The Atlanta Braves dropped game two to the Tampa Bay Rays 7-2 in Truist Park on Wednesday night.
Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.
The Turning Point
It came in the 4th inning.
And once again, just like last night, it was frustrating.
Already up 3-0, Tampa scored three more runs to push their lead to six, and did it with only one hard-hit ball, a leadoff single from Victor Mesa Jr. Chandler Simpson then drew a five-pitch walk, advancing to third on a Cedric Mullins 74.5 mph single that scored Mesa. Richie Palacios had his own 79 mph single, scoring Simpson and advancing Mullins to second. After a sacrifice bunt pushed both runners 90 feet closer, a Yandy Diaz sacrifice fly scored Mullins from third base.
It’s a similar sequence to the three-run second inning. After a one-out homer from Mesa, Simpson singled up the middle, Richie Palacios walked, and both runners stole to get into scoring position before being driven in by a 70.5 mph single from Mateo.
Frustratingly, the Rays had six different singles at 75 mph or softer in this one, a stark contrast to Atlanta’s 11 outs in their 13 hard-hit balls. That’s 23 outs in 29 hard-hit balls in this series for the Braves, despite a hard-hit ball in MLB this season producing a .488 avg/.965 slug and a .610 wOBA. Atlanta actually didn’t chase that much against starter Griffin Jax, coming in at just 31%, and finished with just ten whiffs and five strikeouts on the night.
And yet, they lost by five runs. That’s baseball, Suzyn?
Today’s Player of the Game
The young catcher, working at DH so that Sean Murphy could catch Reynaldo López, had a solo homer in the 4th to get Atlanta on the board and, after walking in the sixth, came around to score.
The home run was a welcome sight - Baldwin’s been in a bit of a power outage recently, with this being just his third extra-base hit of the month. But he got a 3-1 sinker on the black inside, knee-high, and got it up and into the Braves bullpen.
While Matt Olson’s slump has gotten a lot of the attention, Baldwin’s slug dropping from .510 in July to .404 in August to just .300 entering tonight was a concerning trend that’s led several to ask if he needs to be given his first healthy day off of the season.
What You’ll Be Talking About
Once again, it’s a tough outing from Atlanta’s starter, with Reynaldo López getting charged with six runs on seven hits and three walks in just 4.2 innings.
The three walks all came to lefties, which was expected, and he offset it with five strikeouts. But despite the runs making his results come in well short of acceptable, the process probably deserves a closer look.
López managed to suppress hard contact, allowing only five hard-hit balls on 15 batted-ball events and an average exit velocity of just 84.6 mph. At the same time, it’s probably worth caveating that somewhat; the Rays weren’t always trying to swing for power, just put the ball into play, as their six singles of 74 mph or lower will attest.
He also finished with 11 whiffs (30%) and a 25% CSW, with the slider missing bats at a 35% clip. The four-seamer, though, was the problem tonight. His 2026 season average of 94.2 mph (already down from 2024’s 95.5) was just 93.5 tonight, and he got exactly two whiffs on 17 swings against the heater.
And with this level of Stuff - Thomas Nestico has López with an overall Stuff+ score of just 98, led with a 100 on the slider - it’s hard to see October effectiveness out of the package. The four-seamer had neither the velocity nor the movement - he lost an inch of IVB today, coming in at a slightly below-average 16 inches - to reliably miss bats. ReyLo was only able to break 95 three times, with two of those coming in the second inning; this isn’t the 2024 version that could sit 95, reach back to get 97 with a runner on base, and 99 when that runner was in scoring position with two outs.
This is more of a contact management profile, which the Braves currently have on the roster. At this point, barring a significant leap in the Stuff, it’s hard to envision López being the choice to start a game three in the playoffs for the Braves.
Looking for more discussion about this game?
Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.
What’s Next for the Braves?
Atlanta’s looking to avert a sweep early tomorrow, with Martín Pérez (8-9, 3.25) taking on Nick Martinez (14-4, 3.04) at 12:15 PM ET on BravesVision.
Great hat last night! I’m confident it’ll lead to the offense getting it together.
We didn't pitch it well enough for the bad BABIP/hard hit ball/xBA to matter...