perez) could be called a frontline starter. AA has got to go out and get two really good arms this offseason regardless of cost so we at least have a real rotation. That also means resigning Mahle too. I just not impressed with any of the kids as a possible starter for next season.
Re: This season/post-season: I don't think the Braves need more "regular season" arms. Have a plethera of #4/#5 alternatives. And, this season, Sale, Mahle and Perez/Holmes looks to be a good three starters. But without Robert Suarez, the mystery of Dylan Lee, etc., I'm shaky about the bullpen.
But the real problem comes in scoring runs. Not only has Dubon been over worked (Kim didn't work, Ronald's two IR stints, Harris injuries and got rid of Eli for a $5.2MM .220 hitter who is IR), but the Braves have made Olsen's "iron man" crap primary over resting him along the way for team purposes, continued to play Riley although he will likely set the strikeout record for a season for the Atlanta Braves, etc. That is the reason a team goes from #1 offense and #1 pitching in March, April & May to unpredictable for the rest of the season. That is the reason this team has lost its MoJo. The mistake was not resting guys even when doing so might have meant losses and mad fans. A team has to plan for Big Mo to surface in September and October, when it counts, even to the deficiet of the "regular season"/exhibition games/post-season qualifier games". I'm tired of seeing AA's picks for "talent" (e.g., Kim, Yaz, Thomas, etc.) and dropping talent (Eli, Bart, Mateo) while sticking with the injured-to-death salary-suckers.